A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers’ decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Not</Emphasis> driving alone? American commuting in the twenty-first century

This paper investigates recent commuting trends by American workers. Unlike most studies of commuting that rely on data from the American Community Survey this study utilizes the American Time Use Survey to detail the complex commuting patterns of modern-day workers. Changes in the price of gasoline in recent years suggest that the incidence of “driving alone” should be on the decline. Indeed, results show that the sensitivity of modal commuting with respect to changes in gasoline prices appears to be relatively large. We estimate the gasoline-price elasticity of driving alone to be 0.057 and the gasoline-price elasticity of carpooling to be 0.502. Additional factors also affect commuting, including socio-economic characteristics and social desires. However, it is changes in gasoline prices that appear to account for nearly all of the recent variation in the mode chosen for commuting.     

Modeling the spatial and temporal dimensions of recreational activity participation with a focus on physical activities

This study presents a unified framework to understand the weekday recreational activity participation time-use of adults, with an emphasis on the time expended in physically active recreation pursuits by location and by time-of-day. Such an analysis is important for a better understanding of how individuals incorporate physical activity into their daily activities on a typical weekday, and can inform the development of effective policy interventions to facilitate physical activity. Furthermore, such a study of participation and time use in recreational activity episodes contributes to activity-based travel demand modeling, since recreational activity participation comprises a substantial share of individuals’ total non-work activity participation. The methodology employed here is the multiple discrete continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model, which provides a unified framework to explicitly and endogenously examine time use by type, location, and timing. The data for the empirical analysis is drawn from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (BATS), supplemented with other secondary sources that provide information on physical environment variables. To our knowledge, this is the first study to jointly address the issues of ‘where’, ‘when’ and ‘how much’ individuals choose to participate in ‘what type of (recreational) activity’.     

Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneously

Agent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit.     

Equality of bargaining power in contracts for international liner shipping

Mandatory rules exist in contracts for international liner shipping primarily because of imbalances and non-equity in the allocation of contract responsibilities. The superior bargaining position owned by the carriers depends largely upon liner market monopoly levels, the supply and demand balance between the shipper and carrier, and the cargo volume size of the shippers. With the development of shipping technologies, mode of transport, and shipping competition policy, the unequal comparison of bargaining forces between shippers and carriers changes. When the existing mandatory rule was deemed no longer necessary due to changing circumstances, legislation requirements to restore freedom to contract became apparent. When both sides have equal bargaining power, adoption of the principle of freedom of contract for their business relationships is suitable. The Rotterdam Rules concerning freedom of volume contract construction is based on equal bargaining powers between both sides and responds to the evolving situation of the industry. The Rules represent the development trend of today’s theory of contracts for international liner shipping and the demand for legal and institutional changes.     

The UN’s 2030 Agenda for sustainable development and the maritime transport domain: the role and challenges of IMO and its stakeholders through a grounded theory perspective

In September 2015, the United Nations (UN) officially adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development together with 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) (UN, 2016). The attainment of the SDGs requires a strong commitment by all UN Member States, not least by the Member States at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This empirical research aims to identify the role and challenges of stakeholders at IMO, when implementing the UN’s 2030 Agenda in the international maritime transport domain using a grounded theory approach. This paper describes the methodology and the analytical process undertaken and presents the main findings based on empirical data. The results are presented as a set of six propositions. The first proposition presents the phenomena engulfing Member States at IMO stemming out from lack of knowledge and policy incoherency on the 2030 Agenda at national level. The other five propositions suggest how these challenges could potentially be best alleviated through an IMO-led strategy on sustainable development within the context of the 2030 Agenda, supported by an appropriate governance structure that sees the introduction of strategic actors for coordinating the implementation of the SDGs at national level. With the support of a Task Force, and by also making use of the IMO Member State Audit Scheme (IMSAS), to create more awareness and ownership, the strategic actors could work towards balancing the three dimensions of sustainable development—the economic, the environmental, and the social dimensions—which were found to be imbalanced in the international maritime transport domain.     

Barriers for adoption of energy efficiency operational measures in shipping industry

According to the Third Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Study 2014 of International Maritime Organization (IMO), the total emission in 2012 are estimated to be 949 million tonnes which is 2.7% of global CO₂ emission by total shipping and expected to increase from 2012 levels by 50–250% by 2050. Significant changes are needed to all industry by implementation of energy efficiency design and operational measures to meet existing and future global emission reduction targets. Although the fuel cost-reducing effects of some energy efficiency measures and new technologies are well established and matured, shipping companies appear reluctant to adopt them. Besides, it is observed that the stakeholders are directly or indirectly involved for implementation of energy efficiency measures in shipping industry. Therefore, the objective for this study was to identify the barriers to energy efficiency operational measures by a qualitative survey among various stakeholders from all corners of shipping industry. It has been found in the research that the barriers for implementation of all cost-free operational measures are almost the same such as lack of information of the measure, lack of awareness and competence of ship crews and operation difficulties which are in nature of information and technical barriers. But financial issue and owner’s interest are the key barriers for some other operational measures which are related to costing and need investment for implementation.     

Empirical Equilibrium Beach Profiles Along the Eastern Tombolo of Giens

Beaches along the eastern branch of the Giens double tombolo are subject to coastal erosion. Prediction of the behavior of the beach profile configuration in response to natural and anthropogenic changes using the concept of equilibrium beach profile (EBP) could be useful in finding the most suitable measure to address the erosion problem. Field investigation data of 11 beaches along the eastern tombolo were supplied for this study, and a nonlinear fitting technique was applied to estimate the best parameter values of seven empirical formulations of the relevant EBP. All of the observed beach profiles could be described by a single function, but a single EBP was inadequate to represent all of the beach profiles observed. The variation found could be explained in terms of longshore variation of bathymetry, sediment size, and wave parameters. Analysis of the validity of the EBPs revealed that a representative EBP of each beach is governed by different equilibrium parameters.     

Effect of Sea Level Rise and Offshore Wave Height Change on Nearshore Waves and Coastal Structures

In 1994, Townend proposed a method to calculate the relative changes in various wave characteristics and structure-related parameters due to sea level rise for regular waves. The method was extended to irregular waves by Cheon and Suh in 2016. In this study, this method is further extended to include the effect of future change in offshore wave height and the sea level rise. The relative changes in wavelength, refraction coefficient, shoaling coefficient, and wave height in nearshore area are presented as functions of the relative changes in water depth and offshore wave height. The calculated relative changes in wave characteristics are then used to estimate the effect of sea level rise and offshore wave height change on coastal structures by calculating the relative changes in wave run-up height, overtopping discharge, crest freeboard, and armor weight of the structures. The relative changes in wave characteristics and structure-related parameters are all expressed as a function of the relative water depth for various combinations of the relative changes in water depth and offshore wave height.     

Do maritime passengers’ subsidies in Europe affect prices?

Some European governments subsidize their residents when they travel at sea. This paper seeks to analyze the impact on prices of maritime passengers’ subsidies in Europe. Following a review of the scarce academic literature on this topic and the subsidy scheme in Europe, a sample of firms’ prices and other characteristics of 40 European routes for 2016 are analyzed. Both an estimation of a price equation and a matching approach are applied and reach the same conclusion: prices per kilometer are around 40 per cent higher on those subsidized routes due to subsidies. This outcome reduces the potential subsidy gain to consumers.