A fuzzy logic-genetic algorithm approach to modelling public transport users’ risk-taking behaviour

This paper seeks to determine the effects of uncertainty in out-of-vehicle times on route choice. Data were collected at two key interchanges in Auckland, New Zealand. Previous work modelled the data using a manual approach to fuzzy logic. This study extends that work by automating the process through defining a black-box function to match the survey data, then employing a genetic algorithm to fine-tune the fuzzy logic model. Results show that automation and the genetic algorithm improve the model’s capability to more accurately predict ridership. The tuning of the membership functions is conducted twice, first using initial fuzzy rules and again after the fuzzy rules have been adjusted to reduce disparity between the output and survey data. The calibrated membership functions provided for operational (transfer waiting and walking time and delay) and physical attributes (safety and seat availability) can be used by practitioners to determine an estimated ridership.     

EXPRESSION AND SIGNIFICANCE OF MYOFIBROBLAST IN HEALING PROCESS OF BILE DUCT

One of the difficulties of biliary surgery lies inthe treatment of iatrogenic biliary stricture that isexpressed prominently after operation as scar con-tracture and anastomotic stenosis, especiaI1y theanastomotic stenosis at the porta hepatis and thearea above it. ln order to exp1ain the mechansim ofthe formation of iatrogenic biliary stricture, an ani-mal model of trauma--repair of bile duct was madein this experiment and the expression of myofi-broblast (MFB) during the whole process was ob…     

Heterogeneity assumptions in the specification of bargaining models: a study of household level trade-offs between commuting time and salary

With many real world decisions being made in conjunction with other decision makers, or single agent decisions having an influence on other members of the decision maker’s immediate entourage, there is strong interest in studying the relative weight assigned to different agents in such contexts. In the present paper, we focus on the case of one member of a two person household being asked to make choices affecting the travel time and salary of both members. We highlight the presence of significant heterogeneity across individuals not just in their underlying sensitivities, but also in the relative weight they assign to their partner, and show how this weight varies across attributes. This is in contrast to existing work which uses weights assigned to individual agents at the level of the overall utility rather than for individual attributes. We also show clear evidence of a risk of confounding between heterogeneity in marginal sensitivities and heterogeneity in the weights assigned to each member. We show how this can lead to misleading model results, and argue that this may also explain past results showing bargaining or weight parameters outside the usual [0,1] range in more traditional joint decision making contexts. In terms of substantive results, we find that male respondents place more weight on their partner’s travel time, while female respondents place more weight on their partner’s salary.     

双曲抛物面薄壳屋盖的制作与设计

为了方便双曲抛物面薄壳屋盖的制作,采用数学建模的方法对双曲抛物面薄壳屋盖进行理论计算,得到了直母线钢筋数以及直母线钢筋在空间的位置、锚固面方程以及与直母线交点、直母线之间的交点和直母线与锚固面的法线之间夹角的数学表达式。利用Matlab软件经过实例计算验证了其有效性,为今后双曲薄壳屋盖的制作提供了理论依据。     

Sensitivity study on durability variables of marine concrete structures

In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter’s sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick’s 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method (DSA), the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis (PSA), the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.     

船用长轴类大锻件锻造工艺方法研究

为提高长轴类大锻件拔长工艺的效率、降低成本、节约能耗、改善锻件成形质量,根据某船用长轴类大锻件的实际尺寸,结合企业实际锻造及加热设备情况制定了锻造工艺,并基于有限元数值模拟软件DEFORM-3D研究了锻造工艺方法,针对固定上砧宽度而选择宽度相同或宽度更大的下砧,分析了锻件表面温度场、截面应力分布以及锻造力、拔长效率的情况。结果表明,采用等宽(330mm)的上下砧时,锻造效率、温度场分布均优于其它情况,所需的锻造力也较小,有利于实现长轴类大锻件的锻造成形。     

提高土压平衡盾构掘进效率研究

为了在确保工程质量及施工安全的同时,进一步提高盾构掘进施工效率,获取更大的经济效益,根据土压平衡盾构施工特点,从盾构掘进的施工工序进行综合研究,以石家庄地铁1号线一期工程和平医院站-烈士陵园站区间施工为例,确定了影响盾构掘进效率的主要因素,并对掘进影响因素进行分析总结。得出了： 1)盾构掘进时间、管片拼装时间工序较为单一,主要和地质情况和作业人员熟练程度有关; 2)管片吊运下井时间、渣土吊运出井时间、其他外部原因对现场施工的影响等会受施工场地布置影响,在盾构施工前应进行合理的施工场地布置; 3)对盾构、后配套设备维修保养及易损件更换时间、盾构施工测量及移站影响时间的优化,能进一步提升施工效率。     

天津地铁盾构隧道四线交汇掘进数值分析

为解决多条近接隧道施工时后行隧道开挖对先行隧道结构造成的不利影响,以天津地铁5、6号线四线交汇隧道为研究对象,选取典型复杂断面,采用数值软件FLAC3D,模拟富水地层中四线交汇隧道开挖时隧道结构之间的相互影响规律。结果表明： 该复杂断面处,后行隧道施工使先行隧道整体位移具有偏向开挖隧道移动的牵引趋势,且先行下部隧道竖向整体位移较横向整体位移变化更为显著。在渗流作用下,先行下部隧道施工产生的地表沉降量及沉降范围相比后行上部隧道较大,验证了富水地层中渗流作用对土体变形影响程度及范围均远大于开挖应力释放的影响。     

基于两阶段算法的运行图与天窗协同优化

列车运行图铺画与天窗设置存在相互影响,相互制约的耦合关系,为了达到优化列车运行图结构,合理配置铁路运力资源的目的,在分析天窗与列车运行动态影响关系的基础上,以天窗设置对列车运行线铺画影响最小为目标,建立了列车运行图与天窗协同优化的混合整数规划模型. 考虑问题复杂性,设计了包含初步优化和综合优化的两阶段求解算法. 初步优化阶段采用基于专家经验的启发式算法得到列车运行图的大体框架,综合优化阶段利用禁忌搜索算法获取全局最优解. 最后以宝成线（阳平关—成都）为例进行有效性验算. 结果表明,相较于人机交互编制所得运行图,优化得出的运行图中所有客货列车在途经车站的总停留时间降低了6.19%,共减少1 355 min,其中旅客列车和货物列车在站停留时间分别降低了3.08%和7.40%,减少总时间分别为189 min和1 166 min.      

原材料对铁路扣件绝缘轨距块低温性能的影响研究

哈齐高速铁路穿越高寒地区,铁路扣件保持轨距的能力对于运营安全和运营成本非常重要。铁路扣件绝缘轨距块以玻璃纤维(33%含量)增强聚酰胺66体系(PA66-GF33体系)作为原材料,在原材料中添加增韧剂来改善绝缘轨距块低温下的力学性能。本文研究增韧剂(马来酸酐接枝三元乙丙橡胶)含量变化对PA66-GF33体系在常温下力学性能的影响,及其在-30℃和-50℃环境下缺口冲击强度的变化。研究结果表明:原材料中增韧剂含量由3%增加到12%时,缺口冲击强度增大,拉伸强度、弯曲强度和熔融指数降低,扫描电镜分析显示缺口冲击试验的样条断面由脆性断裂逐渐表现为韧性断裂;当增韧剂含量为6%时,PA66-GF33体系同时具有较好的低温韧性和优良的加工性能,选择增韧剂含量为6%的PA66-GF33体系作为绝缘轨距块原材料,采用注塑工艺制备的绝缘轨距块剖面无内部空隙,并且在-45℃环境下冲击强度试验合格。