The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.     

Interaction study of train-bridge-track systems using Maxwell model

The investigation of problems related to the interaction of train, bridge and track systems has been accelerated by the emergence of high-speed trains. Such studies are required, not only for the endurance issues regarding bridge and tracks, but to assure trains' functionality and performance. The suspension mechanism of train systems is of prime importance in defining the functionality of high-speed trains, and accurate mathematical models of the mechanism are imperative. This paper introduces a numerical technique for an interaction study of train-bridge-track systems based on Maxwell (three-element type) modeling of the suspension mechanisms of vehicles. Track irregularity in sinusoidal form is also integrated into the mathematical model. Although the proposed technique is simple in formulation, it offers phenomenal accuracy in representing the interaction of train, track and bridge systems. In a numerical example, the dynamic behavior of a train-bridge system has been studied. Results of this analysis provide a valuable insight into the contributing roles of different parameters in this subject.     

Course-keeping control of underactuated hovercraft

The course-keeping control of underactuated hovercraft with two aft propellers was considered. The control of the heading error and cross-track error was accomplished by the yaw torque merely in this case. The hovercraft dynamic model is nonlinear and underactuated. At first the Controllability of course-keeping control for hovercraft was proved, then a course-keeping control law was derived that keeps hovercraft heading constant as well as minimizes the lateral movement of hovercraft. The proposed law guarantees heading error and sway error all converge to zero exponentially. Simulation tests were carried out to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control law. For further research, the disturbance influence would be considered in the dynamic equations.     

Surface CO2 measurements in the English Channel and Southern Bight of North Sea using voluntary observing ships

Ships of opportunity have been used to investigate ocean–atmosphere CO₂ fluxes in the English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea. Continuous underway measurements of the fugacity of seawater carbon dioxide (fCO₂^sw), chlorophyll, temperature and salinity have been performed along 26 transects during the spring and autumn periods. The spatial fCO₂^sw distribution along the Channel and Southern Bight is modulated by the photosynthetic activity, temperature changes and water mixing between inputs from the North Atlantic Ocean and riverine discharges. The seasonal variability of fCO₂^sw is assessed and discussed in terms of the biology and temperature effects, these having similar impacts. The variation of fCO₂^sw shows similar interannual patterns, with lower values in spring. The annual average of air–sea CO₂ fluxes places the English Channel as neutral area of CO₂ uptake. The spring and autumn data allow differentiating between distal and proximal continental areas. The Southern Bight shows a tendency towards net CO₂ uptake on the distal continental shelf, whereas the Scheldt and Thames Plumes show a CO₂ source behaviour on the proximal continental shelves.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

An approach to estimating the hull girder response of a ship due to springing

This article describes an estimation method for the hull girder response of a ship due to springing. The linear and nonlinear springing effects on the hull girder are evaluated. Previous studies on the springing response focused mainly on the symmetric response, or vertical response. In this article, however, the springing analysis is extended to asymmetric responses, or horizontal and torsional responses. The Timoshenko beam model was used to calculate the hull girder response and the quadratic strip method was employed to calculate hydrodynamic forces and moments on the hull. To remove irregular frequencies, a rigid lid was adopted on the hull free surface level and hydrodynamic coefficients were interpolated for asymptotic values. Applications to two ships for the symmetric and asymmetric responses were carried out and the effect of springing responses is also discussed.     

Factors influencing support for local transportation sales tax measures

Sales tax measures passed at the local level and dedicated to transportation projects have become increasingly popular in the United States. While revenues from fuel taxes stagnate, growth of local transportation sales taxes (LTSTs), most approved in local elections, has led to a gradual shift of the financial base for transportation projects away from user fees and toward broader-based taxes. In this study, the relationship between voter support and the social, political, and geographic characteristics of the voters is explored. Using precinct-level voting data and census demographic data for three local transportation sales tax elections in Sonoma County, in the San Francisco Metropolitan area of California, regression models were constructed to analyze this relationship. In addition, the relationship between the outcomes of the three measures was explored to better understand which transportation projects might have garnered more support for the successful measure. It was found that the closer voters lived to the transportation projects to be funded, the greater their support. Higher incomes were also positively related to support, controlling for other variables. Political leanings were found to affect support, with the direction of the effect dependent upon the project list in each measure’s expenditure plan. Finally, it appears that the latest measure, which passed successfully, benefited greatly from its multi-modal expenditure plan.     

Multigrid fictitious boundary method for incompressible viscous flows around moving airfoils

In this paper, an efficient multigrid fictitious boundary method (MFBM) coupled with the FEM solver package FEATFLOW was used for the detailed simulation of incompressible viscous flows around one or more moving NACA0012 airfoils. The calculations were carried on a fixed multigrid finite element mesh on which fluid equations were satisfied everywhere, and the airfoils were allowed to move freely through the mesh. The MFBM was employed to treat interactions between the fluid and the airfoils. The motion of the airfoils was modeled by Newton-Euler equations. Numerical results of experiments verify that this method provides an efficient way to simulate incompressible viscous flows around moving airfoils.