公交信息的乘客光环效应

光环效应是一种特殊的非理性心理现象，可利用其改善公交乘客的满意度.本文认为显著维度光环效应指标除了满足对总体满意度作用系数最大外，还应新增 3个基本特征，据此提出了一种新的基于多个特征的显著维度光环效应指标辨识方法，克服了单个特征有时错误识别的缺陷.基于 2017年武汉市公交乘客满意度数据，利用双因素和决策树法辨识潜在的显著维度光环效应指标，缩小辨识范围.利用各分项满意度指标的影响人群比例，评分均值与总体满意度关系，对总体满意度的作用系数，评分方差等精确辨识了显著维度光环效应指标. 研究发现，公交信息服务对 55.42%的乘客具有反向光环效应.改善公交信息服务可显著提高不满意乘客的满意度.     

Transport and nation‐state governments worldwide: a further review

The review undertaken in this Paper shows how, in 1984, governments of nation‐states of the world deal with the important function of Transport. In all 115 countries are included and, with the information now given, it is possible to compare the situation with 1981–82, and also have a current global view of affairs affecting Transport as managed by governments. Such a review is part of the service which Transport Reviews provides for its readers. It is hoped to conduct a further review in 1988.     

The implications of MARPOL Annex V on the management of ports and coastal communities

Abstract

The passage of the Marine Plastics Pollution Research and Control Act of 1987 (MPPRCA), which codified Annex V of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), has encompassed every commercial and recreational shipping and boating facility in the United States. As a group, these ports, harbors, and marinas form a significant, although proportionately small, portion of the coastline of the country. More important, the economic benefits derived from the complex shoreside infrastructures required for international ocean trade, commercial and recreational fishing, and pleasure boating indicate just how critical it is for these facilities to be in conformance with effective and prudent coastal zone and environmental management practices.     

Estimating traffic demand risk – A multiscale analysis

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the traffic demand risk associated with transportation. Using mathematical properties of wavelets, we develop a statistical measure of traffic demand sensitivity with respect to GDP. This measure can be adapted in a flexible way to capture risk levels relevant for different investment horizons. We demonstrate the timescale decomposition of risk with Swedish traffic demand data for 1950–2005. In general, rail transport shows a stronger co-movement with GDP than road transport. Moreover, we examine the volatility exhibited by traffic demand. Our findings suggest that rail investments are more risky than road investments. Since the findings can be used for optimal investment timing and for choice between public investment alternatives, they are deemed important for public policy in general.     

Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.     

非对称边缘率标线对弯道驾驶人横向位置调整的影响机理

为了揭示非对称边缘率标线对弯道驾驶人横向位置调整的影响机理,在高速公路弯道上开展路上试验,分别布设2种不同的非对称边缘率标线,采集了断面车速、车头时距及左右车轮在车道的横向位置等数据,运用结构方程模型研究了影响路径。结果表明:驾驶人偏离感知速度大的一侧,标准路径系数为-0.46;驾驶人通过降低车速来减小内外侧感知速度差异,内外侧感知速度差异越大,减速幅度越大,越偏向曲线内侧,标准路径系数为0.08;两侧感知速度差异增大能提高驾驶人弯道车速危险性感知,使驾驶人降低车速进而影响车辆横向位置,标准路径系数为0.03;边缘率标线通过增大驾驶人感知速度间接影响车辆横向位置,标准路径系数为0.14;距离内外侧标线距离的标准路径系数分别为0.26和-0.28。各路径影响效果合成后,驾驶人整体上偏离速度感知大的一侧。     

Quantifying travel time variability at a single bottleneck based on stochastic capacity and demand distributions

Travel time reliability, an essential factor in traveler route and departure time decisions, serves as an important quality of service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This article investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying travel time variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity and demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based travel time function and a point queue model are used to demonstrate how day-to-day travel time variability can be explained from the underlying demand and capacity variations. One important finding is that closed-form solutions can be derived to formulate travel time variations as a function of random demand/capacity distributions, but there are certain cases in which a closed-form expression does not exist and numerical approximation methods are required. This article also uses probabilistic capacity reduction information to estimate time-dependent travel time variability distributions under conditions of non-recurring traffic congestion. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous and practically useful tools for understanding the causes of travel time unreliability and evaluating the system-wide benefit of reducing demand and capacity variability.     

Decision support for risk assessment of mid-air collisions via population-based measures

Specifying proximity warning functions for aircraft in managed airspace has received considerable attention. However, similar functions for aircraft operating in unmanaged airspace have received comparatively little analysis despite the fact that these functions are stressed to a greater physical degree, and perhaps more frequently, than in managed airspace. The mid-air collision hazard and its associated risk are re-examined from both an historical and a systematic engineering modelling viewpoint. Historic measures of this transport risk in managed airspace have been based on fatalities normalized by flight hours or flight movements. However some of these data may not be available in unmanaged airspace. Another approach to measurement directs attention to populations at risk where several measures are now well known: collective risk, individual risk and the frequency of occurrence of the hazards that give rise to such risk. A decision support methodology is presented that relates both transport and population-based approaches. A cohesive and consistent set of aspired goals for various stakeholder groups can be set taking into account the different stakeholder needs. A case study is drawn from historic mid-air collision data to illustrate the process. A consistent basis for national-level policy decisions harmonised with proactive engineering design requirements is achieved. The strengths, limitations and implications of this approach for engineering design purposes are discussed.     

机场道面钻芯劈裂强度的尺寸效应系数

通过对比相同配合比下的室内标准模制圆柱体混凝土试样与现场试验板钻芯标准芯样之间的劈裂强度,探讨了钻芯取样测试对劈裂强度的影响;通过对不同长度芯样的劈裂强度进行对比,研究了试样长度对芯样劈裂强度的影响规律。结果表明:由于钻芯过程产生的损伤及试验板与模制圆柱体试件的混凝土拌和、振捣、养护条件不同,导致钻芯法测得的混凝土劈裂强度相比室内试验降低15.7%;另外由于圆柱体试件的长度增加,混凝土试件的受力平面也随之增大,平面内存在的微裂缝、微孔洞的数量也会随之增多,导致随着试样长度的减小,测得的试样劈裂强度逐渐增大。最终得出国内某通用机场新建飞行区工程的劈裂强度与长度的修正系数。     

Large oil tankers and the Baltic marine environment: A statistical survey

The short Baltic export route for Russian oil is an attractive source of supply for the European energy market. The article examines the Russian oil export trade in the Baltic based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from 2005 matched with supplementary data. The first part of the article gives a survey of activities and characteristics of 261 large crude oil tankers, their flag states and owner countries. The second part views the data in the context of accidental oil spill risk. Greek and Russian owners are leading carriers in this trade. Russia plays a double leading role as oil exporter and shipowning country, securing major cargo shares for nationally owned vessels, while also giving a preferential spot in the trade to Greek owners. Where environmental aspects are concerned, previous research has linked vessel characteristics with the risk of casualty. Knowledge of flag, age, ownership and activity levels adds useful information about environmental risk. The data show that flags associated with very high casualty or detention probabilities were represented by 18% of the activity in this trade. Older vessels have a similar share, and at this particular time probably represent the more serious threat of accidental oil spills.