Inter-temporal variation in the travel time and travel cost parameters of transport models

The parameters for travel time and travel cost are central in travel demand forecasting models. Since valuation of infrastructure investments requires prediction of travel demand for future evaluation years, inter-temporal variation of the travel time and travel cost parameters is a key issue in forecasting. Using two identical stated choice experiments conducted among Swedish drivers with an interval of 13 years, 1994 and 2007, this paper estimates the inter-temporal variation in travel time and cost parameters (under the assumption that the variance of the error components of the indirect utility function is equal across the two datasets). It is found that the travel time parameter has remained constant over time but that the travel cost parameter has declined in real terms. The trend decline in the cost parameter can be entirely explained by higher average income level in the 2007 sample compared to the 1994 sample. The results support the recommendation to keep the travel time parameter constant over time in forecast models, but to deflate the travel cost parameter with the forecasted income increase among travellers and the relevant income elasticity of the cost parameter. Evidence from this study further suggests that the inter-temporal and the cross-sectional income elasticities of the cost parameter are equal. The average elasticity is found to be ?0.8 to ?0.9 in the present sample of drivers, and the elasticity is found to increase with the real income level, both in the cross-section and over time.     

在不同水质地区实地进行海洋生物膜对SS UNS S32760不锈钢腐蚀行为研究（英文）

In the presence of biofilms, stainless steels(SS) exhibits an increase in corrosion potential, called ennoblement. In the present study, the corrosion potential(Ecorr) behavior of the duplex SS UNS S32760 was recorded simultaneously with the in situ marine biofilm formation in two areas at Arraial do Cabo,Southeastern Brazil. The biofilm at Forno Harbor(an anthropogenically disturbed area) was characterized by higher relative abundances of Bacteria at day 2, followed by diatoms(especially Navicula sp.) on day 10 and dinoflagellates on day 18,whereas no clear trend was recorded at Cabo Frio Island(an undisturbed area). The ennoblement of Ecorr values was site-dependent. In a complementary laboratory assay, biofilms were removed and the Ecorr values registered in sterile conditions for the subsequent 10 days and corroborated in situ results. Understanding biofilms and SS interactions has important implications for materials science and engineering decisions as well as helping to fill in important gaps in this knowledge.     

The value of time and external benefits in bicycle appraisal

We estimate the value of time savings, different cycling environments and additional benefits in cost-benefit analysis of cycling investments. Cyclists’ value of travel time savings turns out to be high, considerably higher than the value of time savings on alternative modes. Cyclists also value other improvements highly, such as separated bicycle lanes. As to additional benefits of cycling improvements in the form of health and reduced car traffic, our results do not support the notion that these will be a significant part in a cost-benefit analysis. Bicyclists seem to take health largely into account when making their travel choices, implying that it would be double-counting to add total health benefits to the analysis once the consumer surplus has been correctly calculated. As to reductions in car traffic, our results indicate that the cross-elasticity between car and cycle is low, and hence benefits from traffic reductions will be small. However, the valuations of improved cycling speeds and comfort are so high that it seems likely that improvements for cyclists are cost-effective compared to many other types of investments, without having to invoke second-order, indirect effects. In other words, our results suggest that bicycle should be viewed as a competitive mode of travel and not primarily as a means to achieve improved health or reduced car traffic.     

Influence of repeated and delayed excitations in combined subspace identification

The application of combined subspace identification methods to land vehicles would allow the modal parameters of the vehicle to be obtained, while it is in operation, thus improving the vehicle modal characterisation. However, when a land vehicle is circulating through a straight line, the excitations applied to the different axles are identical among them but with a certain time delay. The presence of repeated excitations with different time delays implies that the past and future subspaces include common vectors that may lead to problems in the application of the method. To analyse its influence, an index called the reduction coefficient resulting from excitations (RCE) has been defined. RCE evaluates the amount of information eliminated in the oblique projection due to the effect of repeated excitations. The use of RCE enables the selection of analysis parameters, particularly the sampling frequency, the signals grouping and some specific parameters of the subspace identification methods.     

斯德哥尔摩的拥挤收费政策——政策实施5年后的效果、接受度及经验启示

根据2006年拥挤收费政策试运行结束后的公民投票结果,2007年,斯德哥尔摩正式实施了该政策。讨论了其至2011年6月首个5年内的政策实施效果。结果表明,受到外部因素影响,由收费引起的交通减少量随时间推移稍有增加。2008年的清洁汽车免税措施可显著提高销售量。结合最新研究成果和瑞典的经验,讨论了公众接受度和政治接受度。得到的结论是：拥挤收费对交通系统的主客观影响,以及环境和政治态度,是公众支持拥挤收费的基础;同时,为了获得政治支持,必须要进行体制改革、解决权力问题。最后,简要讨论了拥挤收费的实施对瑞典交通规划进程的可能影响。     

Impact of Transmilenio on density,land use,and land value in Bogotá

While urban sprawl has been the general growth pattern in most developing cities worldwide, the city of Bogotá has undergone a process of densification in specific areas in the past decade. Using a differences-in-differences methodology, we have shown that the bus rapid transit (BRT) network, Transmilenio, built in this period is one of the variables that account for this higher density. Areas served by Transmilenio, especially those in the periphery that have been provided with feeder bus routes, have a higher growth than zones without access to this system. Using a similar methodology for assessing the growth of newly built areas, we have not found a clear relation between the BRT and recent evolution of residential, commercial, or work areas. However, recent scientific literature confirms an impact of the BRT on land value.     

Cross-sector Analysis of Four Renegotiated Transport PPPs in Portugal

Abstract

This paper uses the Fertagus renegotiation results as a reference and explores the features that made it such a widely commended case, aiming to identify the best practice to be followed in other cases. The two main questions that this paper aimed to respond were: Was the success of the renegotiation process in the Fertagus contract due to mode-specific factors? Are those factors (mode specific or not) transferable to other modes under public private partnership (PPP) contracts and if so, to what extent? Regarding the mode specificity and transferability analysis, it can be noticed that much of the features were not mode specific in theory, however for the successful transferability to other transport modes, some changes should be made to the PPP model taking into account modal specificities and national contexts.     

Carsharing in Switzerland: identifying new markets by predicting membership based on data on supply and demand

Transportation - This study examines the relationship between the supply and demand variables that determine the probability of individuals joining a carsharing organization, using data from the...     

Incorporating social interaction into hybrid choice models

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework for the incorporation of social interaction effects into choice models. The developed method provides insights for modeling the effect of social interaction on the formation of psychological factors (latent variables) and on the decision-making process. The assumption is based on the fact that the way the decision maker anticipates and processes the information regarding the behavior and the choices exhibited in her/his social environment, affects her/his attitudes and perceptions, which in turn affect her/his choices. The proposed method integrates choice models with decision makers’ psychological factors and latent social interaction. The model structure is simultaneously estimated providing an improvement over sequential methods as it provides consistent and efficient estimates of the parameters. The methodology is tested within the context of a household aiming to identify the social interaction effects between teenagers and their parents regarding walking-loving behavior and then the effect of this on mode to school choice behavior. The sample consists of 9,714 participants aged from 12 to 18 years old, representing 21 % of the adolescent population of Cyprus. The findings from the case study indicate that if the teenagers anticipate that their parents are walking lovers, then this increases the probability of teenagers to be walking-lovers too and in turn to choose walking to school. Generally, the findings from the application result in: (a) improvements in the explanatory power of choice models, (b) latent variables that are statistically significant, and (c) a real-world behavioral representation that includes the social interaction effect.     

The risk of whiplash-induced medical impairment in rear-end impacts for males and females in driver seat compared to front passenger seat

The objective of this study was to study whiplash injury outcome in front-seat occupants in rear-end impacts using double paired comparison technique. The combination of gender, seated position, and outcome was analyzed. Folksam, a Swedish insurance company, has a database of whiplash injuries. A questionnaire was used to collect study data. The response rate was 81%. The inclusion criteria included medical impairment one year after the impact, as judged by medical specialists. The study included rear-end impacts between 1990 and 1999 that resulted in at least one permanent neck injury impairment; in total, 430 impacts with 860 occupants and 444 impairments. Of those suffering impairment, 302 were female and 142 male; 235 were seated in the driver's seat and 209 in the front passenger seat. Relative risk estimates for impairing whiplash injury, by gender and seated position:

1.

Driver male (DM)/passenger female (PF) relative risk = 0.5 n = 218