A simulation of the simple Mohring model to predict patronage and value of resources consumed for enhanced bus services

Choosing between the competing approaches to providing enhanced bus services requires the ability to predict the effects on patronage and overall benefits to society in terms of Value of Resources Consumed (VRC) of any proposed change. One common approach uses the Mohring model of 1972 and its successors to optimise one or more aspects of the supply of transit services given various level of demand. This paper simulates the operation of a simple circular bus route using the equations of a basic Mohring type model and a Decision Support System (DSS) to endogenise demand under the assumption that there is a fixed demand for travel but commuters can choose between the bus and private vehicle. The selected approach recognises that demand for a particular mode of travel is predicated on the speed of the vehicle in service which is itself determined by the demand for that vehicle (in this model or boarding and alighting time) rather than being determined exogenously. This creates an iterative feedback mechanism whereby changes to the attributes of the bus and car alter mode choice and the speed in service of the bus which, in turn, alters mode choice. The simulation is used to predict changes to patronage and VRC under scenarios regarding changes to the transport network (in terms of fares and running costs, frequency and spacing of bus stops) using parameters from both a Multinomial Logit (MNL) and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL). The results demonstrate that there are large differences in the size and, in some cases, direction of predicted changes to patronage, VRC and revenue, depending on whether the parameters of the MNL or MMNL model are used.     

Delivering trusting partnerships for route bus services: A Melbourne case study

The Thredbo Conference series has developed the idea of negotiated performance-based contracts as effective public transport service delivery mechanisms, with trusting partnerships between authority and operators providing an environment likely to maximise the performance of this delivery mode. However, there is a distinct lack of relevant case study material on trusting partnerships in public transport to affirm this proposition. This paper seeks to redress the balance. It outlines the system development directions that are being implemented for bus services in Melbourne, Australia, and the way that a broad-based constituency has been built to support those directions. It then illustrates the extension of the tactical trusting partnership approach between purchaser and provider to the level of the individual operator contract, showing how this should create a flexible yet disciplined environment to manage and cope with change and growth. The broad nature of the new contracts is summarised and, building on the findings from Thredbo 9, processes that are being implemented to manage the on-going relationship between purchaser and providers are outlined. Finally, the paper argues for extending KPIs beyond the operator to encompass the authority/regulator and the partnership of authority/operator, to extend performance pressures beyond the operator and recognise the interdependence of partners in a true partnership.