Analyzing aviation safety: Problems,challenges, opportunities

This paper reviews the economic literature relating to aviation safety; analyzes the safety record of commercial passenger aviation in the United States and abroad; examines aviation security as a growing dimension of aviation safety; and identifies emerging issues in airline safety and challenges for aviation safety research. Commercial airline safety has improved dramatically since the industry's birth over a century ago. Fatal accident rates for large scheduled jet airlines have fallen to the level where (along many dimensions) aviation is now the safest mode of commercial transportation. However, safety performance has not been evenly distributed across all segments of commercial aviation, nor among all countries and regions of the world. The finding that developing countries have much poorer safety records has been a persistent conclusion in aviation safety research and continues to be the case. Unfortunately, operations data are not available for many of the airlines that experience fatal accidents, so it is not possible to calculate reliable fatality rates for many segments of the worldwide aviation industry. Without more complete information, it will likely be difficult to make substantial improvements in the safety of these operations. Challenges to improving aviation security include: how much to focus on identifying the terrorists as opposed to identifying the tools they might use; determining how to respond to terrorist threats; and determining the public versus private roles in providing aviation security. The next generation of safety challenges now require development and understanding of new forms of data to improve safety in other segments of commercial aviation, and moving from a reactive, incident-based approach toward a more proactive, predictive and systems-based approach.     

Applying a Mediated Negotiation Framework to Integrated Coastal Zone Management

Conflict is intrinsic to coastal zone management, yet relatively few peer-reviewed studies have examined how coastal managers might apply conflict resolution processes in the coastal zone management (CZM) context. The authors believe that many of these disputes can be addressed by using a structured mediation model that involves face-to-face negotiation with a broad range of stakeholders to build consensus-based agreements for integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). To explore this further, the article examines four questions. First, it examines how CZM literature characterizes conflict and conflict resolution. Second, it looks at how essential principles from the field of alternative dispute resolution and environmental mediation can be best employed in the ICZM context. In particular, it explores the various elements of a stepwise agreement building model, a mediated negotiation process model the authors use in practice that bases its success on a foundation of four principles: representation, participation, legitimacy, and accountability. Next, it details three essential tools used in this process, stakeholder analysis, joint factfinding, and single-text negotiation, that the authors believe to be promising for developing and adopting stable, well-informed, and implementable agreements for ICZM. Finally, the article examines how these structuring principles and process strategies have been used in two recent case studies regarding the management of the San Francisco estuary and its tributaries.     

Coastal Zone Management: Using No-Build Areas to Protect the Shorefront

Five coastal counties in Florida were studied to assess the effect of state-mandated local comprehensive plan policies on hurricane evacuation clearance times and public shelter demand. Numbers of residential units in 2002 and at the time of plan approval were estimated from property parcel data. Abbreviated transportation models were used to calculate 2002 evacuation times and shelter demand and to ascertain the impacts of post-plan residential growth within hurricane hazard areas. Calculated increases in clearance times and shelter demand are not in concert with the state's mandate to maintain or reduce clearance times. State law currently limits the leverage of the state planning agency to compel local governments to implement the required comprehensive plan policies. We recommend a concurrency management strategy that parallels the state's requirement to provide adequate transportation facilities to accommodate the impacts of future residential growth. Such a policy could be employed in other states as well.     

The Quiet Revolution in Visual Resource Management: A view from the coast

Abstract

This introductory piece traces the growth of knowledge and activity associated with visual resource management in general. A specific framework of questions regarding methods of coastal zone visual resource management is presented. The state‐of‐the‐art in methodological studies is listed for each question, and the methodological questions are related to the major articles with the special issue of the Coastal Zone Management Journal. Major legal federal statutes, state statutes, and court cases are reviewed in light of visual resource management in the coastal zone. The remaining articles within the special issue that deal with integration of VRM into decision‐making are then arrayed against a management framework. This framework includes regulatory situations for (1) public land management and planning, (2) public projects involving private lands, and (3) public regulation of private projects.     

Estimating the Economic Benefit of SCUBA Diving in the Similan Islands,Thailand

This article reports the results of the travel cost model using the standard and the truncated count data models to estimate the economic value of the Similan Islands, Thailand, from SCUBA diving. The estimated consumer surplus per visit to the Similan Islands using the truncated negative binomial model was US$3,233 and the economic value of the Similan Islands from SCUBA diving was estimated to be up to US$54.96 m. This study shows that, even without non-use values, coral reefs of the Similan Islands, if properly managed and maintained, will continue to have significant value to both Thai and overseas SCUBA divers, as one of the natural treasures of the world.     

Protecting Estuaries and Coastal Wetlands through State Coastal Zone Management Programs

This article, one part of the National Coastal Zone Management Effectiveness Study, evaluates the effectiveness of state coastal management programs in protecting estuaries and coastal wetlands. State programs were evaluated in a four-step, indicatorbased process to estimate (1) the relative importance of the issue; (2) the potential effectiveness of programs based on the policies, processes, and tools used; (3) outcome effectiveness based on on-the-ground indicators; and (4) overall performance, where outcome effectiveness was compared to issue importance and potential effectiveness. State evaluations were synthesized to provide a national perspective on CZM contributions and effectiveness in estuary and wetland protection. Although on-the-ground outcome data were sparse, they were sufficient to determine at least probable levels of effectiveness for about one-third of the states. Of these states, 80% were performing at expected or higher levels, considering how important the issue was in their state, and the scope and strength of the policies, processes, and tools they had deployed. Monitoring and record keeping, freshwater wetland management, and the use of nonregulatory restoration in coastal management were common program weaknesses. The evaluation approach and indicators used here are recommended as a starting point for designing a national monitoring and performance evaluation system addressing this CZM objective.     

Estimating Recreation and Existence Values of Sea Otter Expansion in California Using Benefit Transfer

This article demonstrates how benefit transfer can quantify tourism and existence values. Existing literature values of sea otters and a meta analysis yield benefit estimates of several million dollars for the increased number of sea otters expected by USFWS in the next decade if the “no otter zone” is eliminated and otters allowed to expand along the Santa Barbara coast. These benefit estimates of sea otter expansion exceed the costs to commercial fishing. Thus the benefit transfer approach can contribute to a more complete economic analysis of endangered species recovery or critical habitat efforts than the current USFWS approach.     

美国人对中国传统文化价值观认同度影响因素分析——基于一项对美国民众的国际调研

中国传统文化价值观讲究“国家”、“家庭”、“父母”、“师长”优先于个人.本研究以“美国人眼中的中国”大型国际调研数据为基础,通过对涉及中国传统文化价值观的8个问题与人口学属性(性别、年龄、受教育程度、收入、种族、党派归属)和媒介接触频率进行回归分析后发现:受教育程度高者及黑人/非洲裔美国民众对中国传统文化价值观的认同度相对较低,而保守党人士及较多通过广播收听新闻的美国民众对中国传统文化价值观的认同度较高.由此导出,在中国国际形象塑造和对美文化交流中,应该注重“分众”传播.     

影响钢轨滚动接触疲劳的货车参数研究

在通常曲线轨道条件下,货车车轮和钢轨之间的导向力将导致钢轨滚动接触疲劳(RCF),本文对影响钢轨RCF的有关各种货车参数进行了参数化研究。仿真模型中考虑了3种货车悬挂系统、400m~10000m半径的曲线。研究结果表明,有的参数对RCF影响十分显著,有的参数则没有影响或影响甚微。     

The Port of Baltimore: off the beaten track?

The Port of Baltimore has recently experienced alarming traffic trends. Most measures of port vitality have been going the wrong way—tonnage, ship calls, market share, steamship service. rail service. Baltimore has been squeezed by external forces and circumstances. Dergulated rail and truck rates have not favoured Baltimore, nor have railroad mergers that have led to rail traffic concentrations at rival seaports. Federal approval of dredging projects has been delaed. Crises in the labour market have created a climate of uncertainty. Global trade patterns and intermodel itineraries have shifted, again, it seems, not to Baltimore'advantage. Baltimore needs new public port policy recommendations. This paper explains some of the problems and offers preliminary suggestions.