Analyzing the preference for non-exclusive forms of telecommuting: Modeling and policy implications

This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted ² = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted ² = 0.64). A nested logit model is also estimated on the following four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted ² = 0.35).The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interaction, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were statistically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecommute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommuting centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction.     

Low cost two dimension navigation using an augmented Kalman filter/Fast Orthogonal Search module for the integration of reduced inertial sensor system and Global Positioning System

Due to their complementary characteristics, Global Positioning System (GPS) is integrated with standalone navigation devices like odometers and inertial measurement units (IMU). Recently, intensive research has focused on utilizing Micro-Electro-Mechanical-System (MEMS) grade inertial sensors in the integration because of their low-cost. In this study, a low cost reduced inertial sensor system (RISS) is considered. It consists of a MEMS-grade gyroscope and the vehicle built-in odometer. The system works together with GPS to provide 2D navigation for land vehicles. With adequate accuracy, Kalman filter (KF) is the commonly used estimation technique to achieve the data fusion of GPS and inertial sensors in case of high-end IMUs. However, due to the inherent error characteristics of MEMS grade devices, MEMS-based RISS suffers from the non-stationary stochastic sensor errors and nonlinear inertial errors, which cannot be handled by KF and its linear error models. To overcome the problem, Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS), a nonlinear system identification technique, is suggested for modeling the higher order RISS errors. As a general-purpose numerical method, FOS algorithm has the ability to figure out the system nonlinearity efficiently with a tolerance of arbitrary stochastic system noise. Even using online short-term training data, this method is still able to build an accurate nonlinear model that predicts the system dynamics. Motivated by the above merits, an augmented KF/FOS module is proposed by cascading FOS algorithm to a traditional KF structure. By estimating and reducing both linear and nonlinear RISS errors, the proposed method is supposed to offer substantial enhancement on the positioning accuracy of MEMS-based RISS during GPS outages. In order to examine the effectiveness of the proposed technique, the KF/FOS module is applied on the low cost RISS together with GPS in a land vehicle for several road test trajectories. The performance of the proposed method is compared to KF-only solution, both assessed with respect to a reference offered by a high-end solution. The experimental results confirm that KF/FOS module outperforms KF-only method. The results also show the applicability of the proposed method for real-time vehicle applications.     

The optimal dispatching of taxis under congestion: A rolling horizon approach

Taxis make an important contribution to transport in many parts of the world, offering demand‐responsive, door‐to‐door transport. In larger cities, taxis may be hailed on‐street or taken from taxi ranks. Elsewhere, taxis are usually ordered by phone. The objective of a taxi dispatcher is to maximize the efficiency of fleet utilization. While the spatial and temporal distribution of taxi requests has in general a high degree of predictability, real time traffic congestion information can be collected and disseminated to taxis by communication technologies. The efficiency of taxi dispatching may be significantly improved through the anticipation of future requests and traffic conditions. A rolling horizon approach to the optimisation of taxi dispatching is formulated, which takes the stochastic and dynamic nature of the problem into account. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the performances of the heuristics, taking the time dependency of travel times and passenger arrivals into account.     

Distributions of travel time variability on urban roads

Reliability is an important factor in route, mode and also departure time choice analysis and is a key performance indicator for transport systems. However, the current metrics used to measure travel time variability may be not sufficient to fully represent reliability. Better understanding of the distributions of travel times is needed for the development of improved metrics for reliability. A comprehensive data analysis involving the assessment of longitudinal travel time data for two urban arterial road corridors in Adelaide, Australia, demonstrates that the observed distributions are more complex than previously assumed. The data sets demonstrate strong positive skew, very long upper tails, and sometimes bimodality. This paper proposes the use of alternative statistical distributions for travel time variability, with the Burr Type XII distribution emerging as an appropriate model for both links and routes. This statistical distribution has some attractive properties that make it suitable for explicit definition of many travel time reliability metrics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the allocation of city space to multiple transport modes

Abstract

This paper analyzes urban multimodal transportation systems in an aggregated way. To describe the aggregate behavior of traffic in cities, use is made of an idea that is now receiving some attention: the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). We demonstrate through simulation how the MFD can be used to monitor and control a real network, in this case a portion of San Francisco, using readily available input data. We then show how different modes interact on the same network and discuss how these interactions might be incorporated into an MFD for multimodal networks. The work unveils two main results: first, it confirms recent results showing that restricting access to a city's congested areas can improve mobility for all travelers, including those who endure the restrictions; and second, that dedicating street space to collective transport modes can improve accessibility for all modes, even those from which space is taken away.     

Economic impact of a supply change in mass transit in urban areas: A Canadian example

This paper aims at estimating the economic impact of a supply change in the bus transit service in a Canadian city of medium size. By using a quasi-experiment approach and a difference-in-differences (DID) estimator, it evaluates the impact of the introduction of a rapid bus transit (RBT) in Quebec City (Canada) through a spatio-temporal analysis of house price variations. The hedonic price model shows that the new service generates an increase in house price ranging from 6.9% to 2.9%, for those properties located close to the service corridor where the population is quite dense and where the service was offered initially. Using sales transaction data and municipal assessment records from 1997, the effect on price is translated into an economic impact for the whole region. The paper shows that the improvement in public transit supply generates, for Quebec City, a significant fiscal impact estimated to $6 M and a plus-value for properties owners close to $35 M over 12 years. Finally, the implications of this kind of analysis for urban planning and development are discussed.     

Distribution and diet of larval and juvenile Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) in the shallow Canadian Beaufort Sea

The distribution and diet of larval and juvenile Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) were studied during summer 2005 in the coastal Canadian Beaufort Sea. A total of 275 individuals were captured and the highest abundance was observed at station depths of 20–30 m. This corresponds well with the location of the frontal zone where the Mackenzie River plume water and open sea water meet. Diet examinations were performed on 220 Arctic cod, which were found undamaged from sampling. We observed a gradual decrease in prey number per fish and increase in prey size as larvae grew which corresponded to a shift from Rotifera and nauplii towards larger copepodid stages. However, at all sizes, the larvae remain generalists and feed on a broad range of organisms. Environmental changes due to climate warming could have a two-fold impact on fish larvae feeding in the studied region. First, the potential for increased primary production may lead to increased zooplankton production that may impact the feeding and nutrition positively. On the other hand, greater discharge of turbid water from the Mackenzie River may reduce light penetration in the water column that may negatively influence the ability of visual predators to successively forage.     

Effective arterial road incident detection: A Bayesian network based algorithm

Timely and accurate incident detection is an essential part of any successful advanced traffic management system. The complex nature of arterial road traffic makes automated incident detection a real challenge. Stable performance and strong transferability remain major issues concerning the existing incident detection algorithms. A new arterial road incident detection algorithm TSC_ar is presented in this paper. In this algorithm, Bayesian networks are used to quantitatively model the causal dependencies between traffic events (e.g. incident) and traffic parameters. Using real time traffic data as evidence, the Bayesian networks update the incident probability at each detection interval through two-way inference. An incident alarm is issued when the estimated incident probability exceeds the predefined decision threshold. The Bayesian networks allow us to subjectively build existing traffic knowledge into their conditional probability tables, which makes the knowledge base for incident detection robust and dynamic. Meanwhile, we incorporate intersection traffic signals into traffic data processing. A total of 40 different types of arterial road incidents are simulated to test the performance of the algorithm. The high detection rate of 88% is obtained while the false alarm rate of the algorithm is maintained as low as 0.62%. Most importantly, it is found that both the detection rate and false alarm rate are not sensitive to the incident decision thresholds. This is the unique feature of the TSC_ar algorithm, which suggests that the Bayesian network approach is advanced in enabling effective arterial road incident detection.     

The future for in‐vehicle information systems: The technology and its impacts

In‐vehicle information has an important social role to play in improving the efficiency and safety of travel by all modes. In this review, three generations of system are identified. The first generation consists of simple in‐vehicle units relying heavily on external data. The second generation has more sophisticated in‐vehicle units with colour TFT screens and DVD players for maps and entertainment. The third generation again makes use of external data, using the mobile phone network to download map sections and other data as and when required, thereby obviating the need for beacons and map CDs. For locationing, GPS (and/or Galileo, the European version of GPS) remains the favoured technology. Portable devices offering multi‐modal information could improve inter‐modal transport efficiency.