Geographical variations in hurricane risk and legislative response

Abstract

Risk from the “natural event system”; of hurricanes varies greatly along the U.S. coastline, and so do the property and lives at risk. Damage potential from storm surge in the Miami area is less than a third that of the Tampa area. However, damage potential from winds in the Boston and New York areas exceeds that of either the Miami or Tampa areas. Passage of time since the great hurricane disasters near the turn of the century and improvements in the warning system may make coastal dwellers underestimate the likelihood of a hurricane catastrophe. But population growth near the coast has been more than three times the national average, and 10 of 58 coastal segments 50 miles in width more than doubled in population between 1960 and 1970. Twenty‐two segments increased by more than 25,000 people with six increasing by 150,000. Legislative response to the growing hazard has varied as widely as risk but is not clearly correlated with risk.     

Coastal erosion and sea level rise: Implications for ocean beach and San Francisco's westside transport project

Abstract

One of the consequences of sea level rise resulting from the greenhouse effect is increased coastal erosion. This article discusses a model of erosion that can be used to estimate the response of beaches to sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean Beach, California, with particular attention to the consequences of accelerated erosion for the San Francisco Westside Sewer Transport. Results obtained show that erosion produced by accelerated sea level rise could cause substantial damage to the structure. Large expenditures on beach nourishment will be required to protect the transport and the recreational value of the beach.     

Disused shrimp ponds: Options for redevelopment of mangroves

Associated with the rapid increase in the production of cultured marine shrimp has been large‐scale conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds. Production in many regions has proved to be unsustainable, largely due to inappropriate construction methods, poor environmental conditions, overstocking, and disease. A number of shrimp ponds consequently are unproductive and lie idle. Accurate assessments of pond disuse are difficult to obtain; however, unofficial estimates have suggested that as many as 70% of ponds may be disused after a period in production. Pond construction, shrimp culture, and pond disuse lead to alterations to the physical and chemical properties of soil, hydrological conditions, and the flora and fauna composition of the pond area. The case for restoration, or rehabilitation to a sustainable use, is strong. Consideration must be given to the causes of production failure, the environmental conditions remaining following disuse, the needs and preferences of pond owners and coastal managers, and technical constraints.     

Mesoscale subduction at the Almeria–Oran front: Part 1: Ageostrophic flow

This paper presents a detailed diagnostic analysis of hydrographic and current meter data from three, rapidly repeated, fine-scale surveys of the Almeria–Oran front. Instability of the frontal boundary, between surface waters of Atlantic and Mediterranean origin, is shown to provide a mechanism for significant heat transfer from the surface layers to the deep ocean in winter. The data were collected during the second observational phase of the EU funded OMEGA project on RRS Discovery cruise 224 during December 1996. High resolution hydrographic measurements using the towed undulating CTD vehicle, SeaSoar, traced the subduction of Mediterranean Surface Water across the Almeria–Oran front. This subduction is shown to result from a significant baroclinic component to the instability of the frontal jet. The Q-vector formulation of the omega equation is combined with a scale analysis to quantitatively diagnose vertical transport resulting from mesoscale ageostrophic circulation. The analyses are presented and discussed in the presence of satellite and airborne remotely sensed data; which provide the basis for a thorough and novel approach to the determination of observational error.     

Estimates of vertical mixing during a Lagrangian experiment off the Galician coast

An adjoint 1-D model was used to determine vertical diffusivity coefficients from temperature profiles collected within a filament escaping from the Galician coast following an upwelling event. The optimisation scheme ended with relatively high diffusivity values within the thermocline (9×10⁻⁵ m² s⁻¹). Such high values are relevant for biogeochemical exchanges between surface and deep waters in stratified areas.The optimised values were several orders of magnitude higher than the bulk of diffusivity measurements recorded with a free-falling device; however, the optimisation solution was consistent with the arithmetic mean of the measurements in the thermocline (7.7×10⁻⁵ m² s⁻¹), giving more weight to the few largest values. Below the thermocline, the data assimilation method failed because of the three-dimensional nature of the advective field of the upwelling system. Ignoring this advective forcing in the model led to estimates that were two orders of magnitude too high.The results suggest that turbulent mixing is a random process where a few intense events determine the average mixing that drives the long-term evolution of the water column structure. This statistical property is very important when one wants to use instantaneous diffusivity measurements for modelling purposes.     

The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects

The paper addresses the problem of transport costs and their influence on food prices for South American imports. While transport does not seem to be in the focus of existing analyses, its impact on food prices might be underestimated and even closely linked to the development of commonly mentioned drivers of food prices. Since transport price formation is a function of demand and supply, drivers of food prices are also expected to impact on transport prices. The authors argue that a number of relevant factors that drive transport costs - and in consequence food prices - can be influenced by policy makers. Based on empirical analysis, the authors explain the functioning of the determinants of transport costs in the segment of international shipping, trying to describe their exogenous and endogenous components. These results are discussed in reference to policy development in the region.     

A study of vibration and vibration control of ship structures

This paper examines the vibration characteristics and vibration control of complex ship structures. It is shown that input mobilities of a ship structure at engine supports, due to out-of-plane force or bending moment excitations, are governed by the flexural stiffness of the engine supports. The frequency averaged input mobilities of the ship structure, due to such excitations, can be represented by those of the corresponding infinite beam. The torsional moment input mobility at the engine support can be estimated from the torsional response of the engine bed section under direct excitation. It is found that the inclusion of ship hull and deck plates in the ship structure model has little effect on the frequency-averaged response of the ship structure. This study also shows that vibration propagation in complex ship structures at low frequencies can be attenuated by imposing irregularities to the ring frame locations in ships. Vibration responses of ship structures due to machinery excitations at higher frequencies can be controlled by structural modifications of the local supporting structures such as engine beds in ships.