Assimilation of buoy and satellite data in wave forecasts with integral control variables

The quality of numerical wave forecasts can be improved significantly by assimilating wave observations prior to the forecast. In the present study a technique for such assimilation is developed that exploits (a) the efficiency of a limited number of integral control variables, and (b) the effectiveness of variational (model-consistent) assimilation. The formal procedure is independent of the type of control variables and of the wave model (moreover, no adjoint wave model is required). In the present study, integral control variables are chosen to represent large-scale errors in the driving wind fields and uncertainties in the wave model. The assimilation technique is validated with observations of the ERS-1 satellite altimeter and two waverider buoys in two consecutive storms in the Norwegian Sea. The assimilation of the observations reduced the errors in the forecasted significant wave height at the buoy locations typically from 25% to 12%. For low-frequency waves the effect of the assimilation is similarly significant at one buoy location but marginal at the other buoy location.     

Stochastic modelling of quadratic wave components

This paper deals with stochastic wave models and their influence on wave load modelling of marine structures. The need for more refined theories is underlined for some applications and an entirely new quadratic model for the wave elevation is outlined. Finally, a number of physical phenomena relevant to waves are illustrated which are likely to be important for marine structures and could, in the near future, require ad hoc modelling.     

An operational tanker scheduling optimization system: background, current practice and model formulation

We describe the operational tanker scheduling problem in detail, as it relates to Chevron Shipping Company. We review the literature and current Chevron practice. We develop a model for the scheduling situation, and describe an integer programming formulation for schedule optimization, including the feasible schedule generation process, for a realistic representation of the company scheduling practices.     

Model uncertainty and the management of a system of infrastructure facilities

The network-level infrastructure management problem involves selecting and scheduling maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities on networks of infrastructure facilities so as to maintain the level of service provided by the network in a cost-effective manner. This problem is frequently formulated as a Markov decision problem (MDP) solved via linear programming (LP). The conditions of facilities are represented by elements of discrete condition rating sets, and transition probabilities are employed to describe deterioration processes. Epistemic and parametric uncertainties not considered within the standard MDP/LP framework are associated with the transition probabilities used in infrastructure management optimization routines. This paper contrasts the expected costs incurred when model uncertainty is ignored with those incurred when this uncertainty is explicitly considered using robust optimization. A case study involving a network-level pavement management MDP/LP problem demonstrates how explicitly considering uncertainty may limit worst-case MR&R expenditures. The methods and results can also be used to identify the costs of uncertainty in transition probability matrices used in infrastructure management systems.     

A 2D long term advection—dispersion model for the Channel and southern North Sea Part B: Transit time and transfer function from Cap de La Hague

A 2D advection-dispersion model, already described and validated, has been used to provide information about water trajectories, transit times, transfer factors and transfer functions in the Channel and North Sea, south of 57 ° N.It shows that a fast vein of water moves parallel to the coast and reaches the northern limit of the model in one year. Along the coast, a few dozen kilometers from this vein, transit times increase by 2–4 months.Tidal gyres in the Channel recirculate waters and dissolved elements for about 2 yr, and in all it generally takes 3 yr for a specific discharge made at La Hague to completely leave the area under study.The transfer factor was depicted and found to be of the order of 10⁻⁵ m.k.s.One utilization of the transfer function could be to predict the future evolution of water content in the months and years following a discharge in these coastal waters.     

Marketing the professional ship management service

This article aims to apply the relationship marketing concept in a professional ship management context. The dramatic growth in the ship management industry means that companies are increasingly seeking ways of ensuring competitiveness. Efforts have mainly concentrated on the improvement of the quality of the service, market entry strategies, establishment in strategic locations, and promotion. Nevertheless, it is argued that in the professional service context of ship management, the aspect of building and maintaining client relationships is of utmost importance. The building of client relationships will require investments of an economic and social nature, training of personnel and the consideration of marketing as a strategic issue. Ship management companies that build long-term client relationships will ensure client retention, reduce transaction costs and achieve differentiation and competitiveness.     

Scale and rationalization in container shipping

Return to scale are important in container shipping: service operators are continuing to increase the size of their vessels. Mr Seok-Min Lim's article 'Economies of container ship size' (Maritime pollicy and Management,21(2) pages 149-160, 1994) uses a sample of transPacific voyages to evaluate the effect of vessel scale on revenue and cost.Although the results are inconclusive,his study is of value in drawing attention to the revenue-side problems of large containerships. More data need to be collected before the effects of topping up with low-rated cargo on unit revenue retention can be assessed. Meanwhile the pursuit of scale aggravates over-tonnaging. The required response is further rationalization, through the medium of the conferences and the container consortia. In Europe both are under political attack. Operators need to convince the authorities of the soundness of the soundness of their case for adapting these institutions to the neeeds of times.Otherwise the scramble for scale could spell disaster.     

Flange Force Effects on the Motion of a Train Wheelset

The motion of a train wheelset is investigated using Hopf bifurcation theory. The method takes full account of the nonlinear effects of the flange-rail contact forces which are incorporated in the model; The numerical solution is obtained over a wide range of forward speeds by transforming the bifurcation problem into a regular nonlinear boundary value problem, which is solved by standard methods. This solution is shown to be orbitally, asymptotically stable. The algorithm supplies complete information on the lateral and yaw motions and on the period of oscillation, even for very high forward speeds.