Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

Hydrographic cruises off northwest Africa: the Canary Current and the Cape Ghir region

We present hydrographic data for several sections located along the African coastline and off Cape Ghir, carried out at times of weak surface winds (October 1995 and September 1997). The main sections are near the continental slope, at mean distances between 100 and 150 km from the coastline. North of Cape Ghir (31°N) the geostrophic transport (referenced to 650 m) of North Atlantic Central Water through these sections is 3.7 and 2.0 Sv for 1995 and 1997, respectively. This confirms that a major fraction of the water transport by the Canary Current flows east, into the continental slope off northwest Africa, at latitudes above Cape Ghir. Most of this flow continues south past Cape Ghir, along the coast and probably through the eastern passages of the Canary Archipelago. A significant fraction, however, may escape through surface Ekman transport (0.3–0.5 Sv during the early fall season) and by offshore flow at Cape Ghir (1.1 Sv in September 1997, referenced to 650 m). Despite the weak winds the Cape Ghir filament was clearly visible, characterized by localized coastal upwelling associated to a cyclonic shallow structure and cold (and fresh) waters stretching offshore as a very shallow feature (50–100 m deep). The satellite images show that the surface temperature field is highly variable, in rapid response to the surface winds, always with a core region of relatively cold water and commonly with one or two associated eddies. Our results support the existence of two recirculation cells in the area: a horizontal one that connects the interior eastern boundary currents with the coastal region and a vertical one related to both wind-induced and filament upwelling. The data also show a salinity subsurface maximum at the root of the filament, linked to water inflow from northern latitudes, and a subsurface anticyclonic eddy over the Agadir canyon, likely related to the poleward slope undercurrent.     

生物法处理生活污水脱氮除磷效果分析

通过对铁道部无锡干部培训基地（以下简称培训基地）的生活污水的生物法处理效果观察，探析兼氧／好氧生物处理系统的脱氮除磷原理并对影响处理效果因素进行分析。     

Generation of cyclonic eddies in the Eastern Gotland Basin of the Baltic Sea following dense water inflows: numerical experiments

A sigma (σ)-coordinate ocean model by Blumberg and Mellor (POM) is applied to study the formation processes of mesoscale cyclones observed in the Eastern Gotland Basin following the dense water inflows. The initial conditions simulate a situation when the Arkona and Bornholm basins and partially the Slupsk Furrow are already filled with the inflow water of the North Sea origin, while the Eastern Gotland and Gdansk basins still contain the old water of pre-inflow stratification. Model runs with constant and time-dependent winds, changing the buoyancy forcing, grid geometry and bottom topography display the following. Entering the Eastern Gotland Basin from the Slupsk Furrow, the bottom intrusion of saline inflow water splits in two: one goes northeast towards the Gotland Deep, and second moves southeast towards the Gulf of Gdansk. An intensive mesoscale cyclonic eddy carrying the inflow water is generated just east of the Slupsk Furrow with the inflow pulse. A number of smaller cyclones with boluses of the inflow water are formed in the permanent halocline along the saline intrusion pathway to the Gotland Deep. Following Spall and Price [J. Phys. Oceanogr. 28 (1998) 1598], the cyclones are suggested to form by the adjustment of the high potential vorticity inflow water column to a low potential vorticity environment.     

Fleet deployment optimization for liner shipping Part 1. Background, problem formulation and solution approaches

The background and the literature in liner fleet scheduling is reviewed and the objectives and assumptions of our approach are explained. We develop a detailed and realistic model for the estimation of the operating costs of liner ships on various routes, and present a linear programming formulation for the liner fleet deployment problem. Independent approaches for fixing both the service frequencies in the different routes and the speeds of the ships, are presented.     

Auto-ignition and micro-explosion behaviors of droplet arrays of water-in-fuel emulsion

The characteristics of auto-ignition and micro-explosion behaviors of one-dimensional arrays of fuel droplets suspended in a chamber with high surrounding temperature were investigated experimentally with various droplet spacings, numbers of droplet and surrounding temperatures. The fuels used were pure n-decane and emulsified n-decane with varied water contents ranging from 10 to 30%. All experiments were performed under atmospheric conditions with high surrounding temperatures. An imaging technique using a high-speed camera was adopted to measure ignition delay, flame lifetime, and flame spread speed. The camera was also used to observe micro-explosion behaviors. As the droplet array spacing increased, the ignition delay also increased, regardless of water content. However, the lifetime of the droplet array decreased as the droplet spacing increased. The micro-explosion starting time remained unchanged regardless of the number of the droplets or the droplet spacing; however, it tended to be delayed slightly as the water percentage and droplet spacing increased.     

Effect on friction of engine oil seal with engine oil viscosity

Low viscosity engine oil can improve a vehicle’s fuel economy by decreasing the friction between the engine components. Frictional torque varies with the velocity change due to different viscosity characteristics of SAE grade 5W-20, 5W-30 and 5W-40 engine oils. The viscosity for each of these grades was measured to outline the effect low viscosity engine oils have on engine friction, which may lead to improved fuel economy. Engine oil seal frictional torque increases with the shaft rotational speed for all three engine oil grades. A decrease in engine oil seal frictional torque was confirmed when low viscosity engine oil was used. Also, the leak-free performance of the engine oil with the seal satisfied the life limit durability test criteria. Thus, low viscosity engine oil may be used to improve fuel economy by decreasing the frictional loss of the engine oil seal while having no negative impact on performance due to leak-free functioning.     

Desired yaw rate and steering control method during cornering for a six-wheeled vehicle

This paper proposes a steering control method based on optimal control theory to improve the maneuverability of a six-wheeled vehicle during cornering. The six-wheeled vehicle is believed to have better performance than a four-wheeled vehicle in terms of its capability for crossing obstacles, off-road maneuvering and fail-safe handling when one or two of the tires are punctured. Although many methods to improve the four-wheeled vehicle’s lateral stability have been studied and developed, there have only been a few studies on the six-wheeled vehicle’s lateral stability. Some studies of the six-wheeled vehicle have been reported recently, but they are related to the desired yaw rate of a four-wheeled vehicle to control the six-wheeled vehicle’s maneuvering during corning. In this paper, the sideslip angle and yaw rate are controlled to improve the maneuverability during cornering by independent control of the steering angles of the six wheels. The desired yaw rate that is suitable for a six-wheeled vehicle is proposed as a control target. In addition, a scaled-down vehicle with six drive motors and six steering motors that can be controlled independently is designed. The performance of the proposed control methods is verified using a full model vehicle simulation and scaled-down vehicle experiment.     

Effect of fuel stratification on initial flame development: Part 2-low swirl condition

This paper is the second invstigation on the effect of fuel stratification on flame propagation. In the previous work, the characteristics under the no port-generated swirl condition, i.e., the conventional case was studied. In this work, the flame development under the low swirl condition was considered. For this purpose, the initial flame development and propagation were visualized under different axially stratified states in a modified optical single cylinder SI engine. The images were captured by an intensified CCD camera through the quartz window mounted in the piston. Stratification was controlled by the combination of the port swirl ratio and injection timing. These were averaged and processed to characterize the flame propagation. The flame stability was estimated by the weighted average of flame area and luminosity. The stability was also evaluated through the standard deviation of flame area and propagation distance and through the mean absolute deviation of the propagating direction. The results show that the flame-flow interaction determines the direction of flame propagation and that the governing roles of the two factors vary according to the stratified state and the location in the cylinder. In addition, the flame development and the initial flame stability are strongly dependent on the stratified conditions, and the initial flame stability is closely related to the engine stability and lean misfire limit. Lastly, there is no essential difference in gasoline and CNG flame propagation characteristics.