Air transport and economic growth: a review of the impact mechanism and causal relationships

ABSTRACT

The impacts of air transport on the economy arise both directly, via activity in the aviation sector; and indirectly, via increased spending and wider economic benefits associated with improved access to resources, markets, technology and economic mass. Economic activity, in turn, supports and generates demand for air transport. Despite its potential importance, the reciprocal nature of the causal relationship between air transport and economic performance has remained somewhat understudied. This paper provides a synthesis review of the channels the aviation sector interacts with regional economy. The review focuses on quantitative studies that contribute to the state-of-the-art understandings of the causality. We find that the reciprocal causal relationship is more likely to prevail in less developed economies. For more developed economies, only one direction of the causality is recognised, which runs from air transport to economic growth. Especially substantial is the effect of airline enplanement on service-related employment. The reverse direction of the relationship is, however, not as significant as believed in a causal sense within the developed world. Therefore, cautions need to be taken when applying income elasticities (such as the elasticity of air passenger demand with respect to GDP) in air travel demand forecasting, which implicitly assumes that economic growth causally leads to air traffic increment. Based on the fundamental links between air transport and economic growth, some typical imperfections and inefficiencies in aviation markets are discussed and promising avenues for future research are proposed.     

Examining the influence of multidestination service orientation on transit service productivity: a multivariate analysis

Between 1990 and 2000, U.S. transit agencies added service and increased ridership, but the ridership increase failed to keep pace with the service increase. The result was a decline in service effectiveness (or productivity). This marks the continuation of a long-running and often-studied trend. The scholarly literature attributes this phenomenon, at least in part, to transit agency decisions to decentralize their service rather than focus on serving the traditional CBD market. Many scholars argue that a decentralized service orientation is both ineffective and inefficient because it attracts few riders and requires large per-rider subsidies. This research tests whether a non-traditional, decentralized service orientation, called multidestination service, results in reduced service productivity. Contrary to what the literature suggests, we find that MSAs whose transit agencies pursued a multidestination service orientation did not experience lower productivity. These results indicate that policies that have encouraged the growth of decentralized transit services have not necessarily been detrimental to the industry.

Railway wheel-flat detection and measurement by ultrasound

This work presents an innovative ultrasound technique designed to detect and quantify flats formed in the rolling surface of railway wheels. Differently from other approaches, ultrasonic pulses (Rayleigh waves) are sent over a measuring rail. The variations in the round-trip time of flight (RTOF) of the ultrasound pulse to the rail-wheel contact point allow detecting and quantifying the wheel-flats. In spite of the wear state of the irregularity, the method provides the loss of material and the length of the flat originally formed by abrasion. A theoretical background supports the technique which offers many advantages for railway maintenance. Simulations and experimental results match the expected ones.     

Simulating the impacts of household travel on greenhouse gas emissions,urban air quality,and population exposure

This paper establishes a link between an activity-based model for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), dynamic traffic assignment, emission modelling, and air quality simulation. This provides agent-based output that allows vehicle emissions to be tracked back to individuals and households who are producing them. In addition, roadway emissions are dispersed and the resulting ambient air concentrations are linked with individual time-activity patterns in order to assess population exposure to air pollution. This framework is applied to evaluate the effects of a range of policy interventions and 2031 scenarios on the generation of vehicle emissions and greenhouse gases in the GTA. Results show that the predicted increase of approximately 2.6 million people and 1.3 million jobs in the region by 2031 compared to 2001 levels poses a major challenge in achieving meaningful reductions in GHGs and air pollution.     

Increasing the capacity of signalized intersections with separate left turn phases

A separate turn phase is often used on the approach leg to an intersections with heavy left turns. This wastes capacity on the approach because some of its lanes cannot discharge during its green phases. The paper shows that the problem can be eliminated by reorganizing traffic on all the lanes upstream of an intersection using a mid-block pre-signal. If drivers behave deterministically, the capacity that can be achieved is the same as if there were no left turns. However, if the reorganization is too drastic, it may be counterintuitive to drivers. This can be remedied by reorganizing traffic on just some of the available lanes. It is shown that such partial reorganization still increases capacity significantly, even if drivers behave randomly and only one lane is reorganized. The paper shows how to optimize the design of a pre-signal system for a generic intersection. It also identifies both, the potential benefits of the proposed system for a broad class of intersections, and the domain of application where the benefits are most significant.     

The accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice setting: A re-examination and some controversial conclusions

Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats.     

A proposal for cost-related and market-oriented train running charges

This paper examines some key aspects of a charging system for promoting railway transport, including charges reflecting a clear relationship with costs (transparency) and charges reflecting the quality of the infrastructure manager's service. Train running charges recover track-related costs and can help to develop a charging system that meets these requirements. To orient train running charges to the market, a method for processing track maintenance and renewal costs is proposed whereby the quality of the service provided by an infrastructure is measured according to its utility to the railway undertaking. To achieve transparency, a single indicator is used for cost planning and the subsequent levying of costs on railway undertakings. The paper includes an example of how proposed train running charges would be calculated according to data from 14 European countries. The example shows that short-distance trains generate the lowest maintenance and renewal costs, followed by long-distance trains and freight trains.     

Trip generation and distribution: the inconsistency problem and a possible remedy

There are many shortcomings commonly associated with the conventional urban transportation modeling process. This paper focuses on one of the more important problems — the inconsistency between trip generation and distribution components — and suggests a possible way of alleviating it. The suggested approach involves sorting out the independent effects on tripmaking of origin, destination and travel cost characteristics, and introducing accessibility measures explicitly into the modeling process. The resulting modeling framework can be used to obtain consistent estimates of trip generation and distribution quantities which are responsive to changes in the transportation and spatial systems.     

The identification and empirical characterization of vehicular (Lagrangian) fundamental diagrams in multilane traffic flow

Traditional macroscopic traffic flow modeling framework adopts the spatial–temporal coordinate system to analyze traffic flow dynamics. With such modeling and analysis paradigm, complications arise for traffic flow data collected from mobile sensors such as probe vehicles equipped with mobile phones, Bluetooth, and Global Positioning System devices. The vehicle‐based measurement technologies call for new modeling thoughts that address the unique features of moving measurements and explore their full potential. In this paper, we look into the concept of vehicular fundamental diagram (VFD) and discuss its engineering implications. VFD corresponds to a conventional fundamental diagram (FD) in the kinematic wave (KW) theory that adopts space–time coordinates. Similar to the regular FD in the KW theory, VFD encapsulates all traffic flow dynamics. In this paper, to demonstrate the full potential of VFD in interpreting multilane traffic flow dynamics, we generalize the classical Edie's formula and propose a direct approach of reconstructing VFD from traffic measurements in the vehicular coordinates. A smoothing algorithm is proposed to effectively reduce the nonphysical fluctuation of traffic states calculated from multilane vehicle trajectories. As an example, we apply the proposed methodology to explore the next‐generation simulation datasets and identify the existence and forms of shock waves in different coordinate systems. Our findings provide empirical justifications and further insight for the Lagrangian traffic flow theory and models when applied in practice. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.