Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

Man and his transport behaviour Part 4. Fare strategies for public transport—a problem outline

Abstract

In April 1983, the “Fourth World Conference on Transport Research” was held in Hamburg. For a period of four days, experts from all parts of the world discussed transport research and planning problems. The discussions were divided into eight so‐called ‘sub‐topics’. Fortunately, one of the sub‐topics, ‘Man and his Transport Behaviour’ (chaired by Moshe Ben‐Akiva, U.S.A. and Werner Brög, Federal Republic of Germany) dealt with the individual and his behaviour. This complemented the traditionally supply‐oriented thinking of the transport planners by introducing the demand component which had frequently been neglected in the past. Since the view has become increasingly widespread that transport is meant to serve people, and thus, that research should emphasize the (potential) users of the transport system, the number of papers submitted and presented on this sub‐topic was especially large.

However, the number of papers which could be included in the ‘Conference Proceedings’ was limited and this would have meant that a number of interesting documents could not be published. Therefore, papers on four special areas within this sub‐topic are to be published in four consecutive issues of Transport Reviews. The areas which will be dealt with are ‘Telecommunications’, ‘Non‐Motorised Transport’, ‘Special Problems in Third World Countries’ and ‘Fare Structures in Public Transport’. The papers were selected strictly according to their contents. A brief commentary in each issue explains in turn the reasons for choosing each of the four subject areas.

Parts 1–3 appeared in Transport Reviews, 4, 99–113, 173–212, 273–298.     

On model-based longitudinal feed-forward motion control for low velocities on known road profiles

ABSTRACT

So far, longitudinal motion control has focused on situations like highway driving, where disturbances of the road profile can be neglected. In this paper, we show how the Two Point Tire Model can be used to derive a novel feed-forward control law for a vehicle's longitudinal motion that considers the effects of the road profile and can complement existing control approaches. For this purpose, we recapitulate the basic model assumptions and equations and briefly discuss how it can be used on arbitrary road profiles. Two approaches for implementation in a real vehicle are presented. Comparisons of these approaches in simulation and to a human driver of an experimental vehicle show that the controller can deal with stepped obstacles of up to 14?cm in height. However, the control performance is essentially limited by the actuator delay and human drivers outperform the controller due to their ability of sensing subtle vehicle motions. The results indicate that the control performance can be further improved by using a preview on the necessary drive torque, which can be provided by the solution that we propose.     

Establishing car sharing services in rural areas: a simulation-based fleet operations analysis

Today, car sharing represents a generally accepted and widespread mode of individual transport. Car sharing providers operate their fleets effectively in many cities around the world. Surprisingly, rural areas don’t seem to have been considered in provider’s current expansion strategies. However, studies suggest that car sharing would have the greatest impact on improving sustainability and reducing traffic if it were offered nationwide. In this paper, we analyze the factors that prevent car sharing enterprises from developing their services in rural regions. Supported by a simulation model, we elaborate strategic implications on how to deal with potential hindrances such as lower demand or longer driving distances. For this purpose, a symbiosis of urban and rural car sharing services was analyzed. Our findings indicate a certain feasibility of rural car sharing development, while highlighting the positive effect it could have on car sharing demand in urban areas.

     

Mobile phone data in transportation research: methods for benchmarking against other data sources

The ubiquity of personal cellular phones in society has led to a surging interest in using Big Data generated by mobile phones in transport research. Studies have suggested that the vast amount of data could be used to estimate origin–destination (OD) matrices, thereby potentially replacing traditional data sources such as travel surveys. However, constructing OD matrices from mobile phone data (MPD) entails multiple challenges, and the lack of ground truth hampers the evaluation and validation of the estimated matrices. Furthermore, national laws may prohibit the distribution of MPD for research purposes, compelling researchers to work with pre-compiled OD matrices with no insight into the methods used. In this paper, we analyse a set of such pre-compiled OD matrices from the greater Oslo area and perform validation procedures against several sources to assess the quality and robustness of the OD matrices as well as their usefulness in transportation planning applications. We find that while the OD matrices correlate well with other sources at a low resolution, the reliability decreases when a finer level of detail is chosen, particularly when comparing shorter trips between neighbouring areas. Our results suggest that coarseness of data and privacy concerns restrict the usefulness of MPD in transport research in the case where OD matrices are pre-compiled by the operator.

     

Noise,vibration, harshness model of a rotating tyre

ABSTRACT

The tyre plays a fundamental role in the generation of acoustically perceptible driving noise and vibrations inside the vehicle. An essential part of these vibrations is induced by the road excitation and transferred via the tyre into the vehicle. There are two basic ways to study noise, vibration, harshness (NVH) behaviour: Simulations in time and frequency domains. Modelling the tyre transfer behaviour in frequency domain requires special attention to the rotation of the tyre. This paper shows the approach taken by the authors to include the transfer behaviour in the frequency range up to 250?Hz from geometric road excitations to resulting spindle forces in frequency domain. This paper validates the derived NVH tyre model by comparison with appropriate transient simulations of the base transient model.     

CaPaSIM statement of methods

In the present paper, the method for calculation of the dynamic pantograph–catenary interaction developed by the Royal Institute of Technology and the Swedish National Rail/Road administration (Trafikverket) is described and the results of the benchmark exercise are discussed. The method is based on the commercial Finite Element software ANSYS. The geometry of the catenary and pantograph is defined in a pre-processor, BARTRAD, developed by Trafikverket, and is automatically translated into an ANSYS model. Basically all types of catenary systems could be handled as well as different types of non-linearity. There are both 2D and 3D versions of the code existing. The results achieved in this first stage of the benchmark are well in line with the results from the other partners in the benchmark study     

Income-contingent user preferences in policy evaluation: application and discussion based on multi-agent transport simulations

Standard economic policy evaluation allows the realization of projects if the aggregated economic benefit outweighs their costs. The use of one single aggregated welfare measure for evaluating and ranking projects has often been criticized for many reasons. A major issue is that differentiated effects on individuals or subgroups of the population are not taken into consideration. This leads to the need for transport planning tools that provide additional information for politicians and decision makers. The microscopic multi-agent simulation approach presented in this paper is capable of helping to design better solutions in such situations. In particular, it is shown that the inclusion of individual income in utility calculations allows a better understanding of problems linked to public acceptance. First, individual income-contingent utility functions are estimated based on survey data in order to describe human mobility behavior. Subsequently, using the MATSim framework, the implementation is tested in a test scenario. Furthermore, and going beyond Franklin (2006), it is shown that the approach works in a large-scale real world example. Based on a hypothetical speed increase of public transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. It is shown that the identification of winners and losers seems to be quite robust. However, results indicate that a conversion or aggregation of individual utility changes for welfare analysis is highly dependent on the functional form of the utility functions as well as on the choice of the aggregation procedure.     

Propeller torque load and propeller shaft torque response correlation during ice-propeller interaction

Ships use propulsion machinery systems to create directional thrust. Sailing in ice-covered waters involves the breaking of ice pieces and their submergence as the ship hull advances. Sometimes, submerged ice pieces interact with the propeller and cause irregular fluctuations of the torque load. As a result, the propeller and engine dynamics become imbalanced, and energy propagates through the propulsion machinery system until equilibrium is reached. In such imbalanced situations, the measured propeller shaft torque response is not equal to the propeller torque. Therefore, in this work, the overall system response is simulated under the ice-related torque load using the Bond graph model. The energy difference between the propeller and propeller shaft is estimated and related to their corresponding mechanical energy. Additionally, the mechanical energy is distributed among modes. Based on the distribution, kinetic and potential energy are important for the correlation between propeller torque and propeller shaft response.