Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The case for space: the measurement of capacity utilisation,its relationship with reactionary delay and the calculation of the capacity charge for the British rail network

In Britain, capacity charges are levied on train operators to cover the costs imposed by increased reactionary delays – i.e. the delay that an already late train causes to a following train. These charges are based on the link between capacity utilisation and the level of reactionary delay. An established method for measuring capacity utilisation was adopted called The Capacity Utilisation Index (CUI). In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology based on the theory that the level of reactionary delay will be determined by the minimum gaps that exist between trains. We test this measure with a new data-set for the East Coast Main Line and show that it performs better than CUI. Finally, we comment on the implications of this finding for charging and for the construction of timetables.     

Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach

Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes.     

Analysis of travel activity determinants using robust statistics

This study investigates travel behavior determinants based on a multiday travel survey conducted in the region of Ghent, Belgium. Due to the limited data reliability of the data sample and the influence of outliers exerted on classical principal component analysis, robust principal component analysis (ROBPCA) is employed in order to reveal the explanatory variables responsible for most of the variability. Interpretation of the results is eased by utilizing ROSPCA. The application of ROSPCA reveals six distinct principal components where each is determined by a few variables. Among others, our results suggest a key role of variable categories such as journey purpose-related impedance and journey inherent constraints. Surprisingly, the variables associated with journey timing turn out to be less important. Finally, our findings reveal the critical role of outliers in travel behavior analysis. This suggests that a systematic understanding of how outliers contribute to observed mobility behavior patterns, as derived from travel surveys, is needed. In this regard, the proposed methods serve for processing raw data typically used in activity-based modelling.     

拍戏

受金融海啸的影响,比赛赞助费用降低,我只能减少今年比赛的场次;同时公司也没有太多工作让我做。因此除了比赛和平时上班,多出很多业余时间。因为以前比赛繁忙时间有冲突不得不拒绝的一些媒体采访,这下有了充分空闲来做。跟媒体打交道,是车手职责的一部分。     

去英国买头盔——How to Buya Helmet

前年我第一次参加澳门大赛车时,为了这个特殊而荣耀的第一次,我从日本订了一个新头盔。但新头盔戴上之后却发现太紧了,跟孙悟空被唐僧念了紧箍咒一样头痛欲裂,无奈弃置不用。新赛季即将开始,旧头盔就要过期,我必须要更换新头盔,于是我踏上英国之旅。     

谁对谁错——Who Is Correct？

赛车的每一场比赛都是一场赌博。车手做了最好的准备,车队夜以继日地工作,在现有条件下努力打造赛车,但最后获得的,可能只是个教训。但是赛车运动的魅力也在此,有时候不管你扔进去多少钱,但结果并不会按照个人意愿顺利实现。     

理解消费者对质量的定义

汽车产品的质量总是会受到巨大的关注。质量较差会导致财务成本的增加,这使得制造商把提升质量作为一项商业必要的手段。过去的数年中有无数方法和流程被用来减少浪费和消除缺陷 (比如6-Sigma法和TQM完全质量管理法)。我们并不缺少这样的衡量工具,来衡量因质量问题和返工而产生的负面经济效益。运用这些衡量工具能够理解质量对每辆车或者公司的盈利能力造成的影响,并且帮助公司取得显著的产品质     

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Perspectives of the Expert and Experienced on Challenges to Regional Adaptation for Sea Level Rise: Implications for Multisectoral Readiness and Boundary Spanning

This study focuses on adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in the specific context of the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia. It analyzes the perspectives of stakeholders who are experts in and have experience with SLR to develop an informed understanding of the region’s ability to address SLR and its readiness to pursue adaptation using a whole-of-community approach. A survey of the expert and experienced reveals (1) what they prioritized as the top three most challenging phases of regional adaptation and (2) what issues within those priority areas were the most pressing. Our findings point to the importance of meso- and micro-level boundary spanning across organizations and the whole of the community to ensure that multiple organizations and individuals in a region can be engaged in adaptation. Finally, this work briefly discusses how boundary-spanning approaches can provide a region a pathway toward overcoming barriers to effective climate-related adaptation.