国民生产总值年增长对货运周转量增长间关系分析

随着国民经济的发展，货运周转量与国民生产总值呈上升趋势。通常情况下，宏观经济时间序列都存在着一定的自相关性，用一般的线性统计回归无法对两者关系进行准确的研究。介绍了协整以及格兰杰因果检验，对中国货运周转量增量和GDP增量2个时间序列为对象进行实证，证明了它们之间存在着稳定的联动关系。     

关于赴日本参加2015年国际野生动物管理学大会的报告

为了跟踪国际道路生态学最新发展趋势,了解东亚邻国在道路生态学领域的最新进展,交 通运输部科学研究院派团出席在日本北海道举行的2015 年国际野生动物管理学大会“道路生态学 分论坛”和“道路生态学圆桌会议”。期间,交通运输部科学研究院代表团与加拿大、德国、韩 国、日本、新加坡、中国台湾等国家和地区的道路生态学家们进行了广泛而深入的交流,并展示 了交通运输部科学研究院在长白山区道路野生动物保护领域取得的成果。会后,与会人员共同考 察了日本北海道道路野生动物保护示范工程,包括Doto 高速公路、Obihiro-Hiroo 高速公路、国道 235 和国道236。通过本次出访,我们认为：道路野生动物保护已经成为道路生态学研究的重要内 容,在东亚地区受到了广泛重视,但整体仍存在诸多不足,我国有望在道路生态学的发展方面做 出决定性贡献。     

岩溶区地基注浆加固处理技术

汉蔡高速公路红庙互通区匝道构筑物在基础开挖过程中发现存在大量溶洞,部分溶洞涌水严重,无法继续开挖。根据专家论证会的意见,建议采用注浆加固。通过对此段地质条件分析,提出了岩溶区注浆加固的方法。     

隧道超欠挖检测信息系统设计与实现

针对隧道超欠挖控制的关键因素检测及爆破后效果评价需求,研制了炮眼钻孔检测杆,开发了隧道超欠挖检测手机APP和B/S版隧道超欠挖检测信息化管理平台。利用手机APP连接钻孔检测杆及全站仪,对炮眼钻孔三维角度信息、位置信息及爆破后隧道断面进行检测、计算及传输,实现了隧道爆破过程检测及爆破断面效果评价,为后续动态调整爆破参数及超欠挖控制研究提供有效辅助。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

动力装置虚拟协同训练系统设计

针对某型动力装置实装训练成本高、装备损耗大以及存在较大安全隐患等问题,设计一种以计算机为主要硬件运行环境、以SimuWorks仿真平台为基础的装备协同虚拟训练系统。该系统采用SimuMMI进行二维人机交互界面的开发,通过图片和动画实现阀门、管路、仪表等设备的动态逻辑实时交互功能;通过多流程的仿真设计模式实现人员多岗位、全系统、多工况的训练模式。应用结果表明:该系统与实际装备具有高度相似性,能够实时仿真某型系统运行状态,满足多人多岗位协同训练要求,提高训练效率,降低训练成本。     

第三方物流企业作业成本控制研究

第三方物流企业竞争日趋激烈,准确核算和有效控制成本成为第三方物流企业提高管理水平、增强市场竞争优势的关键。本文探讨了作业成本法在第三方物流企业成本控制中的应用,研究企业如何根据未来物流服务的需求,确定未来期间最优的约定作业能力水平,从而为企业的经营管理决策提供科学的依据。     

基于WITNESS的集装箱码头内部物流作业系统仿真建模

通过对现实集装箱码头公司的仿真模拟,可以体现WITNESS专业软件在进行码头物流作业仿真中的优异性能。WITNESS直观的显示以及统计功能,为码头公司进行物流系统设计改造提供了很好的帮助。     

Post-entry container port capacity expansion

Port capacity development is a critical strategy for the growth of a new port, as well as for the development of existing ones, when both new and existing ports serve the same hinterland but have different competitive conditions. To study this strategy, we develop a two-stage duopoly model that comprises the pricing and capacity decisions of two heterogeneous players serving an increasing market. We identify the necessary condition for a port to increase its profit through capacity expansion, and characterize the condition when preemptive pricing by the dominant player is neither credible nor effective in preventing the smaller player from gaining market share. We also find the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in the capacity expansion game for two ports that have different price sensitivities, as well as different operation and capacity investment costs. We apply the model results to the container port competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen after Shenzhen port started its container operation in 1991. Our analysis explains the transition of market power from monopoly to duopoly, the fast development of Shenzhen Port, and the possible market structure changes with the continuing increase in demand.     

公路桥梁大型钻孔灌注桩静载荷试验实录

笔者介绍了一大型钻孔灌注桩静载荷试验及桩身应力测试 ,并根据测试结果 ,重点分析了粘性土层中摩擦型灌注桩的承载力 变形特征 ,并对桩侧极限摩阻力及桩端承载力的取值问题进行了讨论 .本文得出的结论对今后大型钻孔灌注桩的设计及规范的修订具有参考价值