Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

Testing the Effects of Constraints on Climate Change–Friendly Behavior among Groups of Australian Residents

This study explores the relationship between Australian's attitudes toward climate change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). We hypothesize that general attitudes toward climate change, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control predict intended and reported behavior, and that attitude negatively influences constraints on adopting ERB. The moderating effect of residential condition (urban vs. rural contexts) was tested across these hypothesized relationships. We randomly selected 200 individuals from eight regions: Five within 50 km of the GBR Coastline and three from the Statistical Metropolitan Areas in Australia. We yielded 1,623 surveys by telephone interviews. Findings confirm our hypotheses and suggest the most important predictor of intentions is perceived behavioral control. The two groups of respondents (urban vs. rural) illustrate different relationships. This study offers insight on how managers of the GBR can effectively shape residents' behavioral tendencies that minimize human impacts on the natural environment.     

天然海水中15CDV6/MDN138及15CDV6/MDN250合金的电流相互作用（英文）

The galvanic corrosion behavior of the metal combinations 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, with 1:1 area ratio, has been studied in natural seawater using the open well facility of CECRI's Offshore Platform at Tuticorin for a year. The open circuit potentials of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 of the individual metal, the galvanic potential and galvanic current of the couples 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, were periodically monitored throughout the study period. The calcareous deposits on MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 were analyzed using XRD. The electrochemical behavior of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 in seawater was studied using an electrochemical work station. The surface characteristics of MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 have been examined with a scanning electron microscope. The results of the study reveal that the galvanic protection offered by15 CDV6 to MDN250 and MDN138 in natural seawater amounts to 93% and 98%, respectively, implying that the galvanic protection offered by 15 CDV6 is continuous and effective, which has been further evinced from the adherent nature of the calcareous deposit film comprising compounds such as CaCO_3(calcite, aragonite, and vaterite), MgCO_3(magnesite),Mg(OH)_2(brucite), and MgO(brucite).     

半约束模型试验--一种验证随浪和斜浪中波浪力计算的手段

本文采用半约束模型试验技术，对一条高速船在规则波中随浪和斜浪工况进行了流体动力系列试验，以探讨航运的安全性，验证作用于船体上波浪力的估算方法。对每次试验，以波动方程的形式采用数值估算方法确定环绕船模的波浪运动的时间历程。并用同样的方法从测量数据中提取垂荡和纵摇与模型测量运动，一阶波导纵荡、横荡作用力和首摇力矩。因此合理比较理论计算的波浪力与力矩的时间历程成为可能。这表明SSPA海事动力学的研究所(MDL)模型试验设施可以提供高质量的测量，与所述计算方法结合起来可用来验证理论计算和建立半经验方法。     

Observations on colony formation by the cosmopolitan phytoplankton genus Phaeocystis

Few marine phytoplankton have heteromorphic life cycles and also often dominate the ecosystems in which they occur. The class Prymnesiophyceae contains a notable exception: the genus Phaeocystis includes three species that form gelatinous colonies but also occur within their ranges as solitary cells. Phaeocystis antarctica and P. pouchetii are exclusively high latitude taxa, and are notable for regionally tremendous blooms of the colony stage. P. globosa occurs circumglobally, yet its colony blooms primarily are confined to colder waters within its range. Three additional species are warm water forms that have been reported only as solitary cells or loose aggregations that bear little resemblance to the organized colonies of the other taxa. Interpretation of existing data indicates that resource availability (light, temperature and nutrients) by itself is not sufficient to explain this distinction between cold-water colony-forming taxa and warm water solitary cell taxa, nor why colony development in P. globosa is essentially a spatially restricted phenomenon within a much broader geographic range. Colony development by P. globosa in situ has been observed at temperatures ≥20 °C, but only rarely and generally under conditions of seasonally or anthropogenically elevated nutrient supply. Data presented here demonstrate colony development at 20–22 °C in natural plankton communities from oligotrophic waters that were pre-screened through 63 μm mesh (i.e. lacking mesozooplankton and large microzooplankton), but not in unscreened communities containing microzooplankton and >63 μm zooplankton. Reduction of colony proliferation at higher temperatures by mesozooplankton grazing remains as an intriguing possibility that is consistent with available evidence to help explain differences in latitudinal extent of in situ colony development. These data are interpreted within a theoretical framework regarding the potential advantages and disadvantages of the two life cycle stages.     

Galvanic corrosion behaviour of HE 20 / MDN 138 & HE 20 / MDN 250 alloys in natural seawater

In view of their excellent mechanical properties, workability and heat treatment characteristics, MDN 138 & MDN 250 have been widely used in missile, rocket and aerospace industries. With light weight and high performance characteristics HE 20 aluminium alloy acts as an important material in defence and aerospace applications. The galvanic corrosion behaviour of the metal combinations HE 20 / MDN 138 and HE 20 / MDN 250, with 1:1 area ratio, has been studied in natural seawater using the open well facility of CECRI’s Offshore Platform at Tuticorin for a year. The open circuit potentials of MDN 138, MDN 250 and HE 20 of the individual metal, the mixed potential and galvanic current of the couples HE 20 / MDN 138 and HE 20 / MDN 250 were periodically monitored throughout the study period. The calcareous deposits on MDN 138 and MDN 250 were analysed using XRD. The results of the study reveal that that HE 20 has offered required amount of protection to MDN 138 & MDN 250.     

Inorganic carbon fluxes through the boundaries of the Greenland Sea Basin based on in situ observations and water transport estimates

A carbon budget for the exchange of total dissolved inorganic carbon C_T between the Greenland Sea and the surrounding seas has been constructed for winter and summer situations. An extensive data set of C_T collected over the years 1994–1997 within the European Sub-polar Ocean Programmes (ESOP1 and ESOP2) are used for the budget calculation. Based on these data, mean values of C_T in eight different boxes representing the inflow and outflow of water through the boundaries of the Greenland Sea Basin are estimated. The obtained values are then combined with simulated water transports taken from the ESOP2 version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The fluxes of inorganic carbon are presented for three layers; a surface mixed layer, an intermediate layer and a deep layer, and the imbalance in the fluxes are attributed to air–sea exchange, biological fixation of inorganic carbon, and sedimentation. The main influx of carbon is found in the surface and the deep layers in the Fram Strait, and in the surface waters of direct Atlantic origin, whereas the main outflux is found in the surface layer over the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone and the Knipovich Ridge, transporting carbon into the Atlantic Ocean via the Denmark Strait and towards the Arctic Ocean via the Norwegian Sea, respectively. The flux calculation indicates that there is a net transport of carbon out of the Greenland Sea during wintertime. In the absence of biological activity, this imbalance is attributed to air sea exchange, and requires an oceanic uptake of CO₂ of 0.024±0.006 Gt C yr⁻¹. The flux calculations from the summer period are complicated by biological fixation of inorganic carbon, and show that data on organic carbon is required in order to estimate the air–sea exchange in the area.     

Identification Methods for Vehicle System Dynamics

The paper presents a survey on parameter identification techniques for complex vehicle models. In order to cope with the complexity of the model, the information on the system available from the equations of motion has to be included in the identification process. Basic methods for the solution of this problem are shown. The application of the approach is demonstrated by identification of the vertical automobile dynamics. It is concluded that the presented techniques will become more important with increasing applications of theoretical modeling in vehicle system dynamics.     

Effects of economic disincentives on private car use

A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of economic disincentives on private car use. Eighty two-adult households who were owners of at least one car were randomly assigned to three experimental groups and one control group. Both experimental and control groups logged their car trips during one week before, one week during, and one week after treatment. The treatment consisted of charging two of the experimental groups approximately 100% of normal cost per kilometer of driving during 2 weeks, and charging the third experimental group this amount per kilometer of driving during 4 weeks. With the purpose of investigating whether deliberate planning increases the effect of economic disincentives, the households in one of the former and in the latter group were asked to fill out a prospective car log for the following week. The control group was not charged or requested to fill out a prospective car log but was in other respects treated in the same way. Analyses of the car logs and odometer readings during and at the end of treatment showed a weak reduction of car use due to the economic disincentives that however were almost completely dependent on planning.