Previous choice studies have proposed a way to condition the utility of each alternative in a choice set on experience with the alternatives accumulated over previous periods, defined either as a mode used or not in a most recent trip, or the mode chosen in their most recent trip and the number of similar one-way trips made during the last week. The paper found that the overall statistical performance of the mixed logit model improved significantly, suggesting that this conditioning idea has merit. Experience was treated as an exogenous influence linked to the scale of the random component, and to that extent it captures some amount of the heterogeneity in unobserved effects, purging them of potential endogeneity. The current paper continues to investigate the matter of endogeneity versus exogeneity. The proposed approach implements the control function method through the experience conditioning feature in a choice model. We develop two choice models, both using stated preference data. The paper extends the received contribution in that we allow for the endogenous variable to have an impact on the attributes through a two stage method, called the Multiple Indicator Solution, originally implemented in a different context and for a single (quality) attribute, in which stage two is the popular control function method. In the first stage, the entire utility expression associated with all observed attributes is conditioned on the prior experience with an alternative. Hence, we are capturing possible correlates associated with each and every attribute and not just one selected attribute. We find evidence of potential endogeneity. The purging exercise however, results in both statistical similarities and differences in time and cost choice elasticities and mean estimates of the value of travel time savings. We are able to identify a very practical method to correct for possible endogeneity under experience conditioning that will encourage researchers and practitioners to use such an approach in more advanced non-linear discrete choice models as a matter of routine.
Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.
Transportation - Transport systems in China face extreme capacity shortages during the Spring Festival travel season. This study therefore explores traveler’s decision making behavior when... 相似文献
Transportation - The paper studies a general bidirectional public transport line along which demand varies by line section. The length of line sections also varies, and therefore their contribution... 相似文献
Transportation - Stated choice surveys have established themselves as the preferred approach for value of travel time elicitation with the help of choice models. However, major differences exist in... 相似文献
The continued growth and evolution of the offshore wind industry, and the emergence of other novel marine uses such as wave and tidal generators, have upped the ante for spatial planners, as well as consenting and approval authorities in various coastal states. These stakeholders rely on processes such as navigational risk assessments (NRAs) to balance safety and efficiency requirements and to make optimal decisions over use of space. Given the increasingly complex and crowded seascape, however, there are some apprehensions about potential shortcomings in these NRA processes. There is also some concern that these inadequacies may lead to unsafe or inefficient marine spatial use. To understand how NRA processes can be improved further, a literature review is conducted, followed by a survey of respondents who are involved in the planning, consenting and/or approval of offshore wind farms across seven different countries. A summary of the NRA processes in these seven countries is presented, and several shortcomings are identified. Based on the findings of the survey, a list of recommendations is presented to enhance existing NRA processes—and to improve the coexistence of shipping and offshore wind farms (OWFs). 相似文献