The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past

Abstract

This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making.     

An algorithm for combining autonomous vehicles and controlled events in driving simulator experiments

Autonomous vehicles can be used to create realistic simulations of surrounding vehicles in driving simulators. However, the use of autonomous vehicles makes it difficult to ensure reproducibility between subjects. In this paper, an effort is made to solve the problem by combining autonomous vehicles and controlled events. A controlled event can be compared to a theatre play. The aim is to achieve the same initial play conditions for each subject, which can be problematic since the traffic situation around the subject will be dependent upon each subject’s actions while driving in autonomous traffic. This paper presents an algorithm that achieves the transition from autonomous traffic to a predefined start condition for a play. The algorithm has been tested in the Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI) driving simulator III with promising results. In most of the cases we examined the algorithm could reconstruct the specified start condition and conduct the transition from autonomous to controlled mode in a inconspicuous way. Some problems were observed regarding moving unwanted vehicles away from the closest area around the simulator vehicle, and this part of the algorithm has to be enhanced. The experiment also showed that the subjects drove faster in the presence of controlled everyday life traffic normally used in the VTI driving simulator than in autonomous traffic.     

Benzene concentrations on board chemical tankers

Maritime transport of benzene is regulated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Two important guidelines for a ship’s crew in this matter are IMO circulars 1095 and 1220. The first one describes the minimum safety standards for ships carrying liquids in bulk containing benzene while circular 1220 deals with structural guidelines for new ships carrying liquids in bulk containing benzene, but also technical developments could help in improving safety and health protection on board chemical tankers carrying benzene in bulk. The aim of the present paper is to determine the benzene concentration in the working and living environment on board a modern chemical tanker carrying benzene in bulk, where all safety, technical and operational procedures described by IMO in the above-mentioned circulars are followed. During specific cargo operations, we measured the benzene concentrations on different locations on board by means of Radiello® passive diffusive samplers. Despite all measures taken, we found an important difference in benzene concentration between operations with a benzene cargo compared to operations without benzene on board, as well as inside and outside the accommodation. Moreover, even during discharge operations, where the emission is theoretically zero, we found an important increase in the benzene concentration. In addition, we found less favourable results for the engine room.     

The effects of highway development on housing prices

The purpose of this research is to estimate the effects of highway development projects on the price of housing. Transportation development projects, highways in particular, improve a certain area’s accessibility but also increase its levels of exposure to traffic intensity and noise pollution. These externalities are evaluated by homeowners and residents and are reflected in the price of housing. In this paper, we use several repeat sales model specifications, including difference-in-differences estimators, and control for neighborhood effects to examine housing price trends in the municipalities around two newly developed highways in the Netherlands. The results of the research demonstrate that changes in accessibility result in a significant positive effect on the price of housing in nearby municipalities, but that increased noise pollution and traffic intensity levels result in a decrease in prices. The findings also confirm that combining the total effects of all externalities, the effect of highway development on the price of housing is generally positive, and this effect is salient even before the project is completed due to public anticipation effects.     

Fatigue reliability—measured response of the heidrun TLP tethers

One of the most important uncertainties associated with fatigue damage of TLP tethers is the uncertainty related to fatigue loading. Higher–order load effects are important and such effects are very complicated to determine numerically. The Heidrun TLP was installed in the summer of 1995 and for this platform the forces in the top of the tethers are measured during the operational phase. In this paper the results of these measurements are discussed and compared with numerical calculations. It is shown how the measurements of fatigue loading can be used to improve the fatigue reliability and reduce the need for in-service inspections.     

Empirical relation between the typhoon surge deviation and the corresponding typhoon characteristics: a case study in Taiwan

The relation between typhoon surges and typhoon characteristics measured at Kenfang Tidal Station on the northeast coast of Taiwan was studied in this paper. Typhoon characteristics include the typhoon center atmospheric pressure, the typhoon near-center wind speed, the typhoon storm radius, the distance between the typhoon center and the tidal station, and the typhoon approach tracks. The results show that the typhoon surge deviation is strongly dependent on typhoon characteristics. An empirical typhoon surge formula is proposed in terms of the typhoon wind speed, the typhoon storm radius, and the distance between the typhoon center and the tidal station. The coefficients in the empirical formula were evaluated, based on the measured typhoon surge data at Kenfang Tidal Station. The storm surge deviations at Kenfang Station during Typhoons Doug (1994) and Herb (1996) estimated using the proposed empirical formula were compared with the measured data as well as with the results of a numerical study.     

用IBM磁盘阵列实现基于NT群集的电子邮件服务器

群集是使相互独立的一些系统作为一个整体工作,构成一个组.客户与群集相互作用时,群集像是一个独立的服务器,群集配置用于提高可用性和可缩放性.可用性(availability)是当群集中的一个系统发生故障时,群集软件迅速作出反映,将该系统的任务分配到群集中其它正在工作的系统上执行.群集技术使系统在故障发生时仍可以继续工作,将系统停运时间减到最小.群集也使企业内各自独立的服务器作为一个统一的系统,为未来的升级,增容提供了灵活性,(群集在计算机系统中具有重要的地位).……     

Public transport policy for central-city travel in the light of recent experiences of congestion charging

Excellent public transport which makes the private car a minority mode of central-city travel is a necessary condition for a political process towards the introduction of congestion charges. However, the charging system costs in London and Stockholm have proved to be unexpectedly high. Therefore, before these costs come down to an affordable level, zero-fares for central-city travel and stricter parking policy would be a first-best combination in many cities, always provided that the public transport is really competitive. A bold venture in public transport development is consequently the top priority irrespective of the transport pricing policy direction.     

用于碰撞测试的高速视频

目前，高速数字视频摄影术正用于汽车碰撞测试的诸多领域。采用适用于更快进程的高速视频，摄像机的最大帧率不断增长。与此同时，其硬件成本也在不断降低。     

Selfexcited Vibrations of the Tire

In this paper a mechanical work of external forces and torques, acting on the tire has been considered. A theory has been developed for the prediction of necessary conditions for selfexciting vibrations. The theory establishes, that the mechanical work of external forces and torques must be positive, or, what is equivalent, that the tire has to transmit energy from external environment to vehicle. The work of forces and torques has been considered as a convolution of functions, which next has been submitted to Laplace transformation. The condition of selfexcitation of vibrations, obtained from above in the frequency domain, establishes, that the imaginary part of all eigenvalues of frequency response matrix must be negative. As an example, the ranges of selfexcited vibrations of the tire have been calculated. The tire has been treated as a stretched circular string. Four different models have been considered. Three of them have been massles (kinematic), namely Pacejka's model, Von Schlippe's model and single-point model. As fourth model the dynamic Pacejka's model has been considered. The influences of longitudinal deflections on the shimmy tendency have been studied for all models

Frequency response characteristics have been numerically computed and compared for all models. A critical speed and a critical reduced frequency of first and second kind have been defined. Admissible, negative, imaginary parts of the eigenvalues of frequency response matrix have been established. These admissible values of imaginary parts of eigenvalues assure, that the energy absorbing does not excite shimmy vibrations.