Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

     

盾构隧道整体道床剥离病害规律研究北大核心CSCD

盾构隧道整体道床的剥离病害已严重影响地铁的安全运营。为研究整体道床剥离病害的规律,文章以国内某运营地铁线路为工程背景,建立整体道床-管片-注浆层数值模型进行分析研究。结果表明:列车轮组作用在道床一侧靠近伸缩缝位置时会引起较大的道床剥离变形,是最不利位置;列车荷载在振动作用下引起的剥离量远大于静载作用时的,且两者间存在函数关系;伸缩缝位置是最易发生剥离的区域,剥离首先发生在伸缩缝两侧边缘,随列车动载作用时间增加,剥离区域扩展至伸缩缝1.5 m范围内;注浆层刚度与接触面黏结强度均是影响剥离量的重要因素,提升注浆层刚度和道床-管片接触面的黏结强度可有效减少剥离量。     

A selection method of offshore production systems considering uncertainties

Journal of Marine Science and Technology - The development of an offshore deepwater oilfield is a complex and risky task. One core problem in this project is the selection of a production system...     

An application of a rank ordered probit modeling approach to understanding level of interest in autonomous vehicles

Surveys of behavior could benefit from information about people’s relative ranking of choice alternatives. Rank ordered data are often collected in stated preference surveys where respondents are asked to rank hypothetical alternatives (rather than choose a single alternative) to better understand their relative preferences. Despite the widespread interest in collecting data on and modeling people’s preferences for choice alternatives, rank-ordered data are rarely collected in travel surveys and very little progress has been made in the ability to rigorously model such data and obtain reliable parameter estimates. This paper presents a rank ordered probit modeling approach that overcomes limitations associated with prior approaches in analyzing rank ordered data. The efficacy of the rank ordered probit modeling methodology is demonstrated through an application of the model to understand preferences for alternative configurations of autonomous vehicles (AV) using the 2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study survey data set. The methodology offers behaviorally intuitive model results with a variety of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, including age, gender, household income, education, employment and household structure, significantly influencing preference for alternative configurations of AV adoption, ownership, and shared usage. The ability to estimate rank ordered probit models offers a pathway for better utilizing rank ordered data to understand preferences and recognize that choices may not be absolute in many instances.     

The Gini index of demand imbalances in public transport

Transportation - The paper studies a general bidirectional public transport line along which demand varies by line section. The length of line sections also varies, and therefore their contribution...     

Fully autonomous vehicles: analyzing transportation network performance and operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area,Canada

Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to considerably change urban mobility in the future. This study simulates potential AV operating scenarios in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, and assesses transportation system performance on a regional level. For each scenario, the base capacities of certain types of road links are modified to simulate the theoretical increase in throughput enabled by AV driving behavior. Another scenario examines driverless parking operations in downtown Toronto. Simulation results indicate that the increased attractiveness of freeways relative to other routes leads to slightly increased average travel distance as vehicles divert to access higher capacity road links. Average travel time is found to decrease by up to one-fifth at the 90% AV market penetration level. Concurrently, localized increases in congestion suggest that proactive transportation planning will be needed to mitigate negative consequences of AV adoption, especially in relation to induced demand for personal automobile travel.     

Turbo-Coded Modulation of EVRC Speech Encoder with Unequal Error Protection for Fading Channels

The Enhanced Variable Rate Codec (EVRC) is a standard for the Speech Service Opti6n 3 for Wideband Spread Spectrum Digital System, which has been employed in both IS-95 cellular systems and ANSI J-STC-008 PCS (Personal Communications Systems). This paper investigated the combination of turbo codes with Unequal Error Protection (UEP) and 16-QAM modulation for EVRC codec of Rate 1 to get power and bandwidth efficient coding scheme. The results show that the UEP system outperforms the Equal Error Protection (EEP) one by 1.45dB at BER of 10^-5.     

A New Explicit Algorithm for Bi-Phasic Mixture Flow in MIM

Metal injection moulding (MIM) is a new technology to manufacture small intricate parts in large quantity. Numerical simulation plays an important role in its development. To predict the specific segregation effect in MIM injection, mixture theory is adopted to model the injection flow by a bi-phasic model. This model conducts to the solution of two-coupled Stokes equations. It is an extremely computational consuming solution in the scope of the traditional algorithms, which induce a serious challenge to cost-effectivity of the MIM simulation. Referred to some methods proposed by Lewis in mono-phasic simulation and the implicit algorithms in MIM simulation, a new explicit algorithm is proposed and realized to perform efficiently this type of bi-phasic flow. Numerically this algorithm is devised to perform the simulation in a fully uncoupled manner except for a global solution of the pressure field in each time step. The physical coupling is taken into account in a sequential pattern by fractional steps. This special algorithm does not need any iteration, so it is straightforward and robust, suitable for MIM simulation and other sorts of simulations for multi-phasic flow.     

MULTIPLE TRANS-ACTING FACTORS MEDIATE THE INDUCTION OF C-FOS IN VASCULAR SMO

ＭＵＬＴＩＰＬＥＴＲＡＮＳ－ＡＣＴＩＮＧＦＡＣＴＯＲＳＭＥＤＩＡＴＥＴＨＥＩＮＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＯＦＣ－ＦＯＳＩＮＶＡＳＣＵＬＡＲＳＭＯＯＴＨＭＵＳＣＬＥＣＥＬＬＳＣｈｅｎＹａｎｑｕｎ；ＢａｒｔｅｋＲｙｄｚｅｗｓｋｉ，ＡｌｌｅｎＪ．Ｎａｆｔｉｌａｎ（Ｄｅ...     

肾素-血管紧张素与盐敏感高血压

目的　证实在大鼠的正常清醒时间 (夜间 ) ,高盐食物加剧终生服用开博通的自发性高血压大鼠 (SHR)的升压效应 ,并诱发终生服用开博通 (Captopril)之正常血压大鼠 (WKY)的这种反应。方法　将SHR和WKY鼠分为不服用开博通、终生服用开博通和在给予高盐食物前两周停用开博通三组 ,继之再各分为两组 ,饲以正常盐或高盐两种不同食物。血压采取无线遥测系统进行 2 4h连续观测。结果　终生服用开博通之SHR组 ,高盐食物引致动脉血压的快速增高 ,停药后这种盐敏感性血压升高无明显变化。高盐食物也诱发终生服用开博通之WKY鼠的动脉血压迅速升高 ,停药后也无明显变化。而高盐食物不增高对照组WKY鼠的平均动脉压。结论　终生服用开博通可使SHR及WKY鼠对高盐食物所致动脉血压反应发生改变。长期的肾素 -血管紧张素转换酶抑制对心血管系统可能具有长时效应 ,而不依赖于持续服用开博通