Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year

Using multi-day, multi-period travel diaries data of 56 days (four waves of two-week diaries) for 67 individuals in Stockholm, this study aims to examine the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints (e.g. teleworking, studying at home, doing the laundry, cleaning and taking care of other household member[s]) on individuals’ day-to-day leisure activity participation decisions in four different seasons. This study also aims to explore the effects of various types of working schedules (fixed, shift, partial- and full-flexible) on individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day leisure activities. A pooled model (56 days) and wave-specific models (14 days in each wave) are estimated by using dynamic ordered Probit models. The effects of various types of working schedules are estimated by using 28 days of two waves’ data. The results show that an individual’s leisure activity participation decision is significantly influenced by out-of-home work durations but not influenced by in-home constraints, regardless of any seasons. Individuals with shift working hours engage less in day-to-day leisure activities than other workers’ types in both spring and summer seasons. The thermal indicator significantly affects individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions during the autumn season. Individuals exhibit routine behaviour characterized by repeated decisions in participating in day-to-day leisure activities that can last up to 14 days, regardless of any seasons.     

Reconsidering the multinomial probit model

Recently developed computational methods have greatly reduced the difficulty of estimating multinomial probit models and may soon make multinomial probit a computationally feasible option in applied travel demand modeling. This paper discusses some of the benefits and costs that are associated with the use of multinomial probit in demand modeling. It is argued that although there are situations in which multinomial probit is essential for achieving a satisfactory model, most problems with existing demand models are unlikely to be mitigated by the use of multinomial probit.     

进贡

2008年一场金融海啸,让世界顶级腕表市场上的金钱游戏重新洗牌,欧美购买力的一蹶不振,相对地中国强大购买力的兴起,连向来一身傲骨的瑞士表匠们也把天平向东方巨龙这边倾斜,制造出一枚又一枚专为中国市场口味而设的表款。在现今腕表世界内"中国力场"的影响力有多大?先问问腕表专家们,     

天使在细节

如果把腕表的机芯比喻为一部汽车的引擎,应该没有多少人会提出异议,因为两者皆是机械运作的心脏部分,都是机器一呼一吸的灵魂中枢。但若然我说有车迷每当遇上超级跑车时,其鉴赏角度都是二话不说便揭开引擎盖、细看里面的发动机结构,你会觉得他有怪癖吧?按照这样看,真正爱表的表痴都是有怪癖的一群。     

熊猫天行者

当你第一眼看到它时,必定会问:这是哪门子的手表?表不像表,时间的指示器变成双喷射引擎飞船,还赫然发现我们的国宝大熊猫骑坐在上面英姿焕发地翱翔。这是一枚玩具手表吗?在某种意义上,是的,它是独立制表界怪杰Maximilian B(u|¨)sser以童     

The accuracy of the multinomial logit model as an approximation to the multinomial probit model of travel demand

The multinomial probit model of travel demand is considerably more general but much less tractable than the better-known multinomial logit model. In an effort to determine the effects of using the relatively simple logit model in situations where the assumptions of probit modeling are satisfied but those of logit modeling are not, the accuracy of the multinomial logit model as an approximation to a variety of three-alternative probit models has been evaluated. Multinomial logit can give highly erroneous estimates of the choice probabilities of multinomial probit models. However, logit models appear to give asymptotically accurate estimates of the ratios of the coefficients of the systematic components of probit utility functions, even when the logit choice probabilities differ greatly from the probit ones. Large estimation data sets are not necessarily needed to enable likelihood ratio tests to distinguish three-alternative probit models from logit models that give seriously erroneous estimates of the probit choice probabilities. Inclusion of alternative-specific dummy variables in logit utility functions cannot be relied upon to reduce significantly the errors of logit approximations to the choice probabilities of probit models whose utility functions do not contain the dummies.     

Identification and diagnosis of specification errors in the multinomial logit model

Multinomial logit models of travel demand are subject to a variety of specification errors that can severely affect the accuracy the models' forecasts. This paper describes some of the important sources of specification errors in logit models, presents numerical illustrations of the errors' effects on forecasts of travel behavior, and evaluates the ability of several informal and formal statistical procedures to identify and diagnose the errors. Among the tests considered, the most powerful are a test against a probit model and the McFadden, Tye and Train (1976) test based on the universal logit method. The least powerful tests are a test based on extrapolating the logit model and informal tests based on examination of the signs, t-statistics and ratios of the estimated parameters of the logit function.     

数字狂徒

从21世纪开始,我们就半自愿半被迫地被推进数位的世界,一切原本连绵温暖的东西忽然间被分断成疏离的存在,菲林、黑胶唱片、信件等都被电脑里一连串的零一零一零一数字取代。芸芸众生之中,唯一不被数码攻陷的,便是高级腕表的世界。在这里,如果你戴着一枚数码跳字腕表,是会惹来鄙夷目光的。     

From suspended particles to strata: The fate of terrestrial substances in the Gaoping (Kaoping) submarine canyon

The river–sea system consisting of the Gaoping (new spelling according to the latest government's directive, formerly spelled Kaoping) River (KPR), shelf, and Submarine Canyon (KPRSC) located off southern Taiwan is an ideal natural laboratory to study the source, pathway, transport, and fate of terrestrial substances. In 2004 during the flood season of the KPR, a system-wide comprehensive field experiment was conducted to investigate particle dynamics from a source-to-sink perspective in the KPRSC with the emphasis on the effect of particle size on the transport, settling, and sedimentation along the pathway. This paper reports the findings from (1) two sediment trap moorings each configured with a Technicap PPS 3/3 sediment trap, and an acoustic current meter (Aquadopp); (2) concurrent hydrographic profiling and water sampling was conducted over 8 h next to the sediment trap moorings; and (3) box-coring in the head region of the submarine canyon near the mooring sites. Particle samples from sediment traps were analyzed for mass fluxes, grain-size composition, total organic carbon (TOC) and nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), carbonate, biogenic opal, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), lithogenic silica and aluminum, and foraminiferal abundance. Samples from box cores were analyzed for grain-size distribution, TOC, particulate organic matter (POM), carbonate, biogenic opal, water content, and ²¹⁰Pb_ex. Water samples were filtered through 500, 250, 63, 10 µm sieves and 0.4 µm filter for the suspended sediment concentration of different size-classes.Results show that the river and shelf do not supply all the suspended particles near the canyon floor. The estimated mass flux near the canyon floor exceeds 800 g/m²/day, whose values are 2–7 times higher than those at the upper rim of the canyon. Most of the suspended particles in the canyon are fine-grained (finer than medium silt) lithogenic sediments whose percentages are 90.2% at the upper rim and 93.6% in the deeper part of the canyon.As suspended particles settle through the canyon, their size-composition shows a downward fining trend. The average percentage of clay-to-fine-silt particles (0.4–10 µm) in the water samples increases from 22.7% above the upper rim of the canyon to 56.0% near the bottom of the canyon. Conversely, the average percentage of the sand-sized (> 63 µm) suspended particles decreases downward from 32.0% above the canyon to 12.0% in the deeper part of the canyon. Correspondingly, the substrate of the canyon is composed largely of hemipelagic lithogenic mud. Parallel to this downward fining trend is the downward decrease of concentrations of suspended nonlithogenic substances such as TOC and PAH, despite of their affinity to fine-grained particles.On the surface of the canyon, down-core variables (grain size, ²¹⁰Pb_ex activity, TOC, water content) near the head region of the canyon show post-depositional disturbances such as hyperpycnite and turbiditic deposits. These deposits point to the occurrences of erosion and deposition related to high-density flows such as turbidity currents, which might be an important process in submarine canyon sedimentation.