Ram M. Pendyala  Lidia P. Kostyniuk  Konstadinos G. Goulias 《Transportation》1995,22(2):165-184

This paper studies changes in the relationship between household car ownership and income by household type. Ordered response probit models of car ownership are estimated for a sample of households repeatedly at six time points to track the evolution of income elasticities of car ownership over time. Elasticities of car ownership are found to change over time, questioning the existence of a unique equilibrium point between demand and supply that is implicitly assumed in traditional cross-sectional discrete choice car ownership models. Moreover, different household types and households that underwent household type transitions showed differing patterns of change in elasticities. Observed trends in car ownership and income clearly show behavioral asymmetry where the elasticity of procuring an additional car is greater than that of disposing a car. This too shows the inadequacy of traditional cross-sectional models of car ownership which tend to predict symmetry in behavior. The study suggests the importance of incorporating dynamic trends into the forecasting process, which can be accomplished through the use of longitudinal data.  相似文献   

    

Chris M.J. Tampère  Ruben CorthoutDirk Cattrysse  Lambertus H. Immers 《Transportation Research Part B: Methodological》2011,45(1):289-309

Node models for macroscopic simulation have attracted relatively little attention in the literature. Nevertheless, in dynamic network loading (DNL) models for congested road networks, node models are as important as the extensively studied link models. This paper provides an overview of macroscopic node models found in the literature, explaining both their contributions and shortcomings. A formulation defining a generic class of first order macroscopic node models is presented, satisfying a list of requirements necessary to produce node models with realistic, consistent results. Defining a specific node model instance of this class requires the specification of a supply constraint interaction rule and (optionally) node supply constraints. Following this theoretical discussion, specific macroscopic node model instances for unsignalized and signalized intersections are proposed. These models apply an oriented capacity proportional distribution of the available supply over the incoming links of a node. A computationally efficient algorithm to solve the node models exactly is included.  相似文献   

    

R. Smith  M. Morison  D. Capelle  C. Christie  D. Blair 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2011,16(8):614-618

Using the WPG03 duty cycle developed from global positioning data collected in Winnipeg, Canada, real world energy demands and costs are modeled. Three types of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, four temperatures and two charging scenarios are compared to a vehicle with an internal combustion engine. Cold temperatures are shown to greatly affect vehicle operation energy costs, which is an important consideration for cold weather cities such as Winnipeg. The largest energy cost savings are obtained for smaller-battery plug-in hybrids that had the opportunity to charge during the day.  相似文献   

    

J. M. S. J. Bandara  I. A. B. Ekanayake 《先进运输杂志》2003,37(2):211-230

This paper presents an attempt made to facilitate re‐scheduling of trains to minimize operational delays and accommodate uniform headways for off peak sub urban services subject to resource constraints such as locomotive availability, poor track conditions and stations without siding facilities. The paper describes the computer simulation model designed to optimize train schedules on single‐track rail lines. Using this simulation program it is possible to plan and optimize timetables for railway networks with train runs within short time periods for both single track and double track conditions. The paper describes the capabilities of presenting the results of the simulation runs. These include the time‐distance graph, the network with train movements, dialog boxes with information about selected trains. The programme is capable of changing the starting point, departure time, train destinations and adding or deleting a stop etc. from the user interface. Four objects of array variables are used in the simulation process to keep train and station data. Two object arrays are used for the train movements in up and down directions. The stations' data are stored in the other two object arrays. One of these arrays of stations contains all the stations of the line while the other one contains only the stations with siding facilities. A case study that covers a 61 km long single‐track line with 14 stations is presented to highlight the model capabilities.  相似文献   

    

M. S. Han  S. O. Bang  J. U. Cho  S. Lee  C. Cho 《International Journal of Automotive Technology》2013,14(1):61-66

The need for composites has been increasing in various industries because composites have good mechanical properties for their weight and superior stiffness and strength. The composites addressed in this study were multi-pore aluminum foam with a specific gravity of 1/10 composed of solid aluminum metal. This composite has excellent impact energy-absorption capability. In this study, impact tests on an aluminum foam core sandwich composite with a porous core were conducted to examine its mechanical properties. The specimen was a sandwich structure with an aluminum foam core, and different impact energies, such as 50J, 70J, and 100J, were applied to the specimen. Consequently, a maximum load of 5.5 kN occurred when the striker penetrated the upper face sheet in all experiments. The maximum load occurred at 4.2 ms for 50J, 3.5 ms for 70J, and 3.0 ms for 100J, indicating that the greater the impact energy was, the shorter the time was until the maximum load. After the maximum load occurred, that is, after the penetration of the upper face sheet, the striker penetrated 10 mm further, causing the core to be damaged in the 50J test, while the lower face sheet remained intact. In the 70J test, the striker penetrated the core and caused damage to the upper face sheet at 10 ms. Finally, in the 100J test, the striker penetrated both the upper face sheet and core and even the lower face sheet at 10 ms. Given the result above, the maximum load occurred when the striker penetrated the upper face sheet and the sandwich composite with aluminum foam core; the load then gradually decreased and then rapidly increased when the striker reached the lower face sheet, and the maximum load lasted slightly longer than the time required for the upper face sheet to be penetrated.  相似文献   

    

S. Mansor  M. A. Passmore 《International Journal of Automotive Technology》2013,14(5):701-706

It is important to know the effect of the aerodynamic forces and moments on driving stability because it is responsible for the excitation and influences the response of the vehicle. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of rear slant angle of a surface vehicle on crosswind sensitivity for stability analysis. The vehicle mathematical model used to conduct a dynamic simulation was based on a simple reduced order lateral dynamics of sideslip and yaw rate motion coupled with aerodynamics model. The intention here is to compare the effect of rear slant angles response to crosswind and to rank the crosswind sensitivity ratings. The aerodynamic loads are defined as the function of the aerodynamic derivatives from the static wind tunnel tests. Result shows a 20° rear slant angle demonstrates the highest rating of crosswind sensitivity, while zero degree slant exhibits the least.  相似文献   

    

Samuel M. Vance  Arif S. Malik 《先进运输杂志》2015,49(7):829-854

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

    

Andrew T. Collins  John M. Rose  Stephane Hess 《Transportation》2012,39(1):55-79

Stated preference (SP) experiments are becoming an increasingly popular survey methodology for investigating travel behaviour. Nevertheless, some evidence suggests that SP experiments do not mirror decisions in real markets. With an increasing number of real world decisions made using the internet, an opportunity exists to improve the realism of the SP counterparts of such choices by aligning the choice environment with such online portals. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of such an approach in the context of air travel surveys. Our survey is modelled on the interface and functionality of an online travel agent (OTA). As with a real OTA, many ticket options are presented. Sort tools allow the options to be reordered, search tools allow options to be removed from consideration, and a further tool allows attributes to be hidden and shown. Extensive use of these tools is made by the 462 respondents. A traditional SP component was also completed by the respondents. Our exploratory analysis as well as random utility model estimation results confirm not only that respondents seem to engage more actively with the interactive survey, but also that the resulting data allows for better performance in model estimation compared to a more conventional SP experiment. These results have implications for the study of other complex travel choices where interactive surveys may similarly be preferable to standard approaches.  相似文献   

    

Khandker M. Nurul Habib  Md Tazul Islam 《先进运输杂志》2012,46(1):26-38

Carsharing is an innovative travel alternative that has recently experienced considerable growth and become part of sustainable transportation initiatives. Although carsharing is becoming increasingly a popular alternative transportation mode in North America, it is still an under‐researched area. Current research is aimed at better understanding of the behavior of carsharing users. For every member, a two‐stage approach microsimulates the probability of being active in any month using a binary probit model and given that a particular member is active during a month, the probability of that member using the service multiple times using a random utility‐based model. The model is estimated using empirical data from one of the largest carsharing companies in North America. The model estimates reveal that the activity persistency of members is positively linked to previous behaviors for up to 4 months, and that the influence of previous months weakens over time. It also shows that some attributes of the traveler (gender, age, and language spoken at home) impact his or her behaviors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

    

Wael K.M. Alhajyaseen  Miho Asano  Hideki Nakamura 《国际交通安全学会研究报告》2012

Improving pedestrian safety at intersections remains a critical issue. Although several types of safety countermeasures, such as reforming intersection layouts, have been implemented, methods have not yet been established to quantitatively evaluate the effects of these countermeasures before installation. One of the main issues in pedestrian safety is conflicts with turning vehicles. This study aims to develop an integrated model to represent the variations in the maneuvers of left-turners (left-hand traffic) at signalized intersections that dynamically considers the vehicle reaction to intersection geometry and crossing pedestrians. The proposed method consists of four empirically developed stochastic sub-models, including a path model, free-flow speed profile model, lag/gap acceptance model, and stopping/clearing speed profile model. Since safety assessment is the main objective driving the development of the proposed model, this study uses post-encroachment time (PET) and vehicle speed at the crosswalk as validation parameters. Preliminary validation results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation show that the proposed integrated model can realistically represent the variations in vehicle maneuvers as well as the distribution of PET and vehicle speeds at the crosswalk.  相似文献