On Grey's critique of generalised cost

It is argued that some of Grey's criticisms (this issue) — including those at the centre of his argument - are based on faulty logic, invalid premises, or lack of clarity about what current practice actually is. An appropriate definition of generalised cost, together with a sensitive disaggregation of major groups of the population, can help to increase the reliability of forecasts and provide a consistent underlying framework for analysis of otherwise disparate projects.Some of Grey's criticisms are more valid, however, and there is a case for some changes in current practice. This can best be done by adapting, rather than abolishing, the tool of generalised cost, since the alternatives available seem even more flawed, in terms of being either arbitrary or inconsistent.The author gratefully acknowledges the help of M. H. Fairhurst and M. G. Langdon, who suggested some of the lines of argument in this paper. Opinions are those of the author, not the Greater London Council.     

A scenario approach to airport evaluation in remote communities: with particular reference to the Pilbara region of Australia

Coordinated development of aviation facilities and services is critical for geographically remote communities. Improvements in aviation capability can be assisted by an analytical base for determining the implications of alternative configurations of air services in terms of links to be served, airport/aerodrome investment, type of flight equipment and flight frequency. We outline a method for identifying airport supply configurations to meet air service demand to and from the Pilbara region of north-west Australia. The approach emphasises minimum levels of demand required from a community in order to justify provision of air services of a given scenario. The method is influenced by the paucity of data on demand in remote communities, and the consequent risk of relying solely on demand-side forecasts of patronage levels. It is therefore particularly useful in assessing transport systems associated with remote resource development projects which are notable for the rapidity of change which they can bring. The approach has relevance to a wide range of transport applications.     

Spatial variation of roadside C2–C6 hydrocarbon concentrations during low wind speeds: Validation of CALINE4 and COPERT III modelling

The CALINE4 model is widely used to predict the effect of vehicle emissions on ambient concentrations close to roadways. It requires an evaluation of the rate at which different air pollutants are emitted by vehicles, taking into account things such as vehicle flow, velocity, type and age. For Europe the databases of the COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) are combined with local vehicle details to obtain site-specific emission factors for dispersion modelling. The ability of CALINE4 to predict the spatial variation of hydrocarbon concentrations downwind of a motorway is assessed, as is the accuracy of COPERT III composite emission factors for several hydrocarbon compounds. The concentrations of seven traffic-associated compounds is found at three locations downwind and upwind of a motorway. Modelled and measured background-corrected downwind concentrations are compared on three bases: daily peak hour concentrations, mean concentrations, and a set of model evaluation parameters.     

Spatial variation of roadside C2–C6 hydrocarbon concentrations during low wind speeds: A note

This Note describes an investigation of spatial variations in the ambient concentrations of hydrocarbons in the vicinity of a suburban motorway during five consecutive weekday morning peak periods of unusually warm and calm conditions. Background-corrected downwind concentrations representing the influence of the motorway source were found to be strongly dependant on wind speed and direction. The ambient ethene-to-acetylene concentration ratio was greatest close to the roadside and the effect of wind speed on the ratio had different average profiles for main wind directions due to different rates of dispersal. Higher values were obtained using background-corrected concentrations.     

Operating costs in Norwegian toll companies: a panel data analysis

The objective of this paper is to ease the planning of new toll projects by providing estimates of operating costs, and to help us make better informed decisions about the design of toll collection systems. To do so we use panel data for Norwegian toll companies to estimate average cost functions. The main results can be summarised as follows. We provide evidence of very important unexploited economies of scale. The estimated cost curves are very steep for traffic levels below the sample mean, and become almost entirely flat over a wide range above the sample mean. A higher share of vehicles using on board units will significantly reduce average costs. Competitive tendering will significantly reduce average operating costs by as much as 25%. Our results also suggest that increased number of lanes, higher debt and passenger charging will increase average operating costs whereas average operating costs are lower for toll cordons compared with other projects.

Consequences of service reduction in municipal transit: San Francisco’s muni

Urban transit in the United States is going through a crisis of rising costs, increasing fares, falling patronage, and concomitant service reductions; typical of the pattern is San Francisco’s Municipal Railway, the agency in charge of all the City’s transit. From a basic fare of 15c in 1969, two increases brought the fare to 25c by 1972, and cut sharply into a previously stable patronage. The “Muni”, in an effort to reduce costs and meet its budgeted deficit, attempted to reduce service by ten to fifteen percent. From an analysis of the data which could be obtained, it appears that neither efficiency not equity in the City would have been served by the proposed cutbacks. The analysis draws from a variety of sources and methods in exploring the interactions within the transportation system and within the city budget.     

WTO与交通企业发展

刘光溪:入世谈判过程本身具有重大意义 入世谈判的过程对于中国经济的发展、中国经济体制改革的深化是一个巨大的教育过程.这次谈判不光是经济和贸易的交锋,还是两种文化、两种理念的碰撞,对中华民族价值取向、理性思维将产生深远的影响.     

Science Needs for Sea-Level Adaptation Planning: Comparisons among Three U.S. Atlantic Coastal Regions

To identify priority information needs for sea-level rise planning, we conducted workshops in Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts in the summer of 2012. Attendees represented professionals from five stakeholder groups: federal and state governments, local governments, universities, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. Over 100 people attended and 96 participated in breakout groups. Text analysis was used to organize and extract most frequently occurring content from 16 total breakout groups. The most frequent key words/phrases were identified among priority topics within five themes: analytic tools, communications, land use, ecosystem management, and economics. Diverse technical and communication tools were identified to help effectively plan for change. In many communities, planning has not formally begun. Attendees sought advanced prediction tools yet simple messaging for decision-makers facing politically challenging planning questions. High frequency key words/phrases involved fine spatial scales and temporal scales of less than 50 years. Many needs involved communications and the phrase “simple messaging” appeared with the highest frequency. There was some evidence of geographic variation among regions. North Carolina breakout groups had a higher frequency of key words/phrases involving land use. The results reflect challenges and tractable opportunities for planning beyond current, geophysically brief, time scales (e.g., election cycles and mortgage periods).     

Lessons Learned from the Marine Management Area Science Program: Insights for Global Conservation Science Programs

Drawing on experiences from the four regions and the overall conduct of the Marine Management Area Science (MMAS) program, this concluding article highlights emergent cross-cutting themes that affected MMAS programs across the regions, summarizes the important conservation outcomes of the MMAS program, and then discusses lessons gained from the actual process of conducting the MMAS program. Based on these insights, particularly the last section, this article concludes with recommendations for other conservation programs, specifically those that are global in scope and are science-based with a specific intent to apply that science to conservation action.