Short Sea Shipping’s Green Label at Risk

Abstract

Shifting cargo from land‐based modes to maritime transport has been a prioritized policy in many policy papers to make transport more environmental friendly. Traditional calculations of emissions per transport capacity unit have supported this. However, maritime transport may stand to loose its good environmental reputation in comparison to road transport due to (1) the sluggish processes in maritime environmental policies and the low ambition level of current regulations, (2) the much higher focus on improving the environmental efficiency of the road haulage industry, (3) the much longer economic life of vessels compared to trucks, and (4) focus on faster vessels that increase the average fuel consumption of the sea transport alternative. Through a realistic case study, the energy efficiency and emissions of alternative multimodal transport chains is presented to illustrate these points.     

An adaptive neural network-fuzzy linear regression approach for improved car ownership estimation and forecasting in complex and uncertain environments: the case of Iran

This paper applies a novel adaptive approach consisting of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) to improve car ownership forecasting in complex, ambiguous, and uncertain environments. This integrated approach is applied to forecast car ownership in Iran from 1930 to 2007. In this study, the level of car ownership is viewed as the result of demographic, politico-social, and urban structure factors including average family size, total population density, urban population density, urbanization rate, gross national product per capita, gasoline price, and total road length. To capture the potential complexity, uncertainty, and linearity relation between the car ownership function and its determinants, ANN and FLR (including eight well-known FLR) approaches are applied to the collected data. Next, the preferred ANN is selected based on sensitivity analysis results for the test data while the preferred FLR is identified with regard to ANOVA and MAPE results. The results obtained from the performance comparison demonstrate the considerable superiority of the preferred ANN over the preferred FLR regarding the nonlinear and complex nature of the car ownership function in Iran. This is the first study that presents an ANN-FLR approach for car ownership forecasting capable of handling complexity and non-linearity, uncertainty, pre-processing, and post-processing.     

Modeling residential sorting effects to understand the impact of the built environment on commute mode choice

This paper presents an examination of the significance of residential sorting or self selection effects in understanding the impacts of the built environment on travel choices. Land use and transportation system attributes are often treated as exogenous variables in models of travel behavior. Such models ignore the potential self selection processes that may be at play wherein households and individuals choose to locate in areas or built environments that are consistent with their lifestyle and transportation preferences, attitudes, and values. In this paper, a simultaneous model of residential location choice and commute mode choice that accounts for both observed and unobserved taste variations that may contribute to residential self selection is estimated on a survey sample extracted from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area household travel survey. Model results show that both observed and unobserved residential self selection effects do exist; however, even after accounting for these effects, it is found that built environment attributes can indeed significantly impact commute mode choice behavior. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the model findings for policy planning.

Optimizing the shape of a bumper beam section considering pedestrian protection

This paper presents a design technique to optimize the shape of a vehicle bumper beam that satisfies both the safety requirements for a front rigid-wall impact and the regulations protecting pedestrians from lower leg injuries caused by bumper impacts. An intermediate response surface modeling (IRSM) technique was introduced to approximate the non-linear force-displacement curves obtained from the front impact analysis of a vehicle bumper. The accuracy of the IRSM model was tested by comparing its results with those of the non-linear finite element analysis. The maximum displacement error between the two models did not exceed 3%. Using pedestrian impact analyses based on the experimental arrangement of the Plackett-Burman design, the approximate functions describing the response values acting on the lower legs were calculated. The shape of the bumper beam was optimized by integrating the IRSM with the force-displacement model and the approximate functions on lower leg impact. The optimization results satisfied safety regulations on the maximum allowable displacement of the vehicle bumper, and also the regulations protecting pedestrians from lower leg injuries caused by bumper impacts.     

Analytical study to estimate the performance of the Power Shift Drive (PSD) Axle for a forklift

In this study, a new concept for a power delivery system is developed. Power Shift Drive (PSD) Axle vehicle modeling and dynamic movement analysis are performed via simulation. The dynamic vehicle model is constructed from data obtained from the derived equation, considering the specific characteristics of each part. The model is composed of a torque converter, a gear box, a differential, hub reduction and an engine, which is the power source of the 1st forward and reverse PSD-Axle. By unifying the mathematical equations for each component, a mathematical model of the 1st forward gear is derived. The system dynamic model is created using MATLAB/Simulink based on the mathematical model. Simulation is carried out using Simulink to estimate the dynamic behavior of the PSD-Axle. In addition, the dynamo test result is used to verify the model. Finally, a successful model is created. This study will be used to establish the basic conceptual design for the PSD-Axle multi-gear system.     

License plate location method unaffected by variation in size and aspect ratio

License plate location is a challenging task that is necessary for automatic vehicle identification. This paper presents a new method for locating a license plate when its size and aspect ratio are highly variable. The proposed method begins with an assumption that a license plate exists in a region where dense edges are located. We define an edge region as an area containing rich edges. The edge regions are created by dilating vertical edges, and they are classified into one of four types: left fragment type, right fragment type, whole type, and undefined type. The candidates for a license plate region are constructed by merging edge regions. Knowing what type of edge region is being examined is useful in the merging process. Finally, we verify whether each candidate contains a license plate or not by using the character arrangement information. The arrangement pattern is determined by the size of connected components and by the vertical overlap or horizontal distance between two neighboring components. Experimental results show that the proposed method gives robust results regardless of any variation in the size and aspect ratio of license plates.     

基于安全可靠性的多类用户交通分配模型

为探究出行安全对用户出行选择行为的影响,提出了考虑事故风险成本和旅行时间的多类用户交通分配模型。针对事故发生的随机性特征,定义了路径出行安全可靠性概念,并以此计算用户的事故风险成本预算,体现出行者的安全偏好。基于考虑事故机会和事故风险的基础事故预测模型,针对路段和交叉口的不同特征,分别定义了路段和交叉口的事故风险成本分布。构建的交叉口事故风险成本模型,体现了交叉口不同转向的事故风险成本的差异性。为了求解基于安全可靠性的多类用户交通分配模型,采用路径配流法和相继平均法设计了相应的求解算法,并通过算例分析了模型和算法的有效性。研究结果表明：安全可靠性在用户出行选择中具有重要影响。当在广义出行费用中考虑事故风险成本时,出行者会更多地选择事故风险成本较小的路径;不同风险倾向的用户会有不同的选择特征,保守型出行者倾向于选择路径事故风险成本标准差相对较小的路径,即事故风险成本波动小的路径,而中立型出行者倾向于选择事故风险成本均值相对较低的路径;考虑交叉口的事故风险成本与否会直接影响流量分配结果,即路径交叉口数量和转向的差异性同样会影响出行者的选择。所提出的模型对于客流预测和网络安全评价与管理具有潜在的应用价值。     

机械电子技术在未来铁道车辆中的应用与发展(待续)

全面介绍了机械电子技术在未来铁道车辆特别是悬挂系统、牵引系统和制动系统中的应用和发展。     

Marine Protected Area Management Effectiveness: Progress and Lessons in the Philippines

Quantifying progress in management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is crucial to marine conservation and fisheries management in the Philippines. This study compiles data on the status, occurrence, and management gaps of MPAs through coordination with multiple organizations supporting and guiding MPAs in the Philippines. MPA management effectiveness was measured using a MPA Rating System. Since 2002 the modal MPA rating levels increased from level 1 (initiated) to level 4 (sustained) in 2008/9. This upward trend is attributed to factors that promoted both the establishment and improved management of MPAs. Analysis indicated that: (1) most MPAs struggle with budgetary constraints or lack of sustainable financing and (2) overall the MPAs are being maintained and progressing with notable improvement in management despite a range of difficulties encountered during the implementation process. For MPAs in the Visayan Region for which biophysical data were available, the MPA Rating System was used to assess the effectiveness of local government capacity building on MPA coral reef health. Our results suggest that MPAs with higher ratings are likely to have better reef health conditions.