On the use of mathematical programming in the evaluation of transport policies

This paper focuses on the evaluation processes by which decisions regarding transportation alternatives can be assisted. A multidimensional approach usually called multiple criteria decision making is required to represent the complexity of transportation policy and systems.

The multiple criteria decision making techniques can be divided into two groups. The first is based on a ranking scheme approach and the second on a mathematical programming approach.

A multiple objective mathematical programming procedure known as Goal Programming is presented. The authors examined the use of that procedure in real transportation problems.

The results suggest that multiple objective mathematical programming techniques in general do not appear to be appropriate in transportation policy analysis involving mutually exclusive alternatives. Their use can be limited to special cases in the private sector.     

A time‐staged multi‐objective network‐design model

A multi‐objective, time‐staged network‐design problem is formulated. Through transformation, the problem is decomposed into a set of single‐period, single‐objective problems. Lexicographic ordering is instrumental in effecting this transformation; it also allows a backward‐recursion algorithm to be applied using strong pruning criteria. Furthermore, monotonicity properties enable us to solve the problem using the familiar tree‐search algorithms. The solution method has several desirable properties — as shown by an example and a case study of Tripoli Province, Libya. First, the algorithm ensures continuity of project implementation over the multi time‐periods and provides optimality in later computational stages irrespective of the decision at an interim stage. Second, the algorithm tends to provide accessibility to unconnected regions in the study area at low user‐cost without employing weights to the two objective functions of accessibility and user‐cost efficiency. Such a property is deemed advantageous for suggesting transportation investments based purely on purchasing the greatest benefit for each dollar, with political neutrality strictly maintained.     

Valuation of environmental externalities: from theory to decision‐making

Valuation of externalities is a condition for correct investment and pricing decisions in transport. This paper provides a brief survey of the main studies achieved in OECD countries in order to get these valuations. Numerical values for the average social cost of transport are presented. The procedures according to which environment is taken into account in France and Italy are analyzed, and the importance of valuation in these procedures is assessed. Finally, prospects for further research and new developments are expressed.     

An algorithm for finding reasonable paths in transit networks

In this paper, reasonable paths in transit networks are defined as possible paths that satisfy the acceptable time criterion and transfer‐walk criterion. A recursive algorithm for finding all of the reasonable paths in a transit network that does not involve a rapid increase in program run‐time with network size is presented. Realistic transit networks in Hong Kong and Guangzhou were selected as case studies of the different phases of the development of a trip planning system. Transport planning practitioners and potential users were invited to test the system to evaluate its performance. The results of the prototype evaluation were satisfactory, and the viability of the system as a useful tool for supporting decision‐making has been confirmed by the positive feedback that was obtained from survey questionnaires.     

A dynamic CSTT model for the effects of added nutrients in Loch Creran, a shallow fjord

Despite a tendency for the complexity of physical–biological models to increase, simple coupled models remain useful for some applications and can provide insights into crucial links between physical and biological processes. This argument is illustrated with an account of a simple 3-box model intended to help assess the capacity of fjords to assimilate nutrients from fish farms. The model, a dynamic version of the UK “Comprehensive Studies Task Team” (CSTT) steady-state model for eutrophication, was applied to Loch Creran (Scottish Western Highlands) and was implemented using Stella 8 and tested using historical data from 1975 (before the installation of a salmon farm) and field data collected in 2003, during the period of operation of the farm. The model's biological state variables are chlorophyll, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and it includes a simple run-off model to convert rainfall into river discharge. The physical processes involved in exchange between the loch and the adjacent waters of the Firth of Lorne were parameterised as a constant daily exchange rate.Between 1975 and 2003, local inputs of nutrient increased but, despite this, there was little apparent increase in nutrient concentrations in the loch, and observed chlorophyll concentrations decreased substantially. Model simulations of chlorophyll and DIN agreed well with observations in 1975, as did DIN simulations in 2003. However, simulated chlorophyll was overestimated in 2003.Some of the agreement between observations and simulations come from the use of observed boundary conditions to force the model. However, even when boundary conditions are subtracted from simulations and observations, the simulations in most cases retain a significant correlation with observations, demonstrating that the model's ‘interior’ processes do add to its ability to replicate conditions in the loch.     

物流学的应用

Paul French上海报道，随国内日趋壮大的消费队伍电器购买需求的增长，激烈的价格战已经侵蚀了大量利润，而更加完善的物流和分销手段也许正是解决这一问题的关键所在。[编按]     

The challenge of liberalising domestic airline competition in a less developed country

A new wave of liberalisation of domestic airline competition is taking place in less developed nations, although the initial motivation in most cases is to supplement the capacity of the government's own airline. Liberalisation tends to begin with free market entry and a strong interest in privatisation while other regulatory controls are maintained. This position is untenable and policy makers in the less developed countries are having to learn quickly without the benefit of the detailed analyses that preceded liberalisation in the developed countries. This paper explores these problems and focuses on the lessons that policy makers in the less developed countries can draw from experiences elsewhere.     

Labour relations and the transfer of the Panama Canal[1]

The international maritime community is concerned about Panama's preparedness to undertake the responsibility of what many consider to be the world's greatest maritime asset, the Panama Canal. In accordance with treaty provisions, the longer within the dominion of the U.S. government and its attendant regulatory framework and policies. To a great extent, Panama's efforts to prepare for the transfer thus far have been driven by its objective of a seamless transfer, whereby the status quo (meaning the Canal's existing institutional and organizational framework and attendant policies and procedures) would be preserved as much as possible. This would assure the maritime community that it can expect the same service and cost standards traditionally enjoyed under the Panama Canal Commission's stewardship. Still of great concern, however, is the continued reliability and productivity of the Canal's labour force; the Canal's reliability and efficient performance in the past is often attributed to its history of harmonious labour management relations. This article addresses some of the critical labour relations issues that will need to be considered even if Panama's status quo objective for the transfer is achieved.     

An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance.