City delineation in European applications of LUTI models: review and tests

This paper stresses the lack of attention paid to the geographical definitions of cities in LUTI models as one key detrimental aspect to transferring and generalising LUTI results. First, the argumentation develops from a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed publications about LUTI applications in European cities. We show that most authors do not assess findings against potential geographical biases. Second, theoretical simulations are conducted with UrbanSim applied to a synthetic urban area. By varying the geographical limits of the system and population endowments, our simulations confirm that the absence of control on city delineation weakens the results. Finally, the paper suggests methodological guidelines to improve the comparability of LUTI applications and push forward their theoretical agenda.     

Transportation and land-use preferences and residents’ neighborhood choices: the sufficiency of compact development in the Atlanta region

This paper analyzes the transportation and land-use preference and actual neighborhood choices of a sample of 1,455 residents of metro Atlanta. We develop a stated-preference scale on which desires for neighborhood type are gauged, from preferences for low-density, auto-oriented environments to desires for compact, walkable, and transit-oriented neighborhoods. This scale is then related to desires for change in one’s own neighborhood characteristics after a hypothetical move. If all neighborhood preferences were equally likely to be satisfied, then neighborhood preferences would not be correlated with a desire for change. By contrast, in the current study, stronger preferences for a more walkable environment are associated with greater desire for change in one’s neighborhood characteristics. This suggests an undersupply of compact, walkable, and transit-friendly neighborhood types relative to current demand.

Novel Methods and the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Technique for Estimating Traffic Critical Gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers' sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation assessment of incident detection by cellular phone call-in programs

This research study was designed to assess by simulation the efficacy of incident detection by cellular phone call-in programs. The assessment was conducted by varying the proportion of drivers with cellular phones on the highway so as to mirror the cellular industry statistics that show a continued growth of ownership of cellular phones in the United States. An analytical model, which combined simulation and the limited field data available in the literature, was used to determine measures of effectiveness of the cellular phone-based detection system. The results showed that a cellular phone detection system offers fast incident detection times and higher detection rates for both shoulder and lane blocking incidents. For example, in moderate traffic flow (i.e. 1,550 vehicles per hour per lane), 90 percent of incidents blocking two lanes were detected in 1.5 minutes when the proportion of drivers with cellular phones was one out of 10 drivers, even with only 20 percent of them willing to report incidents. When the current proportion of cellular ownership, i.e. 1 out of 3, was used in the simulation, the detection time improved to 0.8 minutes. The simulation analysis of incident detection by cellular phones also showed that there is a direct relationship between the probability of detection and the detection time; that is, the specification of a higher detection rate resulted in slower detection times. This is in sharp contrast with the results of field study of automatic incident detection (AID) systems which demonstrated an inverse relationship between probability of detection and detection time. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparative environmental impacts of electric bikes in China

Electric two-wheelers have become a significant mode of transportation in China in the past decade. Though marketed and publicized by some as zero-emission vehicles, little past research has been done to quantify the environmental impacts of electric two-wheelers in China. This paper quantifies some of the environmental impacts of the production processes and use phase of electric two-wheelers and compares them to the environmental impacts of competing modes, including bicycles, buses, motorcycles and cars. The use phase emissions are quantified geographically with significantly higher emissions in coal rich regions, compared to regions relying more on hydropower. The results show that electric two-wheelers emit several times lower pollution per kilometer than motorcycles and cars, have comparable emission rates to buses and higher emission rates than bicycles. Lead is one pollutant on which electric two-wheelers perform poorly, because of their use of lead acid batteries.     

整合医疗经验

在推进转译医学的进程中，生物制药研究与医疗保健诊断之间的联系将更加紧密，并从中受益良多。研究人员必须能够获得并使用大量通过临床试验和医疗实践收集的信息。特别是对于某些跨学科领域而言，例如系统生物学、生物标记研究和个，性化用药方面，这些信息更是必不可少的。     

Simulator evaluation of incident detection by transponder-equipped vehicles

This paper explores the efficacy of the driver-based incident detection using the vehicle-to-roadside communication (VRC) system. The proliferation of vehicle tags in the US for automatic toll collection, traffic monitoring, and vehicle navigation and information systems has created an infrastructure capable of supporting a driver-based incident detection system. The research reported herein investigated the use of "activatable" vehicle tags by drivers to send an incident signal to the Traffic Management Center through VRC reader stations spaced uniformly on a highway. The simulation results showed that good detection performance was achieved even at lower levels of market penetration of vehicle tags. The results further showed that detection performance is significantly affected by the severity of the incident in terms of number of lanes closed, the spacing of the VRC reader stations, traffic volume at the time of the incident, and the reporting propensity of the traveling public.The performance of the VRC-based incident reporting system was compared to the performance of two incident detection algorithms that rely on traffic data collected through the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system. The comparison showed that the VRC-based incident reporting system attained shorter detection times and higher detection rates under fairly similar simulated conditions. The paper also discusses issues that need further study through simulation and field experimentation of the VRC-based incident reporting system.     

Empty container repositioning in liner shipping1

The efficient and effective management of empty containers is an important problem in the shipping industry. Not only does it have an economic effect, but it also has an environmental and sustainability impact, since the reduction of empty container movements will reduce fuel consumption and reduce congestion and emissions. The purposes of this paper are: to identify critical factors that affect empty container movements; to quantify the scale of empty container repositioning in major shipping routes; and to evaluate and contrast different strategies that shipping lines, and container operators, could adopt to reduce their empty container repositioning costs. The critical factors that affect empty container repositioning are identified through a review of the literature and observations of industrial practice. Taking three major routes (Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, Europe–Asia) as examples, with the assumption that trade demands could be balanced among the whole network regardless the identities of individual shipping lines, the most optimistic estimation of empty container movements can be calculated. This quantifies the scale of the empty repositioning problem. Depending on whether shipping lines are coordinating the container flows over different routes and whether they are willing to share container fleets, four strategies for empty container repositioning are presented. Mathematical programming is then applied to evaluate and contrast the performance of these strategies in three major routes.