A single-period analysis of a two-echelon inventory system with dependent supply uncertainty

Disruptions and random supplies have been important sources of uncertainty that should be considered in the design and control of supply chains. There have been many real world examples in which a single catastrophic event has simultaneously degraded the capabilities of several suppliers leading to considerable erosion of profits and goodwill for a company. However, the literature on analytical models that account for the dependence nature of disruptions and its impact on supply chain performance is sparse.In this paper, we consider an m-manufacturer, 1-retailer, newsvendor inventory system with stochastically dependent manufacturing capacities, caused by random disruptions that may simultaneously inflict damages to the capacities of the manufacturers. We develop the structural/analytical properties of key performance measures and optimal inventory policies for the multi-source and assembly inventory systems. We show that stochastic dependence in disruptions can have opposite effects on system performance in the multi-source and assembly systems. While risk diversification is preferred in the multi-source system, risk concentration is preferred in the assembly system. Our results also suggest that, if the retailer ignores the effect of dependent disruptions, then in the multi-source structure, it would underestimate the cost, overestimate the fill rate, and order more units than the optimum; however, in the assembly structure, the opposite would happen. We perform a comprehensive numerical study to validate our analytical results and generate useful managerial and operational insights for effective risk management of supply chains in the presence of dependent supply uncertainty.     

Frequency-based transit assignment considering seat capacities

This paper proposes a frequency-based assignment model that considers travellers probability of finding a seat in their perception of route cost and hence also their route choice. The model introduces a “fail-to-sit” probability at boarding points with travel costs based on the likelihood of travelling seated or standing. Priority rules are considered; in particular it is assumed that standing on-board passengers will occupy any available seats of alighting passengers before newly boarding passengers can fill any remaining seats. At the boarding point passengers are assumed to mingle, meaning that FIFO is not observed, as is the case for many crowded bus and metro stops, particularly in European countries. The route choice considers the common lines problem and an user equilibrium solution is sought through a Markov type network loading process and the method of successive averages. The model is first illustrated with a small example network before being applied to the inner zone of London’s underground network. The effect of different values passengers might attach to finding a seat are illustrated. Applications of the model for transit planning as well as for information provision at the journey planner stage are discussed.     

Assessing the cost of transfer inconvenience in public transport systems: A case study of the London Underground

Few studies have adequately assessed the cost of transfers² in public transport systems, or provided useful guidance on transfer improvements, such as where to invest (which facility), how to invest (which aspect), and how much to invest (quantitative justification of the investment). This paper proposes a new method based on path choice,³ taking into account both the operator’s service supply and the customers’ subjective perceptions to assess transfer cost and to identify ways to reduce it. This method evaluates different transfer components (e.g., transfer walking, waiting, and penalty) with distinct policy solutions and differentiates between transfer stations and movements.The method is applied to one of the largest and most complex public transport systems in the world, the London Underground (LUL), with a focus on 17 major transfer stations and 303 transfer movements. This study confirms that transfers pose a significant cost to LUL, and that cost is distributed unevenly across stations and across platforms at a station. Transfer stations are perceived very differently by passengers in terms of their overall cost and composition. The case study suggests that a better understanding of transfer behavior and improvements to the transfer experience could significantly benefit public transport systems.     

基于纸纤维改性的隧道工程透水砂浆性能研究北大核心CSCD

为提出一种适用于隧道初期支护基面找平并且具有一定透水性能的砂浆,将纸纤维加入砂浆试块中对其性能进行改性。通过分析纸纤维的降解原理,并将不同掺量的纸纤维加入砂浆试块中,对其体积密度、吸水率、抗压强度等基本性能指标及微观结构进行测试和分析。由试验结果可知:在碱性环境中,纸纤维具有可降解的性能特点;纸纤维可以使普通砂浆试块的吸水率提升2~3倍,同时也会造成砂浆试块的体积密度和抗压强度降低;对砂浆试块吸水率和抗压强度进行线性拟合后发现其吸水率和抗压强度呈现负相关关系。研究结果表明,通过纸纤维对砂浆进行透水性能的提升是可行的,但是纸纤维掺量对砂浆其他性能的影响还有待进一步研究。     

Experimental research on dynamic vibration absorber with negative stiffness for longitudinal vibration control of propulsion shafting system北大核心CSCD

［Objectives］In order to control the first longitudinal vibration mode of propulsion shafting systems, a dynamic vibration absorber with disc spring negative stiffness is proposed and its experimental verification carried out. ［Methods］A test bench is established for the propulsion shafting system containing a dynamic vibration absorber with negative stiffness. According to the first longitudinal vibration mode of the shafting, a dynamic vibration absorber with negative stiffness integrated into the thrust bearing is developed. Vibration transmission tests under different rotational speeds, static thrusts and negative stiffness are then carried out, and acceleration response data on the thrust bearing foundation and shafting is obtained. ［Results ］ The results show that the developed dynamic vibration absorber with negative stiffness can achieve vibration suppression of 7.8 dB for the thrust bearing foundation in the first longitudinal mode of the propulsion shafting with a mass ratio of 1.6%, and the vibration control effect of the negative stiffness dynamic vibration absorber is maintained at 3.3 dB when the natural frequency changes by 5% and the thrust changes by 40%. The vibration response on the thrust bearing foundation and shafting do not deteriorate even at non-optimal negative stiffness. ［Conclusions］This study shows that a dynamic vibration absorber with negative stiffness can effectively suppress vibration transmission at the first longitudinal mode of a shafting under different rotational speeds. © 2023 Authors. All rights reserved.     

The interaction of tidal advection, diffusion and mussel filtration in a tidal channel

Time series measurements of flow and pigment concentrations (Chl) in the Menai Strait have revealed that the strong residual flow in a tidal channel ( 500 m³ s^− 1) transports phytoplankton from the open sea into the channel where much of it is consumed by suspension feeders, mainly in commercial beds of Mytilus edulis. The progressive depletion of phytoplankton along the channel results in a strong horizontal gradient of plankton and hence Chl. Tidal displacement of this gradient causes large (± 50% of mean) oscillations of Chl in the vicinity of the mussel beds. Vertical mixing by the strong tidal flows is sufficiently vigorous for most of the tidal cycle to ensure that downward diffusion can resupply the near-bed layer although there are indications of some transient depletion around slack water.This paradigm of the interaction of advection, diffusion and filtration determining the distribution of plankton and its supply to mussels has been encapsulated in a series of simple models forced only by boundary values. In the first, a 1-D model of tidal flow in the channel reproduces the principal features of the observed currents including the unusually large spatial change in phase of the currents and the variation of the residual transport with tidal range. The flow field from this physical model is used to drive a second model based on the advection diffusion equation for Chl with a source at the Irish Sea boundary and a sink over the mussel bed. This model illustrates the formation of a strong Chl gradient along the channel and simulates the amplitude and phase of the M₂ oscillations of Chl and the development of the M₄ variation apparent in the observations. This second model has been extended to 2-D over the mussel beds to allow investigation of the effects of water column mixing. The model indicates that only for a short period ( 30 min), close to slack water, is mixing sufficiently reduced to permit the development of a depletion boundary layer and then only within  1 m from the bottom, a result which is consistent with the observations.     

Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

     

Residual life prediction for marine diesel turbocharger based on Wiener process北大核心CSCD

[目的]针对船舶柴油机增压器难以收集到全生命周期性能退化数据的问题,提出一种基于维纳过程的寿命预测模型。[方法]首先,采用K-Means模型对增压器实际运行工况进行聚类,提取出典型工况数据;然后,使用贝叶斯突变点检测模型识别增压器的缺陷点;最后,建立基于维纳过程的退化模型,并以某型船用柴油机增压器为应用对象,预测增压器的剩余使用寿命。[结果]结果显示,基于维纳过程的寿命预测方法能够在不需要同类设备历史退化数据的情况下对增压器的剩余寿命进行预测。[结论]所提方法对缺少故障样本的船舶柴油机增压器寿命预测具有一定的参考价值。     

Wheel-rail contact models for vehicle system dynamics including multi-point contact

Advanced modelling of rail vehicle dynamics requires realistic solutions of contact problems for wheels and rails that are able to describe contact singularities, encountered for wheels and rails. The basic singularities demonstrate themselves as double and multiple contact patches. The solutions of the contact problems have to be known practically in each step of the numerical integration of the differential equations of the model. The existing fast, approximate methods of solution to achieve this goal have been outlined. One way to do this is to replace a multi-point contact by a set of ellipses. The other methods are based on so-called virtual penetration. They allow calculating the non-elliptical, multiple contact patches and creep forces online, during integration of the model. This allows nearly real-time simulations. The methods are valid and applicable for so-called quasi-Hertzian cases, when the contact conditions do not deviate much from the assumptions of the Hertz theory. It is believed that it is worthwhile to use them in other cases too.     

Changes in perceived travel cost and time for the work trip during a period of increasing gasoline costs

This study was designed to examine the relationship between actual and perceived values of cost and time for the work trip and to examine how perceptions have changed over a period of dramatically increased travel costs. Variations in the relationship between perceived and actual values were examined as a function of situational and attitudinal variables. Two telephone surveys were conducted one year apart (Fall 1978 and Fall 1979). On the next working day following a survey, a research assistant recreated the respondent's work trip, recorded time values and used distance measures, car type information and parking costs to compute travel cost. The first survey revealed that most auto users were unable to articulate dollars-and-cents driving costs for the work trip, but auto users in the second survey were able to provide fairly accurate cost estimates. Dramatic changes in fuel prices between surveys is probably the main reason for the change in driving cost awareness. Auto users were also asked to rate relative costs of driving a car compared to using the bus for the work trip. These ratings showed that auto users tended to underestimate driving costs relative to bus costs, but this tendency decreased from the first to the second time period. Commuters in all modal groups at both time periods tended to overestimate travel times. Perception of travel time varied as a function of mode, perceived comfort (for car users), and perceived convenience and number of transfers (for bus users).To whom correspondence should be addressed.