Some properties of international maritime statistics

This paper tests two fundamental hypotheses concerning international maritime statistics. The first one deals with the question of stationary of the maritime market statistics. The second hypothesis tested is the assumption that the international maritime statistical time series are not distributed according to a normal of Guassian probability law, but rather belong to the same family of distributions with distinctly different critical parameters. Through well documented statistical methods, the paper concludes that the international freight rates observed on a day to day basis are generated by a random walk process. The paper finds that the shipping industry's conventioal wisdom is essentially correct. 'Last done' is as good a forecast of tomorrow's freight rate as any other generated by more sophisticated forecasting methods. Furthermore, freight rates and secondhand tonnage prices fluctuate closely together. The freight rates are generated by stochastic processes fully described by the Paretian family of distributions. The critical parameters of these distribution, the characteristic exponents, are such that the risk conscious ship operator can indeed reduce his exposure to risk by securing a correct set of freight rate contracts.     

-statistic is the ratio between a normal (0,1) distributed variable and the square root of a centrally distributed chi-square variable divided by its expected value, i.e., its degree of freedom.

This paper evaluates empirically some very common theories of the freight rate generating process in the time charter markets. After a review of the most common assumptions made of the way time charter rates are set, the hypotheses are identified as follows: (a) the Zannetos Hypothesis, (b), the Lagged Zannetos Hypothesis, (c) the Koyck Lag Hypothesis, (d) the Rational Expectation Hypothesis, and (e) the Conventional Wisdom Hypothesis. These hypotheses are tested using statistical cointegration analysis that includes both an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and a Johansen likelihood ratio test. Confronted with the data, hypotheses (a) and (b) are rejected outrightly. In the Koyck Lag case, the ADF statistic seem to confirm the hypothesis. A closer look at the numbers reveals that all of the impact on the time charter rates comes from the lagged dependent variable. Hence, the Koyck Lag Hypothesis is rejected. In the Rational Expectation case, the two tests conflicted. Based on the fact that the Rational Expectation Hypothesis includes the lagged dependent variable and that the Johansen test has been found to be a more robust test than the ADF test, the Rational Expectation Hypothesis is rejected. The fifth hypothesis is a reflection of the general bulk industry perception that the time charter rate is impacted by changes in the comparable spot rate and not much by the spot rate levels. In this case both the ADF and the Johansen test accepted the hypothesis for all markets. Thus, the paper concludes that the conventional market explanation of the time charter freight rate setting process is essentially correct-spot rate changes matter spot rate levels do not.     

Potential of Real-Time Cylinder Pressure Analysis by Using Field Programmable Gate Arrays

In this paper, a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) was used to implement a real-time cylinder pressure analysis. The goal of the project was to improve the accuracy of calculated heat release and center of combustion calculations to enhance the precision of engine control functions. Compared to today’s real-time pressure analysis systems, several additional physical effects were taken into account for this objective. The wall heat transfer was calculated based on the approach published by Hohenberg. A chemical equilibrium with six substances was assumed for the mixture composition and a real-time calculation method was developed. Furthermore, a two-zone model was adapted and implemented for this realtime analysis. The validation of the results and the rating of the improvement in precision were based on GT-SUITE simulation results as an offline reference tool. Compared to state-of-the-art analysis systems, it was possible to reduce the average error of the center of combustion position from 1.6° to 0.5° crank angle (CA) by taking the investigated effects into account. Moreover, it was possible to significantly reduce the time required for the calculation from one complete combustion cycle to 0.2°CA at an engine speed of 3,000 rpm by using a continuous calculation method on the FPGA. This led to an additional improvement of the ability to control the engine, especially under highly dynamic operation conditions.     

Measuring Truck Travel Time Reliability Using Truck Probe GPS Data

Truck probe data collected by global positioning system (GPS) devices has gained increased attention as a source of truck mobility data, including measuring truck travel time reliability. Most reliability studies that apply GPS data are based on travel time observations retrieved from GPS data. The major challenges to using GPS data are small, nonrandom observation sets and low reading frequency. In contrast, using GPS spot speed (instantaneous speed recorded by GPS devices) directly can address these concerns. However, a recently introduced GPS spot-speed-based reliability metric that uses speed distribution does not provide a numerical value that would allow for a quantitative evaluation. In light of this, the research described in this article improves the current GPS spot speed distribution-based reliability approach by calculating the speed distribution coefficient of variation. An empirical investigation of truck travel time reliability on Interstate 5 in Seattle, WA, is performed. In addition, correlations are provided between the improved approach and a number of commonly used reliability measures. The reliability measures are not highly correlated, demonstrating that different measures provide different conclusions for the same underlying data and traffic conditions. The advantages and disadvantages of each measure are discussed and recommendations of the appropriate measures for different applications are presented.     

Impacts of combining partial and general equilibrium modelling in freight transport analyses – a forest sector case study from Norway

Abstract

The forest sector in Norway is very transport intensive, accounting for approximately 14% of total domestic freight transport traffic on Norwegian roads. This paper presents an analysis linking a general equilibrium freight transport modelling tool with a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. The freight transport model predicts transport costs, modal split and transport patterns, and the results are treated as inputs to the forest sector model. The objective of the paper is to analyse the modelling effect of taking forest sector model effects back into the freight transport model and treated as new demand. Compared to a base scenario for the year 2020, we compare analyses with and without this new demand from the forest sector model back into the freight transport modelling tool.     

Planning the driverless city

ABSTRACT

AV technologies have the potential to transform urban landscapes and existing transport systems and networks. Yet, the utopian imaginary of reduced automobile ownership and a new shared economic future sits in tension with suggestions that car dependency, urban sprawl and transport inaccessibility will be exacerbated. The issues are situated in a complex governance landscape involving an influential private sector who are increasingly setting the agenda. The public sector may be forced into reacting to the new innovations by information technology and automobile companies as they are introduced into existing built environments. Drawing on an extensive literature base and interviews with public sector planners, this paper reveals the conceptual gaps in the framing of AV technology – the prospects and limits – and how these are conceived. The paper raises questions about the role urban planning can play in the rollout of AVs in order to anticipate and mediate unwanted built environment and socio-spatial impacts, as well as reconciling the ambition of transport innovation with the public purpose of planning.     

综合安全评价在船舶动力装置中的应用

综合安全评价（FSA）是一种在工程技术与工程运行管理中用于制定合理可行的规则和提供风险控制的综合性、结构化和系统性的分析方法，将FSA引入到船舶动力装置的安全评价中，是对船舶安全评价的一次尝试，按照综合安全评价的五个步骤对影响船舶动力装置安全的因素进行了分析评价。具体应用时，使用故障树分析法以拉缸故障为实例做了定性和定量分析，根据评价结果提出了相应的安全管理措施，为船舶轮机人员及管理人员提供参考。     

) and annual payments (a) is a follows:

Modern management techniques are slowly but surely being introduced aslo in shipping management. Large sections of the industry practises strategic management at various levels in the firm. This paper outlines a method for deciding chartering strategies in the international bulk shipping industry. A well known risk/return model is tailored to transportation contracts in the shipping industry. The model delineates a set of optimally defined transportation contracts that may serve as a basis for the shipowner's strategic decisions. The strategies and elements of strategies suggested by the model have historically been practised by a number of successful shipowners. An important conclusion of the paper is that no second best problems exists and hence movement towarts the optimal solution is advocated even if such a solution cannot or will not be reached. Additionally, the paper provides an organized way of crafting, analysing and applying chartering strategies where the outcomes can be clearly defined and analysed based on well known statistical concepts and theories.     

An Airport Experience Framework from a Tourism Perspective

This study, by integrating the perspectives of sociological, psychological, and service marketing and management, all of which affect the passenger experience, proposes a theoretical framework for the creation of the airport experience in relation to tourism. This research responds to the current phenomenon in which airports are offering other types of experiences within the airport terminal, expanding the role of an airport from being a utility for transportation into a place where various and different values can be offered. This research explores the current airport experience and adds to research on airport experience by clarifying ten key components necessary for airport passenger experience propositions based on existing research, the current industry phenomena, and the empirical study. The paper also underlines those components that can enhance passenger experience in relation to tourism and highlights the role that airports contribute to a destination.     

多孔沥青混合料堵塞规律离散元仿真

为揭示多孔沥青混合料孔隙堵塞机理,开展了多孔沥青混合料堵塞模型试验与仿真模拟结合研究;基于电子计算机断层扫描与离散元软件PFC3D V5.0分析了多孔沥青混合料孔隙特征,得到了多孔沥青混合料的孔隙数据;在PFC3D V5.0中投放各粒径集料并根据孔隙特征生成压实虚拟试件,以MATLAB切片对比实际试件孔隙图像验证模型准确性;在自重条件下设置特定级配组成堵塞物侵入多孔沥青混合料试件模拟仿真,并以室内试验结果对照验证,改变投放堵塞物粒径,分析了试件孔隙衰变率,找出了堵塞敏感颗粒;在自重条件下引入流体模拟仿真试验,改变了流体渗流速度,分析了试件堵塞变化规律。研究结果表明：PFC3D V5.0生成的虚拟试件具备较高的精确度,仿真揭示了试件堵塞规律,小颗粒除堆积于喉孔处产生堵塞外,还会在嵌挤成型后与大粒径颗粒积聚产生堵塞;自重条件下的堵塞主要集中在混合料试件上层30 mm处,相应堵塞敏感颗粒粒径分布为0.150~0.600 mm,堵塞颗粒粒径分布对堵塞结果影响较大;在重力与流体条件下,随着渗流速度从0.005 m·s^-1增加到0.030 m·s^-1,孔隙衰变率变化速度增加,残留在混合料内部的堵塞物减少,孔隙衰变率减小,排水沥青路面在设计与养护时也需将当地降雨条件带入考虑。