Shifting towards environment-friendly modes: profiling travelers using Q-methodology

Due to a variety of reasons, the previous century is characterized by an extraordinary growth in car use that has continued into the current century. This has resulted in serious environmental repercussions. Despite technological advancements, the externalities remain an ecological threat that can not be discarded by policy makers. Therefore, it is essential that policy makers focus on reducing car use and on stimulating the shift towards more environment-friendly transport modes. In this study, Q-methodology is adopted as the technique to segment people, and to ascertain which approaches and determinants matter to medium distance travel. Segmentation is important, as policy measures will be more efficient and effective if they are fine-tuned on specific target groups. The analysis revealed that four discourses preponderate the paradigm of environmentally sustainable transport: travelers who use public transport as a dominant alternative, car-dependent travelers, travelers with a positive perception of using public transport, and travelers with a preference for car use. Concerning rational, economic motives, individuals evaluate travel time reliability as most important. To increase the reliability policy makers should consider the use of separate bus lanes and traffic light manipulation. In addition, public transport can be made even more attractive, when costs of cars are made more variable by road or congestion charging. When the s motives are discussed, the differences between the different groups of travelers were more pronounced. Next to increasing the benefits of using public transport, policy makers should also pay attention to removing psycho-social barriers.

Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures from traffic expectations can be accommodated.

Studying travel-related individual assessments and desires by combining hierarchically structured ordinal variables

Ordinal measures are frequently encountered in travel behavior research. This paper presents a new method for combining them when a hierarchical structure of the data can be presumed. This method is applied to study the subjective assessment of the amount of travel by different transportation modes among a group of French clerical workers, along with the desire to increase or decrease the use of such modes. Some advantages of this approach over traditional data reduction technique such as factor analysis when applied to ordinal data are then illustrated. In this study, combining evidence from several variables sheds light on the observed moderately negative relationship between the personal assessment of the amount of travel and the desire to increase or decrease it, thus integrating previous partial (univariate) results. We find a latent demand for travel, thus contributing to clarify the behavioral mechanisms behind the induced traffic phenomenon. Categorizing the above relationship by transportation mode shows a desire for a less environmental-friendly mix of modes (i.e., a greater desire to use heavy motorized modes and a lower desire to use two-wheeled modes), whenever the respondents do not feel to travel extensively. This result, combined with previous theoretical investigations concerning the determinants of the desire to alter trips consumption levels, shows the importance of making people aware of how much they travel.

“I can do perfectly well without a car!”

This article presents the results of a study exploring travellers’ preferences for middle-distance travel using Q-methodology. Respondents rank-ordered 42 opinion statements regarding travel choice and motivations for travel in general and for car and public transport as alternative travel modes. By-person factor analysis revealed four distinct preference segments for middle-distance travel: (1) choice travellers with a preference for public transport, (2) deliberate-choice travellers, (3) choice travellers with car as dominant alternative, and (4) car-dependent travellers. These preference segments differ in terms of the levels of involvement and cognitive effort in travel decision making, the travel consideration-set and underlying motivations. The study showed that for most people there is more to travel than getting from point A to point B, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in middle-distance travel preferences. Policy implications for reducing the need for travel and promoting a modal shift from car to other travel modes are discussed.     

Shift of reference point and implications on behavioral reaction to gains and losses

It is widely recognized that individual decision-making is subject to the evaluation of gains and losses around a reference point. The estimation of discrete choice models increasingly use data from stated choice experiments which are pivoted around a reference alternative. However, to date, the specification of a reference alternative in transport studies has been fixed, whereas it is common to observe individuals adjusting their preferences according to a change in their reference point. This paper focuses on individual reactions, in a freight choice context, to a negative change in the reference alternative values, identifying the behavioural implications in terms of loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity. The results show a significant adjustment in the valuation of gains and losses around a shifted reference alternative. In particular, we find an average increase in loss aversion for cost and time attributes, and a substantial decrease for punctuality. These findings are translated to significant differences in the willingness to pay and willingness to accept measures, providing supporting evidence of respondents’ behavioural reaction.     

Sealed v/s open bids for certificates of entitlement under the vehicle quota system in Singapore

The Vehicle Quota System manages vehicle ownership in Singapore by making the procurement of a Certificate of Entitlement (COE) a prerequisite for the registration of a new vehicle. The procurement is done during uniform price auctions of quotas of COEs currently held on a twice-a-month schedule. The auction format which started out as sealed bids in May 1990 changed to open bids in July 2001. This paper uses a regression model framework to investigate if this shift in auction format has resulted in lower COE premium volatility and a better reflection of demand and supply forces. The empirical results are pertinent to transport policy analysis. A suggestion in the form of incentives for early bids is also made to improve the efficiency of the open bids auction.     

Moving between mobility cultures: what affects the travel behavior of new residents?

This paper analyzes the complex interdependencies between residential relocation and daily travel behavior by focusing on modal change. To help explain changes in daily travel patterns after a long distance move between cities the concept of urban mobility cultures is introduced. This comprehensive approach integrates objective and subjective elements of urban mobility, such as urban form and socio-economics on the one hand, and lifestyle orientations and mode preferences on the other, within one socio-technical framework. Empirically, the study is based on a survey conducted among people who recently moved between the German cities Bremen, Hamburg and the Ruhr area. Bivariate analyses and linear multiple regression models are applied to analyze changes in car, rail-based and bicycle travel. This is done by integrating variables that account for urban mobility cultures and controlling for urban form, residential preferences and socio-demographics. A central finding of this study is, that changes in the use of the car and rail-based travel are much more dependent on local scale, such as neighborhood type and residential preferences, whereas cycling is more affected by city-wide attributes, which we addressed as mobility culture elements.     

The effects of free surface and end cell on flow around a finite circular cylinder with low aspect ratio

Vortex-induced motion is an oscillatory phenomenon which occurs to a floating body with low aspect ratio. The basic phenomenological study about the effects of free surface and end cell on flow around a finite fixed circular cylinder was investigated in this study using particle image velocimetry and hydrodynamic force measurement. It was found from the former experiment that the wake of the cylinder is influenced by the both end cell and free surface. Blowup and back flow are generated from the end cell, and their effects are suspended by free surface. The result of hydrodynamic force measurement showed the effect of Reynolds number, Froude number, and the aspect ratio of the floating body on the hydrodynamic force. Fluctuating components of hydrodynamic coefficients decrease for increasing Reynolds number, Froude number, and the aspect ratio. On the other hand, the mean drag coefficient increases as Froude number increases and decreases as the aspect ratio increases. The interpretation to these results was discussed in comparison with flow structures observed in the experiment. In addition, it was found that the effect of Reynolds number on the mean drag coefficient changes at different aspect ratios. A possible interpretation to this phenomenon was proposed.     

Theoretical,experimental and numerical investigations into nonlinear motion of a tethered-buoy system

In this paper, we discuss nonlinear motion of a buoy connected vertically to the seabed via a tensioned tether (tethered-buoy). A series of scaled model tests has been conducted and a significant nonlinear behavior of the buoy motion, sub-harmonic motion in particular, is observed. Taking account of the influence of time-varying tether tension on the buoy motion, theoretical explanation is made for the sub-harmonic response. The stability of the tethered-buoy system is focused based on Mathieu instability theory. A strongly coupled numerical model between the buoy motion and the tether behavior is established to clarify the mechanism of the nonlinear motion of the tethered-buoy system. A comparison between the experiment data and simulation results is presented not only for the linear but also for the sub-harmonic components. Influential factors for the sub-harmonic motion are discussed in detail. It turned out that the sub-harmonic motion is dominated by the nonlinear coupling effect of time-varying tension in the tether with the buoy motion. Finally, the influential factors to the sub-harmonic motion are indicated throughout the comparison between two different buoy models.