运用模糊综合评判法评价铁路工程承包风险

研究目的铁路施工企业工程承包中潜藏着众多不确定风险,这些风险涉及面广、影响因素多、损失危害程度高,在投标时采用有效的方法对工程承包风险进行准确分析,可以提高投标决策效率,进而提高工程效益。研究方法在充分研究铁路工程承包风险因素的基础上,介绍了层次分析法和模糊综合评价法用于铁路工程承包风险分析评价的步骤方法,为铁路工程承包风险分析和评价提供了定性与定量相结合的综合评价方法。研究结果通过中铁十六局投标兰武二线乌鞘岭隧道实例演示了操作过程,证明了该方法的科学性和可行性。研究结论在铁路工程承包中,风险是客观存在的,且具有较大的不确定性和模糊性。用模糊数学工具将许多观念性的难以精确度量的风险因素量化,既克服了传统优化法仅限于解决定量问题的缺点,又弥补了采用经验估计的方法较难解决复杂问题,且容易产生偏差又不易得出确切结果的不足,大大提高了决策效率和准确性。因此将模糊综合评判法应用到铁路工程承包风险评价是科学合理的。该方法在实际应用中所面临的主要困难是对专家意见的采集和处理。     

Use of the analytic hierarchy process to evaluate transit fare system

The transportation fare system influences the mobility of a region and the life quality of its inhabitants. This study aims to evaluate a region's optimal fare system by using the analytic hierarchy process, based on a survey among transportation experts, divided into three categories: operators, professors/consultants and government officials. The results are presented divided by category and overall, and the performance of the most important relative criteria to establish a fare system is determined. The most important criterion according to all the selected experts was the fare price, with 21.5%. The fare system determined as the best was distance/zone (31.1%) and the worst was a flat fare system (7.2%). In addition, we show the influence of the fare price criterion in each fare system through sensitivity charts and highlight its importance for all three groups of experts to evaluate the fare system.     

Urban cycling mobility: management and urban institutional arrangements to support bicycle tourism activities—case study from Curitiba,Brazil

Transportation - Simultaneously addressing micro-mobility and urban tourism has been a challenge for urban managers formulating cycle-inclusive urban policies in different countries. In this...     

抑郁症患者血清甲状腺激素水平变异分析

目的　了解血清甲状腺激素水平与抑郁症的关系。方法　对 6 4例门诊及住院抑郁症患者中双相抑郁障碍 34例、单相抑郁障碍 30例治疗前后血清三碘甲状腺原氨酸 (T3 )、甲状腺素 (T4)和促甲状腺激素 (TSH)进行检测 ,同时以30名健康志愿者作为对照组。治疗前后应用汉密尔顿抑郁量表 (HAMD)和Montgomery Asbery抑郁量表 (MADRS) ,评定抑郁症状的严重程度。结果　患者组治疗前后T3 [(1.98± 0 .5 2 )nmol·L-1,(1.90± 0 .5 8)nmol·L-1]均明显高于对照组 [(1.5 8± 0 .2 7)nmol·L-1],单相抑郁障碍患者治疗后T4[(93.4 1± 2 9.4 1)nmol·L-1]低于治疗前 [(10 4± 2 0 .2 4 )nmol·L-1],并恢复到正常范围 ,HAMD和MADRS评分也随之明显下降。结论　提示抑郁症患者甲状腺激素水平改变与症状的消失有关 ,甲状腺激素异常是继发于情绪障碍 ,双相抑郁障碍与单相抑郁障碍在病因学方面可能不同。     

高架轨道轮轨噪声预测分析

随着我国城市轨道交通的快速发展,高架轨道作为一种经济、实用、安全、快速的交通模式,在城市轨道交通建设中得到越来越广泛的运用,但由此带来的振动噪声对周围环境的影响也变得十分突出。通过建立轮轨噪声预测模型,运用有限元法分析箱型梁、U型梁阻抗,对高架轨道轮轨噪声进行预测分析。讨论了桥梁截面型式、行车速度、轨道扣件刚度、桥梁结构阻尼、桥梁支座刚度对高架轨道轮轨噪声的影响。分析结果表明,行车速度和扣件刚度对轮轨噪声有较大影响,在200 Hz以下,轮轨噪声总体上随着扣件刚度的增大而增大;在200~800 Hz范围内,轮轨噪声随着扣件刚度的增大反而减小;在800 Hz以上,扣件刚度对轮轨噪声无明显影响。桥梁截面型式仅在低频部分对轮轨噪声有较大影响,而桥梁结构阻尼、桥梁支座刚度则对高架轨道轮轨噪声影响甚微。     

A combined destination and route choice model for a bicycle sharing system

This paper studies the supply variables that influence the destination and route choices of users of a bicycle sharing system in the Chilean city of Santiago. A combined trip demand logit model is developed whose explanatory variables represent attributes relating to the topology of the possible routes and other characteristics such as the presence of bikeways, bus service and controlled intersections. The data for the explanatory variables and system users were collected through field surveys of the routes and interviews conducted at the system stations. The results of the model show that proximity to stops on the Santiago Metro and the existence of bikeways are the main factors influencing destination and route choices. Also indicated by the model estimates are gender differences, a preference for tree-lined routes and an avoidance of routes with bus services. Finally, the outcomes reveal considerable potential for the integration of bicycle sharing systems with Metro transit.     

On the development of public transit in large cities

This article presents a summary of the analyses and set of recommendations given by a committee of transit specialists gathered by the Minister of Transport of Chile aiming at improving Transantiago, the new transit system recently inaugurated for Santiago. This summary focuses on those recommendations directed towards improving the efficiency, service quality and sustainability of mass public transportation systems in major cities in the developing world and that could be implemented in a short term (within two years). Three broad dimensions of public transit are considered: competition and regulation; investment, financing, fares and subsidies; and the operation and use of infrastructure, design, inspection and control. Although the study grew out of the needs and characteristics of a city such as Santiago (Chile), and of the virtues and deficiencies of Transantiago, much of the analyses and recommendations could be adopted and implemented in the major cities of developed countries in Europe, North America and Asia.     

Workshop report - Beyond competitive tendering

Most countries contemplating the introduction of competition-based organizational forms did not perceive the British deregulated bus regime to be the way forward. A deeper analysis of facts and an international coverage of the local successes of that regime remained marginal and, as a result, the reputation of deregulated regimes remained bad or - at best - a contentious issue. The rush for competitive tendering was further stimulated by the European Commission’s endeavour to enact a Regulation that put forward competitive tendering of exclusive contracts as the preferred way to organise local public transport markets. Yet, as discussed in this workshop, deregulation in various guises may well play a growing role in local and regional transport. This is already visible in long-distance coach transport and in (international) European railway markets as from 2010. The workshop paper discusses whether such competition-based institutional alternatives to competitive tendering can provide efficiency and service improvements, how such competition-based alternatives should be ‘regulated’ and, alternatively, how a non-competitive direct award could perhaps still guarantee good performance.