Incorporating social interaction into hybrid choice models

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework for the incorporation of social interaction effects into choice models. The developed method provides insights for modeling the effect of social interaction on the formation of psychological factors (latent variables) and on the decision-making process. The assumption is based on the fact that the way the decision maker anticipates and processes the information regarding the behavior and the choices exhibited in her/his social environment, affects her/his attitudes and perceptions, which in turn affect her/his choices. The proposed method integrates choice models with decision makers’ psychological factors and latent social interaction. The model structure is simultaneously estimated providing an improvement over sequential methods as it provides consistent and efficient estimates of the parameters. The methodology is tested within the context of a household aiming to identify the social interaction effects between teenagers and their parents regarding walking-loving behavior and then the effect of this on mode to school choice behavior. The sample consists of 9,714 participants aged from 12 to 18 years old, representing 21 % of the adolescent population of Cyprus. The findings from the case study indicate that if the teenagers anticipate that their parents are walking lovers, then this increases the probability of teenagers to be walking-lovers too and in turn to choose walking to school. Generally, the findings from the application result in: (a) improvements in the explanatory power of choice models, (b) latent variables that are statistically significant, and (c) a real-world behavioral representation that includes the social interaction effect.     

Impact of Transmilenio on density,land use,and land value in Bogotá

While urban sprawl has been the general growth pattern in most developing cities worldwide, the city of Bogotá has undergone a process of densification in specific areas in the past decade. Using a differences-in-differences methodology, we have shown that the bus rapid transit (BRT) network, Transmilenio, built in this period is one of the variables that account for this higher density. Areas served by Transmilenio, especially those in the periphery that have been provided with feeder bus routes, have a higher growth than zones without access to this system. Using a similar methodology for assessing the growth of newly built areas, we have not found a clear relation between the BRT and recent evolution of residential, commercial, or work areas. However, recent scientific literature confirms an impact of the BRT on land value.     

How to turn an innovative concept into a success? An application to seaport-related innovation

The main objective of this paper is ‘to assess the conditions, including policy support, under which innovative concepts have a high chance of getting adopted and being successful’. The work will start from the state-of-the-art with the following goals targeted. Firstly, to identify the paths that new innovative concepts usually follow, what key determinants are, which actors are involved, and what policy has been doing and can do. As part of this, a typology of variables is established, which will be the basis for the identification of successful adoption paths. Illustrations are provided of the performance of different innovative concepts in the seaport sector. A further goal is to propose policy recommendations, identify best practices, barriers to implementation and transferability of innovative concepts and processes. Finally, the research establishes developments needed in assessment methods and a methodological framework if innovative concepts are introduced.     

The risk of whiplash-induced medical impairment in rear-end impacts for males and females in driver seat compared to front passenger seat

The objective of this study was to study whiplash injury outcome in front-seat occupants in rear-end impacts using double paired comparison technique. The combination of gender, seated position, and outcome was analyzed. Folksam, a Swedish insurance company, has a database of whiplash injuries. A questionnaire was used to collect study data. The response rate was 81%. The inclusion criteria included medical impairment one year after the impact, as judged by medical specialists. The study included rear-end impacts between 1990 and 1999 that resulted in at least one permanent neck injury impairment; in total, 430 impacts with 860 occupants and 444 impairments. Of those suffering impairment, 302 were female and 142 male; 235 were seated in the driver's seat and 209 in the front passenger seat. Relative risk estimates for impairing whiplash injury, by gender and seated position:

1.

Driver male (DM)/passenger female (PF) relative risk = 0.5 n = 218     

Cross-sector Analysis of Four Renegotiated Transport PPPs in Portugal

Abstract

This paper uses the Fertagus renegotiation results as a reference and explores the features that made it such a widely commended case, aiming to identify the best practice to be followed in other cases. The two main questions that this paper aimed to respond were: Was the success of the renegotiation process in the Fertagus contract due to mode-specific factors? Are those factors (mode specific or not) transferable to other modes under public private partnership (PPP) contracts and if so, to what extent? Regarding the mode specificity and transferability analysis, it can be noticed that much of the features were not mode specific in theory, however for the successful transferability to other transport modes, some changes should be made to the PPP model taking into account modal specificities and national contexts.     

An advanced solution for efficient logistics management at both company and network level

This paper proposes an advanced solution for efficient logistics management in urban areas based on a unified scheme able to address both static and dynamic decision making at a company and network level. The proposed solution generates the most efficient urban distribution plan utilizing an evolutionary metaheuristic approach and a backpressure framework that provide competitive scheduling and routing decisions. An empirical study based on real data is conducted assessing the performance of the proposed advanced solution and the reported results of the evaluation experiments demonstrate its generality and robustness.     

A Step Zero Analysis of the Galapagos Marine Reserve

Contrary to common perceptions, the creation of protected areas does not start when they are officially declared but generally follows a long process. For instance, the Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) was not “born” when it was formally announced on March 18^th 1998, but several decades before that. Through document analysis and key informant interviews, we applied the “step zero” approach to examine what happened prior to the implementation of the GMR. This study reveals that the GMR did not arise from a social and political vacuum; rather, events took place in the distant past, even centuries ago, influenced the reserve's creation and current status. Its establishment was driven by complex geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental factors from both within and outside Galapagos. Additionally, the process of creating the GMR was convoluted, marked by hidden interests and conflictive political agendas that triggered controversies between users. The making of the GMR was also influenced by the interest in promoting “nature-based” tourism, and the regulations that followed had disadvantaged small-scale fishers. This knowledge about the reserve's pre-implementation phase enables a broader understanding of the current challenges facing the performance of the GMR and points to possible governance interventions needed to enhance its sustainability.     

Advancing Knowledge for Use in Coastal and Estuarine Management: Competitive Research in the National Estuarine Research Reserve System

Decades of research has generated new scientific understanding and technologies aimed at better managing environmental change in estuarine and coastal regions. Yet many across the communities of coastal and estuarine research, management, and funding believe that progress has been too slow in applying this research in practice. This essay reviews how the National Estuarine Research Reserve System’s funding program evolved over the past two decades to improve how researchers and users of research work together to increase the uptake of science to achieve resource management and conservation goals. Incremental innovation in the design of the NERRS funding program enabled more intensive and multiway engagement between funders, researchers, and users, which created new pathways for applying science in practice. Furthermore, these interactions stimulate reflection and adaptation within each separate institutional setting, supporting changes that may science to better support environmental problem solving.     

Specification and estimation of a spatially and temporally autocorrelated seemingly unrelated regression model: application to crash rates in China

In transportation studies, variables of interest are often influenced by similar factors and have correlated latent terms (errors). In such cases, a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model is normally used. However, most studies ignore the potential temporal and spatial autocorrelations across observations, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions. In contrast, the SUR model proposed in this study also considers these correlations, making the model more behaviorally convincing and applicable to circumstances where a three-dimensional correlation exists, across time, space, and equations. An example of crash rates in Chinese cities is used. The results show that incorporation of spatial and temporal effects significantly improves the model. Moreover, investment in transportation infrastructure is estimated to have statistically significant effects on reducing severe crash rates, but with an elasticity of only −0.078. It is also observed that, while vehicle ownership is associated with higher per capita crash rates, elasticities for severe and non-severe crashes are just 0.13 and 0.18, respectively; much lower than one. The techniques illustrated in this study should contribute to future studies requiring multiple equations in the presence of temporal and spatial effects.

New appraisal values of travel time saving and reliability in Great Britain

Transportation - This paper provides an overview of the study ‘Provision of market research for value of time savings and reliability’ undertaken by the Arup/ITS Leeds/Accent consortium...