In order to predict the monthly usage frequency of members of a car-sharing scheme by analysing the gradual change of behaviour over time, a new model is proposed based on the Markov Chains model with latent stages. The model accounts for changing patterns of frequency from soon after signing up to later stages by including five latent user ‘life stages’. In applying the model to panel data from Montreal’s free-floating carsharing service the authors calculate each user’s ’lifetime’ applied to ‘system operation time’, the time period since the start of the scheme. Three-fold validation reveals effective performance of the model for both lifetime and system operation time dimensions. The model is further applied to illustrate how previous carsharing experience and the extension of the scheme to a larger area can affect usage frequency changes. We conclude that this approach is effective for usage prediction for novel transport schemes.
Automated vehicles (AV) will change transport supply and influence travel demand. To evaluate those changes, existing travel demand models need to be extended. This paper presents ways of integrating characteristics of AV into traditional macroscopic travel demand models based on the four-step algorithm. It discusses two model extensions. The first extension allows incorporating impacts of AV on traffic flow performance by assigning specific passenger car unit factors that depend on roadway type and the capabilities of the vehicles. The second extension enables travel demand models to calculate demand changes caused by a different perception of travel time as the active driving time is reduced. The presented methods are applied to a use case of a regional macroscopic travel demand model. The basic assumption is that AV are considered highly but not fully automated and still require a driver for parts of the trip. Model results indicate that first-generation AV, probably being rather cautious, may decrease traffic performance. Further developed AV will improve performance on some parts of the network. Together with a reduction in active driving time, cars will become even more attractive, resulting in a modal shift towards car. Both circumstances lead to an increase in time spent and distance traveled.
Inspite of the inherent weaknesses in aggregate demand models, they continue to be used in everyday applications, especially in developing countries. The largely data intensive disaggregate model preclude its application in many cases. This paper attempts the formulation and calibration of an aggregate total demand model for estimating inter-district passenger travel by public transport in Sri Lanka. In its process, an investigation is made of the common problems in the aggregate approach while examining possible remedial measures to improve the accuracy and (hence) the usability of the aggregate model. It is argued that commonly used variables and functional forms are inappropriate for making accurate estimates in developing countries. Consequently, the model calibration is shown to incorporate variables representing urbanisation, under-development, transfers, a mode-abstract cost function and intrinsic features. The necessity for functional form for each variable to be based on behavioral assumptions that are tested using the Box-Cox transformation for ensuring the best fit of the data is also observed. Although, the model form was calibrated for Sri Lanka, the model is generalised in order for its applications to other countries as well as, both, inter-district and intercity travel demand estimation. 相似文献
Consider a city with several highly compact central business districts (CBD), and the commuters’ destinations from each of them are dispersed over the whole city. Since at a particular location inside the city the traffic movements from different CBDs share the same space and do not cancel out each other as in conventional fluid flow problems albeit travelling in different directions, the traffic flows from a CBD to the destinations over the city are considered as one commodity. The interaction of the traffic flows among different commodities is governed by a cost–flow relationship. The case of variable demand is considered. The primal formulation of the continuum equilibrium model is given and proved to satisfy the user optimal conditions, and the dual formulation of the problem and its complementary conditions are also discussed. A finite element method is then employed to solve the continuum problem. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. 相似文献
The early warning of incidents on urban arterial roads in a congested city can reduce delay, accidents and pollutant emission. Freeway incident detection systems implemented in recent years may not be suitable for arterial incidents. Arterial incident detection is more difficult. The traffic flow on an arterial road is not conserved from the upstream end of a road link to the downstream end because urban traffic does turn in and out of side‐streets, car‐parks and local residences. Roadside friction such as kerbside parking and shopping traffic also tends to create apparent incidents which are in fact frequent and normal events. This paper develops a definition for an arterial incident and describes a case study on an arterial road in Melbourne, Australia. The study shows that detectors upstream of an incident are more useful for incident detection than downstream detectors. It also identifies occupancy and speed as the appropriate parameters to characterise and detect arterial incidents. 相似文献
Traditionally, many economists have examined the models and economics of urban taxi services under various types of regulation such as entry restriction and price control in an aggregate way. Only recently have we modeled urban taxi services in a network context. A realistic method has been proposed to describe vacant and occupied taxi movements in a road network and taxi drivers' search behavior for customers. A few extensions have been made to deal with demand elasticity and congestion effects together with development of efficient solution algorithms. Calibration and validation of the network taxi service models have been conducted towards their practical applications. This paper presents an overview of the research that has been carried out by the authors to develop network equilibrium models and solution algorithms for urban taxi services, and offers perspectives for future researches. 相似文献
Area traffic control is an important element in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). This paper extends the lane‐based optimization method to a traffic equilibrium network, which improves the operational performance of signal‐controlled network. We formulate a decomposition approach to simultaneously optimize the lane markings and signal settings for a signal‐controlled network that comprises two levels of optimization. At the junction level, the lane markings, control sequence, and other aspects of the signal settings are optimized for individual junctions, whereas at the network level, the group‐based signal settings are optimized to take into account the re‐routing characteristics of travelers and signal coordination effects that are based on a TRANSYT traffic model, which is a well‐known procedure for evaluating the performance of signal‐controlled networks. We use a numerical example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. 相似文献
Transportation - This study examines the relationship between the supply and demand variables that determine the probability of individuals joining a carsharing organization, using data from the... 相似文献
The German Mobility Panel (MOP) is a national household travel survey, which has been collecting data on travel behavior in Germany since 1994. One of the MOP’s central assets is its ability to provide time-series data on travel behavior. Thus, the comparability of survey results from different years is a major objective of the survey method used. Declining survey participation rates in the last decade in various socio-demographic groups resulted in the implementation of a mixed-mode design for the MOP in 2013, both for the sampling stage (landline and mobile phone recruitment) and the data collection stage (paper and web). In this study, we analyze whether the adaptations in the survey mode do indeed improve the results and, if so, why and to what degree. Ideally, the survey mode adaptions have increased the representativeness of the MOP. However, measurement biases due to the mixed-mode design are also conceivable. To decompose survey mode effects, we applied the propensity score weighting method. This method imputes the hypothetical responses participants would have given in different survey modes; disparities between actual responses and hypothetical responses under another mode are then traced back to the mixed-mode design. Our analysis indicates that trip-rate biases on shopping, leisure, and short trips are partly caused by the mixed-mode design; in contrast, quantities of time spent in the transportation system, trips made by car and public transportation, and commuting trips are hardly biased.
Transportation - This study utilised the Swedish national travel survey covering a period of over 30 years. We investigated the long-term trends in activity-travel patterns of individuals... 相似文献