Analysis of cost estimation disclosure in environmental impact statements for surface transportation projects

Reliability in cost estimates in publicly funded projects is more important today than ever with increased governmental funding to infrastructure projects and associated accountability requirements, but surface transportation projects, large and small, in the United States have a legacy of cost overruns. The problems with these overruns start with the cost estimation process before projects begin. Studies have shown that early cost estimations reflect best-case scenarios rather than realistic expectations, and have attributed technical, economic, psychological, and political reasons for underestimation. The primary objectives of this research were to determine how costs have been presented and updated in environmental impact statements, to identify endemic technical problems with cost estimation during the environmental review of surface transportation projects, and to develop recommendations for improving cost estimation and disclosure. Cost estimation methods were analyzed from the documents of 100 projects, including draft environmental impact statements, final environmental impact statements, and records of decision. The study concluded that the lack of guidance on how to include cost estimation in environmental review revealed itself in the level of detail and attention given to estimating costs. Agencies omitted or included various aspects of cost estimation randomly. Professional organizations should fill the gap of the need for specific guidance to cost estimation for environmental review so it can evolve as a state of the practice.     

Managing passenger behavioral intention: an integrated framework for service quality,satisfaction, perceived value,and switching barriers

This paper seeks to improve our understanding of passengers’ behavioral intention by proposing an integrated framework from the attitudinal perspective. According to the literature in marketing research, we establish a causal relationship model that considers “service quality-satisfaction-behavioral intentions” paradigm, perceived value theory, and switching barrier theory. Exploring passengers’ behavioral intention from satisfaction and perceived value help to understand how passengers are attracted by the company, while switching barriers assist in realizing how passengers are “locked” into a relationship with the current company. Furthermore, in order to capture the nature of service quality, we adopt a hierarchical factor structure which serves service quality as the higher-order factor. In this study, coach industry is selected as our research subject. The empirical results, as hypothesized, show that all causal relationships are statistically significant, and perceived value us the most important predictor of satisfaction and passengers’ behavioral intention. In conclusion, the managerial implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Minimum Efficient Scale (MES) and preferred scale of container terminals

The decision on the scale of a port terminal affects the terminal’s managerial, operational and competitive position in all the phases of its life. It also affects competition structures in the port in which the terminal is operating, and has a potential impact on other terminals. Port authorities and terminal operators need to know the scale of the terminal when engaging in concession agreements. In economic theory the scale of a plant/firm is typically defined in relation to the Minimum Efficient Scale (MES), the long-run output where the internal economies of scale are fully exploited. However, there are a number of theoretical and empirical indications that in ports the scale of a terminal is commonly guided by a combination of the MES and other determining factors. The “preferred” scale is the result of a complex interaction between the MES, the port governance framework and objectives, the market size and structure, technological change and operational considerations, physical and geographical limitations, and the business patterns of shipping lines. This study analyses the factors resulting in a preferred container terminal scale that in most of the times is different from the MES. The analysis of the technical, market-related and governance-related factors is supported by theoretical and empirical insights that illustrate the presence of a range of actual ”preferred” scales of terminal concessions that usually are different, below or above, MES.     

Statistical and dynamical analyses of propagation mechanisms of solitary internal waves in a two-layer stratification

The blocking effect of submarine ridges on the propagation of internal solitary waves (ISWs) over the topography of the seabed results in the fission of the solitary waves that accompany the generation of reflected and transmitted waves. In this study, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is used to investigate the inseparable relationship between the transmission and reflection. An examination of the error sums of squares and cross-products (SSCP) matrix and the correction matrix shows that the correlation between the transmission (at/ai) and reflection coefficients (ar/ai) is quite low (0.284). Moreover, from multivariate testing, including Pillai’s trace, Wilks’ lambda, Hotelling’s trace and Roy’s largest root, we conclude that the ridge height has a large effect (η = 0.456) on both the amplitude of the transmitted and reflected waves, as well as large (η = 0.411) and very large (η = 0.469) effects on the amplitudes of the transmitted and reflected waves, respectively. In conclusion, the results in the present study highlight the importance of the role played by ridge height in coherent ISW transmission and reflection during oceanic wave–ridge interactions.     

Broaching prediction of a wave-piercing tumblehome vessel with twin screws and twin rudders

The new intact stability criteria which are under development at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are required to cover a broaching phenomenon, well known as a great threat to high-speed vessels which can lead to capsizing. Some reports exist which demonstrate that their numerical models can predict a highly nonlinear phenomenon of broaching. However, additional validation studies are needed for unconventional vessels, in addition to conventional ones, to develop direct stability assessment methods for the new intact stability criteria. In this research, we selected as the subject ship a wave-piercing tumblehome vessel with twin screws and twin rudders, a design expected to be one of a new generation of high-speed monohull ships. Firstly, a series of captive model tests were conducted to measure the resistance, the manoeuvring forces, the wave-exciting forces, the heel-induced hydrodynamic forces, and the roll restoring variation for the unconventional tumblehome vessel. Secondly, the existing mathematical model which had been developed for broaching prediction of conventional vessels with a single propeller and a single rudder was extended to unconventional vessels with twin propellers and twin rudders. Finally, comparisons between numerical simulations and the existing free running model experiments were conducted. As a result, it was demonstrated that fair quantitative prediction of broaching is realised when the rudder force variation, the roll restoring variation and the heel-induced hydrodynamic force for large heel angles are taken into account.     

Parametric rolling prediction in irregular seas using combination of deterministic ship dynamics and probabilistic wave theory

In recent years there have been reports of serious accidents of parametric rolling for modern container ships and car carriers. For avoiding such accidents, a prediction method of parametric rolling in irregular seas is required. Since parametric rolling is practically non-ergodic, repetitions of numerical simulations or experiments could be not feasible to ascertain the behaviour. Therefore, in this paper, a method combining a stochastic approach with a deterministic approach in order to estimate the probabilistic index without such simple repetitions is developed. The ship's response in regular seas is estimated by solving an averaged system of the original 1-DoF roll model, and random waves necessary for occurrence of parametric rolling is achieved by using Longuet-Higgins’s or Kimura’s wave group theory. As a result, a fast and robust computation method of the probabilistic index is established. Finally, it is concluded that the proposed method is considered to be one of the useful tools for discussing the new IMO Intact Stability Code.     

Hydroelasto-plasticity approach to predicting the post-ultimate strength behavior of a ship’s hull girder in waves

Dynamic collapse behavior of a ship’s hull girder in waves is investigated; post-ultimate strength behavior is the focus. Firstly, a simulation method is proposed. Assuming that a plastic hinge is formed during the collapse of the hull girder, the whole ship is modeled as two rigid bodies connected amidship via a nonlinear rotational spring. The post-ultimate strength behavior, such as the reduction of load carrying capacity due to buckling and yielding, is reflected in the model. Hydrodynamic loads are evaluated by using nonlinear strip theory to account for the effect of large plastic deformations on the loads. A scaled model for validation of the simulation is designed and fabricated. Then a series of tank tests is conducted using the scaled model to validate the simulation results. Post-ultimate strength behavior characteristics in waves are clarified by using the numerical and tank test results. It is shown that the hull girder collapses rapidly after reaching ultimate strength, and then the plastic deformation grows until unloading starts at the collapsed section. Finally, several parametric dependencies of the extent of the collapse behavior are discussed based on a series of the simulations.     

Investigation on transient dynamic behaviors of low-tension undersea cables

This paper presents a numerical analysis of the dynamic transient behaviors of undersea cables. In this numerical study, the governing equations based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory are adopted, and they can satisfy many applications no matter what the magnitude of the cable tension is. The nonlinear coupled equations are solved by a popular central finite difference method, and the numerical results of transient behaviors are presented when several kinds of surrounding conditions, such as different towing speeds of surface vessel, different currents and waves with various frequencies and amplitudes, are exerted. Then a detailed comparison of the results, including the upper end tension and cable shape in time-domain, is made under the above external excitations, and finally the possible reasons for these are further explained.     

Determination of interfacial heat flux of stainless steel solidification on copper substrate during the first 0.2 s

Interfacial heat transfer is a key issue in many solidification processes. In the paper, a novel experimental apparatus has been designed and on this basis, the instantaneous interfacial heat transfer between molten steel or solidified shell and copper substrate during the first 0.2 s has been studied. The investigated parameters include melt superheat, substrate temperature and surface roughness. The results show that the peak value of the interfacial heat flux in the first stage of liquid/solid contact increases with melt superheat and changes slightly with substrate temperature and surface roughness. The interfacial heat flux in the stage of solid/solid contact has a similar trend of slow decrease in most conditions.     

Industry foundation classes based integration of architectural design and structural analysis

The numerous construction projects in China provide the best environment for the development of information technology applied in building design. Various commercial CAD/CAE software applications are purchased by design firms for multi-disciplinary design tasks. However, researches on integration and interoperability are seldom considered. This study pursues a breakthrough point of integration in the architectural and structural domains and expects further development in other aspects. A central building information modeling (BIM) framework based on the industry foundation classes (IFC) is proposed to handle the data exchange between IFC-compatible architectural models and structural models. A central XML(extensible markup language)-based unified finite element model (FEM) is proposed for model conversion among various commercial structural CAE software applications. In addition to bidirectional data interfaces among IFC-based BIM, XML-based FEM and various commercial FEMs, some other components such as visualization, calculation and model editing/check are also equipped into the prototype system.