Altimeter assimilation in the OCCAM global model: Part I: A twin experiment

An altimeter data assimilation scheme has been tested in the OCCAM (Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling) global 1/4°, 36-level model using a twin experiment format. The Cooper and Haines displacement scheme is used. The method works well in most regions and depths. Currents and densities in the top 1000 m generally improve by over 50–70% after 5 months of sea level assimilation every 15 days. Below 1000 m, an error reduction of up to 50% is achieved. The errors remain low during a further 60-day run without assimilation. Diagnostics for the North Atlantic, the Tropical Pacific and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown alongside the global averages.The main problems encountered were in weakly stratified regions of the Antarctic and Arctic seas. A scale selective filter is developed to avoid assimilating scales much larger than the local deformation radius, and this avoids the adverse assimilation effects in the southern oceans. A companion paper uses this scheme to assimilate TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter maps.     

Investigations of vehicle securing without lashings for Ro-Ro ships

To reduce the area on deck occupied by each car and the labour and time required for lashing and unlashing cars, it has been proposed by the author that in some conditions, cars on decks could be transported without lashing. To evaluate cargo securing based on this “lashing-free” concept, computational code was developed to calculate the vehicle–deck interactions for various ship motions. The code was structured by incorporating a vehicle model into a piece of ship motion calculation code. A series of time-domain simulations were conducted to evaluate vehicle securing. It was found that for a target ship consisting of a 6000-unit Ro-Ro vessel, vehicle securing is mainly influenced by the ship's rolling motions and is highly dependent on the wave height and loading conditions. It was suggested from the analysis that vehicles could be secured without being lashed in a large area of the ship in specific weather conditions and on some routes with less adverse sea states. However, it is still suggested that conventional lashing holes should be constructed on the deck because in severe sea states the cars will still need to be lashed. The limitations of the current investigations are also presented. The relevant research work was carried out at the Division of Ship Design and Engineering, Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology.     

Exact and simplified estimations for elastic buckling pressures of structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections under external hydrostatic pressure

Structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections have significant potential for application in offshore oil and gas production systems because they combine thermal insulation performance with structural strength and self weight in an integrated way. Such cross sections comprise inner and outer thin-walled pipes with the annulus between them fully filled by a selectable filler material to impart an appropriate combination of properties. Structural pipe-in-pipe cross sections can exhibit several different collapse mechanisms, and the basis of the preferential occurrence of one over the others is of interest. This article presents an exact analysis for predicting the elastic buckling behaviours of a structural pipe-in-pipe cross section when subjected to external hydrostatic pressure. Simplified approximations are also investigated for elastic buckling pressure and mode when the outer pipe and its contact with the filler material is considered as a pipe on an elastic foundation. Results are presented to show the variation of elastic buckling pressure with the relative elastic modulus of the filler and pipe materials, the filler thickness, and the thicknesses of the inner and outer pipes. Case studies based on realistic application scenarios are used to show that the simplified approximations are sufficiently accurate for practical structural design purposes.     

Experimental study on the nonlinear pressure acting on a high-speed vessel in regular waves

It is well known that the hydrodynamic responses of a high-speed vessel traveling in regular head waves of even moderate wave height can show significant nonlinear behavior, and so linear statistical techniques become insufficient for predicting the statistics of responses in irregular waves. On the other hand, it has been shown that an approximate third-order Volterra model is applicable to handling the statistics of some nonlinear seakeeping problems, such as motions and vertical hull girder loads. In the present study, the focus is on the nonlinear behavior of the pressure responses of the hull surface, especially on the pressures acting on alternately wet and dry areas near the waterline and on the bow zone with high deadrise angles that may be subject to slight impact and water pile-up effects. To clarify the validity of applying Volterra modeling to this problem, a series of experiments in regular and irregular head waves were carried out, and approximate third-order and fifth-order Volterra models with the proposed algorithm for finding frequency response functions (FRFs) were applied as a means of validation. In the present article, the first part of the validation was performed using experimental data in regular waves. It was confirmed that the third-order Volterra model has adequate accuracy to simulate deterministically the variation of pressure responses in regular waves of different wave steepness up to a wave amplitude to wavelength ratio of 0.01 even for the highly nonlinear pressures acting on the above-mentioned areas of the hull surface.     

Simulation of the mean zero-up-crossing wave period using artificial neural networks trained with a simulated annealing algorithm

The aim of this work was to develop a predictive model to forecast the mean zero-up-crossing wave periods (T _z ) for 3-hourly sea states at a location in the Pacific using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Seven multilayer ANNs were trained with a simulated annealing algorithm. The output of each trained ANN was used to estimate each of the seven parameters of a new distribution called the hepta-parameter spline proposed for the conditional distribution of T _z , given some mean zero-up-crossing wave periods and significant wave heights. After estimating the parameters of the distribution, the model was used to simulate and predict future values of T _z . Forecasting a sea state and developing the joint distribution of sea state characteristics with the help of the simulated characteristics are also discussed in this article.     

Maritime interests in the EU policy-making: Structures,practices, and governability of collective action

Throughout Europe, a number of maritime interests have re-targeted their lobbying structures and strategies aiming to influence the development of the maritime related European Union (EU) policies. The paper examines these maritime interests’ mobilisation in the making of the Common EU Maritime Transport Policy (CMTP). First, it provides a review of the role of these interest groups and the implications of the observed collective interests’ representation. Then, with the contribution a data-set of replies to a questionnaire distributed to all the interest groups that are involved in EU maritime affairs, the paper analyses the variety of interest groups representing the maritime sector in EU affairs. The focus is on the structures (i.e. membership numbers and types, location, internal structures, budget) and the lobbying practices of the 37 identified EU level maritime related organisations. The paper also presents an evaluation of the most positive and most negative parameters of the ‘EU environment’ and the ‘economic environment’ that assist, or undermine, the governability cohesiveness of this collective action. This study provides information on whether and under what conditions maritime interests are able to form comprehensive EU-level organisations capable of representing their members and their interests in the EU policy making process     

Maritime search and rescue: Benefit or burden for society?

Just twenty five years have passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) provided the legal and internationally harmonized framework for maritime search and rescue operations. While a number of nations only had to adapt their well-established national services it took great efforts for other nations to develop agencies able to fulfil or outstrip minimum requirements. However, the majority of nations (well aware of the humanitarian nature of that task) have been afraid to cope with this challenge and the related financial burdens since the benefits to local, regional, or even national economies are not always clear to the relevant national administrating authorities.     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

The external cost of speed at sea: An analysis based on selected short sea shipping routes

According to the mid-term review of the EU White Paper on Transport, Short Sea Shipping (SSS) is expected to grow at a rate of 59% (metric tonnes) between 2000 and 2020. If we consider that the overall expected increase in both freight exchanges and volume is 50%, sea transport is one of the most feasible alternatives to reduce traffic congestion on European roads. Maritime transportation may compete with road transport as far as certain traffics are concerned, but only when assuming external costs. This paper analyzes several intermodal transport chains involving a sea leg by comparing the effect of pollutant emissions from different ship types and road transport in terms of potential external cost savings. The translation of these emissions into environmental costs shows, for certain conditions, savings in the case of sea transport that would justify the use of an environmental bonus to promote the sea option.