私人汽车对城市交通的影响与对策研究——以宁波为例

宁波市在经济发展迅猛、百姓购车热情高涨的情况下,正积极着手进行着城市交通网络的规划、优化工作,此项工作已经引起社会的广泛关注,优先发展公交的呼声也越来越高,这也是从根本上解决城市交通拥挤堵塞状况的必然选择.     

基于S变换的柴油机燃烧差异的诊断研究

分析了传统的基于平稳过程的傅里叶变换存在的局限性,采用了S变换时频分析法对振动信号进行分析。对比不同燃烧状况时的缸内压力曲线、压升率曲线及振动信号S变换的结果,表明振动信号S变换得到的时频图像同缸内燃烧过程有密切的关系。为了便于对各缸的燃烧状况进行定量分析,提出了利用时频域内各点的幅值和表征各缸燃烧差异的新方法。在4缸柴油机上进行模拟试验对该方法进行验证,结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

低输量运行管道的不稳定性分析

针对热油管道的低输量问题,着重从管道的水力特性和热力特性2个方面进行分析,评述了温度和管道摩阻损失随距离和输量变化的情况,总结出管道低输量运行会带来凝管事故、翻越点增多、发生管道超压现象和费用增加等问题,并提出了降低低输量管道不稳定性的方法及具体措施,为保证管道的安全运行提供了参考.     

Analysing Demand for Suburban Trips: A Mixed RP/SP Model with Latent Variables and Interaction Effects

We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present. The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion, in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service.     

Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

Correcting injection pressure maladjustments to reduce NOX emissions by marine diesel engines

Emissions from the exhausts of marine diesel engines comprises several different gases including NO_X. These are currently regulated at the international level under Regulation 13 of ANNEX VI of MARPOL 73/78, but this regulation only applies to new engines and is based on bench tests, for only a single engine designated the “parent engine”. Here, the need to take measurements from across their whole range and once in operation on board a vessel is examined. This would not only improve assessment of new equipment against the current regulation, but would also detect defects in the functioning of the engine.     

Surface patterns of zooplankton spatial variability detected by high frequency sampling in the NW Mediterranean. Role of density fronts

High frequency sampling was performed in daylight hours along a 35 km transect in the Ligurian Sea to investigate the upper layer zooplankton distribution during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The results show detailed spatial structure and biomass of key zooplankton functional groups, copepods, salps and krill larvae, within the different water masses characterizing this region. Although observed values of total copepod biomass distribution were rather constant along the transect, species-specific patterns were observed in the copepod spatial distribution. The larger species Calanus helgolandicus, as well as Centropages typicus, Oithona spp., and Oncaea spp., were associated with the frontal zone. However, Acartia spp. had a scattered distribution, and Clausocalanus/Paracalanus did not have a clear pattern. In addition, krill larvae were concentrated in the frontal area and salps had a scattered pattern. The cross-shore zooplankton distribution appeared strongly influenced by both the Northern Ligurian current governing inshore waters, which acts as a major flushing forcing, and the Ligurian front, which governs offshore waters and may act as retention area for zooplankton.     

Can mixed logit reveal the actual data generating process? Some implications for environmental assessment

Recent advances in the specification of the utility function of mixed logit models allow the analyst, in principle, to consider a vast variety of individual heterogeneity. Nevertheless, when estimating the model it is common practice to experience severe difficulties in discriminating between different specifications to infer the “true” data generating process. We investigate possible sources for this difficulty focusing on the confounding effects inherent in two basic assumptions of discrete choice model utilities: linearity in the parameters and added error terms. We analyse the role of these assumptions in giving rise to confounding effects and why this increases the difficulty of discriminating among different structures. Finally, we investigate how these problems may affect benefit appraisal using these models. Empirical evidence is provided for two different environmental contexts and a more typical transport context using various kinds of data.     

桥梁支座典型病害分析及对策

随着桥梁建设的飞速发展和荷载等级的不断提高,支座也被广泛地使用于桥梁中,同时也出现了支座使用、安装和耐久性问题等等,这些问题都是影响结构安全性和耐久性的重要因素,需要通过科学手段、方法加以诊断、评价。     

二尖瓣脱垂综合征患者QT离散度分析

测定了30例二尖瓣脱垂综合征伴室性心律失常患者的QTd。结果发现，二尖瓣脱垂组QTd、QTcd、JTd显著延长，说明心室肌复极有局部的不均一性和电不稳定性，离散度与室性心律失常的发生密切相关，可能是室性心律失常发生的机理之一。QTd不仅能预测室性心律失常及猝死，而且能指导临床用药，是一很好的临床观察指标。