When strike comes to town… anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to a one-day,pre-announced,complete rail strike in the Netherlands

We conducted secondary analysis on data collected among rail users, days before and after a national rail strike in the Netherlands. Our aim was to compare anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to the rail strike, investigate associations with traveller and trip characteristics, and perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative. Forty-four percent of the people who had anticipated to travel by train on the day of the strike abandoned their trip, 24% switched to car as driver, 14% switched to another mode (as passenger), 18% stayed with the train and rescheduled the planned activity to another day. Almost half of people who had anticipated travelling by car expected to change behaviour as well. Multinomial logistic regression showed low preference for car among rail users. Considerable marginal effects were found for several variables, e.g.: young people and females were less likely to switch to car; short and middle distance trips were less likely abandoned or switched to another day; commute and business trips were more likely done by car, and business trips less likely cancelled. Despite high levels of perceived behavioural control and satisfaction with the chosen alternative, permanent modal shift as result of this strike is not expected.     

Ranking of factors contributing to higher performance in the ocean transportation industry: a multi-attribute utility theory approach

Ocean transportation has been mainly studied from an economic and strategic point of view. This paper adopts an operations management approach aiming at the identification of the value-adding attributes that characterize the ocean transportation industry. This is achieved by using Johansson et al.'s 1 four value metrics—service, quality, cost, time—which are used for the identification of the contribution that different factors make to the total created value. In this paper, multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) has been used to measure and compare the value of different processes of various sectors of the ocean transportation industry. The application of MAUT methodology is illustrated with an example from the four sectors of the industry: liner, dry bulk, liquid bulk and specialized. Results suggest that there is strong emphasis placed by ocean transportation companies on quality and that there is differentiating importance put on service and cost by different sectors. Time is seen as the lowest value contributor by all four sectors of the surveyed companies.     

Do observations adequately resolve the natural variability of oceanic turbulence?

Especially in high Reynolds number, naturally-occurring flows, turbulence is a highly variable process. It is challenging to measure yet it is vital that we do so in order to quantify the internal transports of mass, nutrients, energy and momentum. Isolated turbulence profiles are difficult to interpret; systematic sampling and subsequent averaging are necessary. Confidence in our ability to properly sample turbulence arises from intergroup comparisons, comparisons with other methods to assess mixing coefficients and, most fundamentally, the constraints imposed by the governing fluid dynamics on both energy losses via viscous dissipation caused by turbulence and on the mixing that results from turbulence. Several examples in which fluid processes have been isolated from the full range of oceanic motions are reviewed in this light. These examples show how observationally-derived estimates of turbulence dissipation or mixing are consistent with larger scale constraints. The larger oceanographic problem of defining the full geographic variability of mixing remains.     

Enforcement of law by the Port State Control (PSC)

Since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced the Port State Control (PSC) programme in 1982, it has been playing a vital role in the enforcement of safety law at sea worldwide. This paper addresses the effectiveness of PSC and the effectiveness of the methods for selecting ships to be inspected adopted by regional PSC. Data on ship total loss (from 1973-2003) and on the PSC records (from 1994-2005) have been collected. The study reveals that the enforcement of PSC is effective in improving the safety level of maritime transport. The methods adopted by regional PSC are compared on their effectiveness, efficiency and stability in identifying substandard ships. Suggestions are made on the improvement of the enforcement of PSC.     

Recent sedimentary study of the shelf of the Basque country

The Northern Iberian margin of the Spanish Basque country (provinces of Gipuzkoa and Viscaia) is characterized by a narrow continental platform, which receives inputs of riverine particulate matter from the numerous riverine systems located within the Basque country. This particulate matter is subsequently deposited within the Bay of Biscay, and Gouf de Capbreton [Frouin, R., Fiuza, A.F.G., Ambar, I., Boyd, T.J., 1990. Observations of a poleward surface current off the coasts of Portugal and Spain during winter. Journal of Geophysical Research 95 (C1), 679–691]. The main goal of this study is to establish a map of the surface sediment distribution of the Basque continental shelf and more specifically to map the muddy patch located at the eastern side of that continental shelf.Three oceanographic cruises were conducted in 2003 and 2004. From these campaigns 340 surface samples, 12 short cores and 3 gravity cores have been collected over the mid and outer shelf from depths ranging between 50 m and 150 m deep. 3 seismic profiles were obtained across the shelf mud patch using a Sparker device.Sediment grain-size analyses were performed by the classical physical method of sieving and use of settling columns. The POC (Particular Organic Carbon) amounts in sediment and water samples were determined using the Strickland and Parsons' method [Strickland, J.D.H., Parsons, T.R., 1972. Determination of particulate carbon. In : A practical handbook of seawater analysis. Fisheries ResearchBoard of Canada, Ottawa, pp. 207−211] as adapted by Etcheber [Etcheber, H., 1981. Comparaison des diverses méthodes d'évaluation des teneurs en matières en suspension et en carbone organique particulaire des eaux marines du plateau continental aquitain. Journal de Recherche Océanographique VI (2), 37−42]. Radioisotopic measurements (²¹⁰Pb_exc) were made using a semi-planar germanium detector coupled to a multichannel analyser. Radiographical analysis was performed with an X-ray equipment (SCOPIX®) coupled with a radioscopy instrumentation and processing unit.Firstly, a detailed sedimentological map of this shelf has been produced and secondly, geophysical surveys have precisely mapped the geometry of the main mud patch on the continental shelf. In the mud patch itself the rates of sedimentation are between 0.13 and 0.50 cm yr^− 1. The maximum rate of sedimentation is located in the central mud patch, whereas the minimum rate of deposition occurs close to the rocky outcrops. These results seem to be in agreement with the estimation of the total thickness of the mud patch revealed by seismic profiles. The central part corresponds to the maximum thickness of 7 m.Interpretations of the associated oceanic current forcing factors (current direction, wave fetch and wind directional modes) relating to the identified sediment depositional zones are also undertaken.     

基于多目标遗传算法的复式转叶舵机结构优化

针对舰船转叶舵机运动时舵叶与水动力之间存在强力位耦合的问题,设计一种新型复式液压摆动缸转舵机构。为减小结构整体占地面积,基于多目标遗传算法(Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm, MOGA)建立以复式摆动缸壳体内径、力矩解耦缸转子内径、驱动缸转子轮毂直径、动静叶片高度、动静叶片宽度和壳体厚度几何尺寸为设计变量的多目标优化模型。在使用遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm, GA)求解非线性约束条件下的多变量优化问题时,通过设计罚函数,将适应度函数与约束条件分离以处理约束条件,根据设定的准则择优筛选最优尺寸参数。通过有限元软件ANSYS对摆动缸壳体、力矩解耦缸转子和驱动缸转子进行应力应变分析。结果表明,在满足结构强度、刚度和安全因数的前提下,复式摆动缸结构尺寸最优,验证优化后结构的可靠性。     

A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice—whether monitoring the past or planning for the future—a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure.     

12毫米厚铝合金板的搅拌摩擦焊研究(英文)

Most of the investigations regarding friction stir welding(FSW)of aluminum alloy plates have been limited to about 5 to 6mm thick plates.In prior work conducted the various aspects concerning the process parameters and the FSW tool geometry were studied utilizing friction stir welding of 12 mm thick commercial grade aluminum alloy.Two different simple-tomanufacture tool geometries were used.The effect of varying welding parameters and dwell time of FSW tool on mechanical properties and weld quality was examined.It was observed that in order to achieve a defect free welding on such thick aluminum alloy plates,tool having trapezoidal pin geometry was suitable.Adequate tensile strength and ductility can be achieved utilizing a combination of high tool rotational speed of about 2000 r/min and low speed of welding around 28 mm/min.At very low and high dwell time the ductility of welded joints are reduced significantly.     

人机协作系统中车辆轨迹规划与轨迹跟踪控制研究

自动驾驶系统需具备响应驾驶人意图且有效执行驾驶人意图的能力，以解决人机协作系统中存在的人机冲突、人机优势融合等问题。提出决策层“以人为主”、执行层“以机为首”的人机协作关系，构建包含驾驶人意图识别模块、基于意图识别的轨迹规划模块与轨迹跟踪控制模块的人机协作一体化控制系统框架，并重点对轨迹规划模块与轨迹跟踪控制模块开展研究。首先，结合双向长短期记忆神经网络（Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory，Bi-LSTM）与注意力机制模型建立换道轨迹规划模型；在改进人工势场算法中引入模型预测控制并建立避险轨迹规划模型。其次，通过开展驾驶模拟器试验建立换道与避险驾驶行为数据集，为拟人化模型训练和模型参数确定提供支撑。然后，综合考虑车辆状态变量、控制输入与输出以及道路结构参数等约束条件，构建基于最优转向前轮输入的线性时变模型预测轨迹跟踪控制器，实现对规划轨迹的精准跟踪。最后，基于驾驶模拟器搭建人机协作系统硬件在环测试平台，对轨迹规划模块与轨迹跟踪控制模块开展硬件在环测试与验证。结果表明：换道与避险规划轨迹光滑且平稳，轨迹跟踪控制过程中，车辆航向角与前轮转角变化平稳；所构建的轨迹规划与轨迹跟踪控制模块在确保安全性前提下可实现不同场景中的车辆运动控制需求。