Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence

This paper analyzes households’ decision to change their car ownership level in response to actions/decisions regarding mobility issues and other household events. Following recent literature on the importance of critical events for mobility decisions, it focuses on the relationship between specific events (e.g. childbirth and buying an extra car), rather than trying to explain the status of car ownership from a set of stationary explanatory variables. In particular, it is hypothesized that changes in household car ownership level take place in response to stressors, resulting from changed household needs or aspirations. The study includes a broad range of events. Apart from changes in work status, employer and residential location, it analyzes demographic events such as household formation and childbirth. Also, it scrutinizes the temporal sequence in which chains of related events are most likely to occur. To this end, data from a retrospective survey that records respondents’ car ownership status, as well as residential and household situation over the past 20 years are used. A panel analysis has been carried out to disentangle typical relationships. The results suggest that strong and simultaneous relationships exist between car ownership changes and household formation and dissolution processes. Childbirth and residential relocation invoke car ownership changes. Changes are also made in anticipation of future events such as employer change and childbirth. Childbirth is associated with increasing the number of cars, whereas the effect of employer change goes the opposite way. Job change increases the probability of car ownership change in the following year.     

Coordination problems in container barging in the port of Rotterdam: an institutional analysis

Container barging has gained in importance in port-related transport along with the need for sustainable transport. Nevertheless, coordination problems between terminal operator and barge operator exist, and performance lags behind. This paper analyses factors that may hinder or stimulate a better future performance of container barging in the port of Rotterdam. A case study is accomplished and guided by a framework rooted in Institutional Economics. Despite favourable conditions set by governments and the port authority, the share of container barging has hardly grown. The container barging sector in Rotterdam is embedded in a history with many alliances, a high degree of organisation, and a good track record in the development of institutional arrangements to solve coordination problems. However, the present contractual relations in the transport chain form an inadequate condition. From a theoretical perspective, the paper shows the value of studying port-related transport chains by acknowledging their institutional context.     

Estimating induced travel for evaluation of metropolitan highway expansion

This paper demonstrates how induced travel can be estimated for incorporation into the evaluation process for highway expansion projects, at a sketch planning level of analysis. The approach is useful especially in cases where four-step urban travel models are either unavailable or are unable to forecast the full induced demand effects. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical freeway expansion analysis. Our analysis suggests that the magnitude of travel induced by highway expansion increases significantly as a function of initial congestion levels prior to expansion. However, under even extreme scenarios of initial congestion and consequent forecasted induced travel, there is a positive impact with respect to congestion relief.     

Information impact on quality of multimodal travel choices: conceptualizations and empirical analyses

This paper investigates the impact of a variety of travel information types on the quality of travel choices. Choice quality is measured by comparing observed choices made under conditions of incomplete knowledge with predicted choice probabilities under complete knowledge. Furthermore, the potential impact of travel information is considered along multiple attribute-dimensions of alternatives, rather than in terms of travel time reductions only. Data is obtained from a choice experiment in a multimodal travel simulator in combination with a web-based mode-choice experiment. A Structural Equation Model is estimated to test a series of hypothesized direct and indirect relations between a traveler’s knowledge levels, information acquisition behavior and the resulting travel-choice quality. The estimation results support the hypothesized relations, which provides evidence of validity and applicability of the developed measure of travel-choice quality. Furthermore, found relations in general provide some careful support for the often expected impact of information on the quality of travel choices. The effects are largest for information services that generate previously unknown alternatives, and lowest for services that provide warnings in case of high travel times only.

欧洲最新的市郊电动车组

对用于市郊运输的瑞士Flirt、奥地利Elektro-Talent和波兰EN95 3种电动车组进行了技术比较。     

Adaptive choice behaviour of motorists in congested shopping centre parking lots

Currently existing models of parking choice behaviour typically focus on the choice of types of parking spaces. Implicitly these models assume that motorists have a free choice in that spaces are available. The adaptive behaviour which they reveal when faced with congested parking spaces is not explicitly modelled. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the growing literature on parking choice modelling by developing and testing a stated choice model of adaptive behaviour of motorists who are faced with fully occupied parking lots. The findings of the analyses indicate that the model performs satisfactory as indicated by its goodness-of-fit and the fact that all significant parameters were in anticipated directions.     

The identification of factors influencing destination choice: An application of the repertory grid methodology

A common problem of all cognitive-behavioural models of destination choice is that of the identification of factors influencing the behaviour of interest. This paper considers the applicability of Kelly's repertory grid methodology to identify the factors influencing consumer choice of shopping centres. Firstly, some methodological issues in the assessment of the relative importance people attach to certain variables in deciding where to shop are discussed. Secondly, the main findings of an application of the repertory grid methodology are presented. The paper concludes by discussing some implications of the measurement of the determinants of choice behaviour and the construction of mathematical models of destination choice.     

准备在荷兰营运的Sprinter电动车组

介绍了荷兰新型Sprinter电动车组的结构特点以及主要的技术参数。     

Incorporating time and income constraints in dynamic agent-based models of activity generation and time use: Approach and illustration

Existing theories and models in economics and transportation treat households’ decisions regarding allocation of time and income to activities as a resource-allocation optimization problem. This stands in contrast with the dynamic nature of day-by-day activity-travel choices. Therefore, in the present paper we propose a different approach to model activity generation and allocation decisions of individuals and households that acknowledges the dynamic nature of the behavior. A dynamic representation of time and money allocation decisions is necessary to properly understand the impact of new technologies on day to day variations in travel and activity patterns and on performance of transportation systems. We propose an agent-based model where agents, rather than acting on the basis of a resource allocation solution for a given time period, make resource allocation decisions on a day-by-day basis taking into account day-varying conditions and at the same time respecting available budgets over a longer time horizon. Agents that share a household interact and allocate household tasks and budgets among each other. We introduce the agent-based model and formally discuss the properties of the model. The approach is illustrated on the basis of simulation of behavior in time and space.     

TransNIEMO: economic impact analysis using a model of consistent inter-regional economic and network equilibria

We describe a model that integrates a multiregional input–output (I–O) model of the USA (for 50 States and the District of Columbia) with the national highway network. Inter-state commodity shipments are placed on a congestible highway network. Simulations of major choke-point disruptions redirect traffic which increases the costs of some shipments. Increased costs show up in higher prices which help to determine a new I–O equilibrium. We find economic and network equilibria that are consistent. The simulations show only moderate economic impacts. We ascribe this to the resilience of the highway network. The model provides State-level detail on who bears the costs of the disruptions.