A human factors systems approach to examining oil spills in tankbarge operations: analysis and reappraisal of management policies

An important problem in the US maritime industry is the large number of oil spills that occur as a result of oil transfer operations involving tankbarges. Recently, the US Coast Guard initiated a new programme entitled Prevention Through People that represents a concerted effort towards preventing human errors leading to casualities and oil spills. The purpose of the study reported in this paper was to explore tankbarge oil transfer operations from the standpoint of regulatory, management, and operational perspectives in order to determine the likelihood that this new initiative will indeed result in a better understanding of the causal basis for human error in these operations and, more generally, in the maritime industry. The results of this novel study are discussed and summarized in terms of four broad classes of recommendations.     

Relationship between proximity to transit and ridership for journey-to-work trips in Chicago

The use of privately owned vehicles (POVs) contributes significantly to US energy consumption (EC) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe). Strategies for reducing POV use include shifting trips to other modes, particularly public transit. Choices to use transit are based on characteristics of travelers, their trips, and the quality of competing transportation services. Here we focus on the proximity of rail stations to trip origins/destinations as a factor affecting mode choice for work trips. Using household travel survey data from Chicago, we evaluate the profile of journey-to-work (JTW) trips, assessing mode share and potential for more travelers to use rail. For work trips having the origin/destination as close as 1 mile from rail transit stations, POVs were still the dominant travel mode, capturing as much as 61%, followed by rail use at 14%. This high degree of POV use coupled with the proportion of JTW trips within close proximity to rail stations indicated that at least some of these trips may be candidates for shifting from POV to rail. For example, shifting all work trips with both the origin/destination within 1 mile of commuter rail stations would potentially reduce the energy associated with all work-related POV driving trips by a maximum of 24%. Based on the analysis of trips having the origin and destination closest to train stations, a complete shift in mode from POV to train could exceed CO₂ reduction goals targeted in the Chicago Climate Action Plan. This could occur with current settlement patterns and the use of existing infrastructure. However, changes in traveler behavior and possibly rail operation would be necessary, making policy to motivate this change essential.     

The applicability of non-cooperative game theory in transport analysis

Various models that incorporate concepts from Non-Cooperative Game Theory (NCGT) are described in the transport literature. Game Theory provides powerful tools for analysing transport systems, but these tools have some drawbacks that should be recognised. In the current paper we review games that describe transport problems and discuss them within a uniform context. Although the paper does not introduce new tools, it presents insights concerning the relations between transport models and games. We divide existing games into groups and show that some common features characterise multiple games. We distinguish between games that make a conceptual contribution and games that are suitable for application. Compact or symmetric game structures make remarkable observations but often do not support actual decision-making. Less aesthetic formats, most of which are Stackelberg games between authorities and travellers, are stronger as instruments that assist in determining real-life policies; these formulations can be treated by practitioners as mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints and not as games. Yaron Hollander is currently conducting economic research of bus reliability at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. He previously worked for the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology; for the Israel Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Joseph N. Prashker is a professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology. Till recently he served as head of the Transportation Research Institute at the Technion. His interests are behavioural demand models, network analysis, and Game Theory applications in transportation.     

Empirical analysis of transportation investment and economic development at state, county and municipality levels

Numerous studies have found positive correlation between transportation infrastructure investment and economic development. Basically these studies use a conventional production function model augmented by a public capital input, mainly highways, rail and other transportation facilities. While the range of the measured economic growth effects varies widely among studies, the positive elasticity between transportation investment and economic development is now commonly accepted. Still a major puzzling issue is that the magnitude of the measured effect seems to decline significantly as the econometric model is further refined, mainly with regard to space and time lags. That is, the use of national or state data produces elasticity results, which are much larger than when using county or municipality data. Similarly, when we introduce into the econometric model a lag between the times when the transportation investments are made and when the economic benefits transpire, the measured elasticities decline with the size of the lag. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to investigate these issues analytically and empirically and provide a plausible explanation. We do so by using alternative econometric models, applying them to a database, which is composed of longitudinal state, county and municipality observations from 1990 to 2000. The key result is that transportation investments produce strong spillover effects relative to space and time. Unless these factors are properly accounted for many reported empirical results are likely to be overly biased, with important policy implications.     

对标国际营商环境评价构建城市公交KPI考核体系

立足为优化国际营商环境贡献城市公交之智、发挥城市公交之力,以考核城市公交企业绩效目标为研究视角.本文在国内外研究基础之上,结合现行国家行业规范标准及实地调研结果,对标国际营商环境内涵特征构建城市公交KPI考核体系,并引入熵值法、层次分析法综合计算城市公交KPI考核指标权重,找出公交行业的关键事项或活动,为城市公交发展提供事前预防、事中控制和事后治理的科学决策参考,以提升城市公交运营管理效率和服务质量水平.     

Integrating geographic information systems into transit ridership forecast models

Researchers have produced sophisticated modal split and transit demand models, including forecasts that are sensitive to the level of service. However, little effort has been made to integrate these models into corridor studies and route alignment analyses since (a) re-routing is itself an extremely complex modeling task, and (b) the results of the demand models are presented in tabular form with no facility to visualize spatial patterns and relationships that, if recognized, would aid in the routing tasks. GIS tools can be used, together with the demand models, to identify both clusters of city blocks that house families with certain socioeconomic characteristics and potential trip destinations conducive to transit use. In other words, GIS tools can be used to better measure some of the factors that are needed by transit demand models. The results of these models can be displayed graphically, enabling analysts to target places needing improved service, evaluate route re-alignment alternatives, and operate more efficient and effective bus lines. This paper examines how a particular class of model used by transit agencies for estimating ridership can be integrated with GIS tools in order to facilitate such analyses. It also explores the effects of visualization of routes, demographics, and employment data on the process of designing route alignments with better targeting of high transit ridership areas. This paper is part of a research project sponsored by the Region One University Transportation Center, at MIT.     

The transaction cost approach to modeling the demand for automobiles

The purchase of an automobile involves significant transaction costs in addition to the purchase price. Therefore, the assumptions implied by static car holding models are invalid. This paper describes a dynamic approach to the modeling of level-of-ownership and auto-type choice, based on a transaction choice model which utilizes information on past car ownership. The cost or disutility of a transaction depends on the attributes of the household and the purchased car, as well as on past car-ownership characteristics. A set of assumptions underlying the incorporation of transaction costs in the model is presented. The paper discusses the econometric implications of omitting the dynamic attributes (i.e., past ownership characteristics). A disaggregate model was estimated, using a choice-based sample consisting of a random sample of households enriched with a sample of households which transacted in the car market during the study period. This sampling method combined with a random choice of a subset of the car alternatives provides for a cost-effective method to estimate a transaction model.     

Journey to work and job search characteristics of the urban poor

Gender differences in work trip and job search patterns have received several analytical attention in recent years. A consistent finding in the literature is that women work closer to home than men because of their lower income, greater household responsibilities, and heavier reliance on public transit. While these findings pervade the literature, there has been little analysis into the extent to which they hold in the exclusive case of the urban poor. Can poor women afford to choose between jobs on the basis of journey to work considerations, any more than poor men? Using a survey data from Edmonton, this study examines the gender differences in commuting and job search patterns of the urban poor. The findings suggest that, even among the low income population, women have shorter work trips and greater preference for part-time jobs than men because of their child care and household responsibilities. More women than men did not have enough time for their job search activities; and fewer women than men were prepared to accept job offers in all parts of the study area due to their household responsibilities. The results suggest that while males' employment problems are tied primarily to the working of the labour market, through inadequate skills and lack of good-paying jobs, females' employment problems are more explicable in terms of their role as mothers and homemakers.     

Effect of traffic information on commuters' propensity to change route and departure time

Considerable public and private resources are devoted to the collection and dissemination of real-time traffic information in the Chicago area. Such information is intended to help individuals make more informed travel decisions, yet its effect on behavior remains largely unexplored. This study evaluates the effect of traffic information on travelers' route and departure time changes and provides a stronger basis for developing advanced information systems. Downtown Chicago automobile commuters were surveyed during the AM peak period. The results indicate that a majority of the respondents access, use and respond to information. For example, individuals use travel information to reduce their anxiety—even if they do not change travel decisions; this indicates that information may have “intrinsic” value. That is, simply knowing traffic conditions is valued by travelers. More than 60% of the respondents had used traffic information to modify their travel decisions. Multivariate analysis using the ordered probit model showed that individuals were more likely to use traffic reports for their route changes if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and timely, and frequently listened to traffic reports. Respondents were more likely to change their departure times if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and relevant, and frequently listened to traffic reports. The implication for Advanced Traveler Information Systems are that they may be designed to support both enroute and pre-trip decisions. ATIS performance, measured in terms of accuracy, relevance and timeliness would be critical in the success of such systems. Further, near-term prediction of traffic conditions on congested and unreliable routes (where conditions change rapidly) and incident durations is desirable.     

核废料的处理 分离嬗变可以缩短核废料的毒性期

核能在全欧洲能源供应方面居功甚伟。在欧盟25个成员国中，13个国家共有148座核反应堆，产生的总电力达到125GWh，每年可生产电力850TWh，占欧盟总电力需求的35%.