聚焦春运:且听春潮

2006年春运的大幕还没落下。铁道部春运办最新数据显示:春运以来,全国铁路共发送旅客8663.4万人,同比增加566.6万人,增长7.0%;其中,中长途直通旅客3731.3万人,同比增加353.6万人,增长10.5%。一年一度的春运,一次次地见证着铁路人的默默付出,一次次地挑战着铁路运输能力的极限。     

The marine electronic highway in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore—an assessment of costs and key benefits

The Straits of Malacca and Singapore are an important trade route linking the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. They are also rich in resources and support a range of activities that benefit the economies of the littoral states (Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore). This important shipping route is a very congested waterway and the authorities are keen to improve navigation facilities to promote ship safety and reduce the risk of groundings, collisions and accidents. This will also help to protect the marine environment from the effects of pollution and hence reduce its damaging impact on activities related to the Straits, e.g. fisheries and tourism. The Marine Electronic Highway (MEH) is an attempt to bring together maritime safety technologies and environmental management systems. The paper examines the costs of providing such a highway and considers some of the benefits which could accrue from its implementation. The analysis, conducted in the form of a cost-benefit study, clearly shows the economic viability of the scheme.     

A high order linear model for the prediction of internal lee waves at the main sill of the Strait of Gibraltar

A linear theory for the physical fields in the water column under the action of large amplitude internal lee waves at the main sill of the Strait of Gibraltar is developed. The procedure is a combination of the perturbation and normal modes methods in order to study steady resonant conditions. The lowest order linear approach of the methodology resumes the Taylor–Goldstein equation, which can reconstruct the main features of the observed fields but the high order approach gives the finest structure and sometimes the largest contributions. The role of the non-linear terms is investigated up to the second order taking into account the non-linear interactions between modes, leading to an effective reconstruction of the whole water column for the velocity field.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Exact Equations for Tractrix Curves Associated with Vehicle Offtracking

Vehicle offtracking behavior at low speeds is closely approximated by a geometric entity called a tractrix. This paper presents differential equations for generalized coordinates of a planar multibody vehicle model based on tractrix behavior. The equations are exact, can be used with any type of input path, are valid for forward and backward movements, and are much simpler than previously published formulations used to compute transient offtracking. The differential equations can be integrated using conventional numerical integration algorithms to obtain plots of the low-speed tracking performance of articulated vehicles. The equations were formulated symbolically by a computer program used to analyze the kinematic and dynamic behavior of multibody systems. Example numerical results are plotted.     

从京沪高速公路（临沂段）路面大修中谈交通管制

高速公路大、中修过程中大多采用边通车,边维修的方法,因此,大、中修过程中的交通管制就显得尤为重要。以京沪高速公路路面大修(临沂段)施工过程中的交通管制为例,通过对减速距离等参数的分析,得出了交通管制与减速距离的关系,并对京沪高速公路(临沂段)大修中利用中央分隔带紧急开口绕行时交通诱导设施布置方案的安全性进行了分析与探讨。     

阿尔斯通开发的PRIMA 3U15型电力机车

阿尔斯通公司运输部开发了PRIMATM机车系列,其类型满足了运营部门提出的模块化和系列化要求.投放欧洲市场的PRIMA型电力机车既满足了通用性要求,又有助于与公路的经济竞争取得成效.为此,阿尔斯通公司继法国双流制机车后又开发了一种三流制机车,该型机车可用于法国、德国和瑞士之间的跨境运输.文章介绍PRIMATM系列的开发过程以及得到法国国家铁路的订单.详细叙述了PRIMA 3U15型三流制机车,重点是PRIMA电力机车的维修、可靠性和可用性.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.