Investment strategies in market uncertainty

The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions.     

The coastal edge of the Northeast Water polynya in spring 1993

Multidisciplinary, marine ecological observations were conducted at the shallow water edge of the Northeast Water in June, 1993. Although variable in size and shape, a small polynya was constantly present at Eskimonaes, at the fast-ice edge of Ingolfsfjord. A shallow stratified layer developed at the water sufface at negative water and air temperatures—an effect of sea ice melting in cold water early in the season. Nutrients were recorded in considerable quantities, although by mid July NO₃ had become depleted. The chlorophyll and phytoplankton maxima at 8–12 m depth had peak values of 2 mg chl a m⁻³, typical for Arctic algal blooms. The phytoplankton included over 90 species and was dominated by the Fragillariopsis group. Zooplankton was poor in biomass and density, but over 23 taxa were found, with the copepods Oithona similis and Pseudocalanus acuspes being numerically dominant. Sedimentation was approximately 0.2 g dry weight m⁻² d⁻¹ and suspended matter concentrations ranged from 4 to 19 mg l⁻¹. The benthos was represented by hard bottom forms only, with a surprisingly dense cover of macrophytes. Juvenile sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis), brittle stars (Ophiocten sericeum) and amphipods were dominant. Higher trophic levels were represented by benthic feeders, such as eiders and walruses. The area observed was more similar to high Arctic fjord ecosystems than to the offshore central Northeast Water polynya.     

地震作用下高速铁路桥梁的动力响应及行车安全性研究

将桥梁在地震作用下的运动方程和车辆振动方程，通过桥梁子系统与车辆子系统间的非线性轮轨接触关系联系起来，建立可考虑多点激励与行波效应的车桥系统地震反应动力学分析模型。以某高速铁路连续梁桥为例，对非一致地震激励下桥梁结构的动力响应及桥上车辆运行安全性进行研究，提出确保地震发生时高速列车在桥上安全运行的临界速度限值，可供实际工程设计时参考。     

交通仿真技术在高速公路改扩建保通中的应用

高速公路的改扩建约束条件较多,研究和制定高速公路改扩建工程施工期间交通保障方案具有重要意义。文中简述了交通仿真的基本概念,并以仿真软件TSIS中的FRESIM模型建立连霍高速公路(郑州段)交通仿真模型,分析研究连霍高速公路(郑州段)加宽扩建施工中的最合适限制车速。     

德国铁路电力机车动车概况

简要介绍德国铁路现有电力机车动车的各种系列、数量和主要改进.     

Valuation of externalities through neo-classical methods by including institutional variables

Externalities are uncompensated influences that are not expressed in a market but that affect the production possibilities or the welfare level of third parties. An example is the noise pollution in airport areas. Although air transport is an important source of economic growth and employment in many countries, the social and environmental problems connected with this sector are rising rapidly. Consequently, airports are becoming a matter of concern to many politicians. On what kind of values should they base their decisions as to further growth or consolidation of the current situation? In this paper we discuss two approaches, one based on mainstream, neo-classical, economics, and one based on institutional approaches, more in particular new institutional economics, which can be seen as a development complementary to the mainstream.     

京广线提速道岔更换研究

铁路第六次提速,京广线要达到 200km/h,这就要求把既有线上的固定辙叉道岔更换为可动心轨辙叉道岔,消除辙叉有害空间。介绍了京广线既有道岔的现状和更换过程中存在的技术问题,并提出了建议。     

郑州站道岔改造设计方案比选

介绍了京广线上直达列车通过郑州站道岔改造设计几种方案的比选,确保提速调图后直达列车以80km/h速度顺利通过郑州站。     

赤峰至大板至白音华铁路主要技术标准的选择

以赤大白铁路为例,介绍地方铁路主要技术标准确定应注意的问题,在重点保证投资方经济效益的同时兼顾社会效益,实现多方共赢。     

Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.