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101.
Abstract Road congestion remains a serious problem, despite all the efforts to limit road use and to manage growing road traffic volumes. Economic approaches (such as pricing) are introduced based on traditional welfare economic theory. Although they are sometimes very successful, the magnitude of traffic issues also requires alternative and unconventional approaches. Perhaps a more innovative perspective is needed. The paper discusses an alternative economic approach starting from property rights theory. It is translated in transport systems in concepts of infrastructure capacity slot management, where slots are dynamically priced and exclusively allocated to individual users. Debates and practices regarding this approach in air traffic and rail traffic are further developed than in the field of road traffic. The paper aims to explore the potential benefits and disadvantages of the property rights approach for road traffic. Attention is paid to major institutional and technical conditions. The conclusion is that the approach theoretically has clear advantages and seems technologically feasible. Nevertheless, serious political and institutional issues have to be solved first. 相似文献
102.
Social Impacts of Transport: Literature Review and the State of the Practice of Transport Appraisal in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract Transport appraisals in European countries increasingly address three dimensions of sustainability—economic, ecological and social. However, social impacts of transport have been underexposed in (ex‐ante) transport project appraisal, at least in the Netherlands. Firstly, this article presents a theoretical framework describing the relationships between determinants of social impacts of transport; it also provides a definition and categorization of those impacts. Secondly, the article reviews the state of the practice of national transport project appraisal in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The article shows that social impacts of transport investments can take on many forms and their levels of importance may vary widely, in project appraisal. The UK transport appraisal guidance includes a spectrum of social impacts through quantitative and qualitative assessments that is broader than the Dutch appraisal guidance. However, it does not cover the full range as identified in the literature. This holds, in particular, for the temporary impacts of transport investments, health impacts, social cohesion, the distribution and accumulation of impacts across population groups and social justice. All in all, it can be concluded that there is a long way to go before social impacts of transport projects are completely included in appraisals, in a way that allows us to compare them to economic and ecological effects. 相似文献
103.
The rationale for congestion charges is that by internalising the marginal external congestion cost, they restore efficiency in the transport market. In the canonical model underlying this view, congestion is a static phenomenon, users are taken to be homogenous, there is no travel time risk, and a highly stylised model of congestion is used. The simple analysis also ignores that real pricing schemes are only rough approximations to ideal systems and that inefficiencies in related markets potentially affect the case for congestion charges. The canonical model tends to understate the marginal external congestion cost because it ignores user heterogeneity and trip timing inefficiencies. With respect to the relevance of interactions between congestion and congestion charges and tax distortions and distributional concerns, recent insights point out that there is no general case for modifying charges for such interactions. Therefore the simple Pigouvian rule remains a good first approximation for the design of road charging systems. 相似文献
104.
ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on understanding to what extent the components of LUTI models and their mutual interactions are conceptually represented by eight operational LUTI models. This is important for the understanding of LUTI models’ mechanisms, firstly because it may reduce communication barriers between planning communities, secondly because it may help us understand the models’ applicability, and thirdly it may highlight the models’ shortcomings and point for future research. We present a discussion about what subsystems should be considered for LUTI modelling, from which we derived an “a priori” conceptual ALUTI model (incorporating Activities, besides Land Use and Transport). By comparing the rationale behind each model with this conceptual model, we establish the basis for our review, focussing on whether these models incorporate the ALUTI components, its inner workings and the relationships between these components. Results indicate three main limitations of the reviewed models. First, models not always adequately include all the components of the a priori ALUTI model. Second, the ALUTI subsystems’ internal functions are not explicitly modelled in several of the models reviewed, making it difficult to evaluate how planning decisions affect the subsystem. Third, only few models recognise all mutual interactions, especially in respect to the Activity subsystem. 相似文献
105.
106.
Genserik L.L. Reniers Katleen De Jongh Bob Gorrens Dirk Lauwers Maarten Van Leest Frank Witlox 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2010,15(8):489-496
The paper develops a methodology for assessing the relative risk levels in moving hazardous materials by various transport modes. Transportation Risk ANalysis tool for hazardous Substances (TRANS) divides routes into smaller segments using multi-criteria analysis and likelihood scores of accidents in which dangerous cargoes are involved possibly causing fatalities. The consequences of accident scenarios are calculated in terms of the number of people within 1% of the lethal distance from the accident centre. This provides a user-friendly, semi-quantitative risk analysis tool. The generic method allows for comparing the risk levels of the segments of routes used in the transportation of hazardous goods. 相似文献
107.
Jan A. Van Der Linden 《Maritime Policy and Management》2013,40(1):33-54
Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes. 相似文献
108.
The case for including agglomeration benefits within transport appraisal rests on an assumed causality between access to economic
mass and productivity. Such causality is justified by the theory of agglomeration, but is difficult to establish empirically
because estimates may be subject to sources of bias from endogeneity and confounding. The paper shows that conventional panel
methods used to address these problems are unreliable due to the highly persistent nature of accessibility measures. Adopting
an alternative approach, by applying semiparametric techniques to restricted sub-samples of the data, we find considerable
nonlinearity in the relationship between accessibility and productivity with no positive effect to be discerned over broad
ranges of the data. A key conclusion is that we are unable to distinguish the role of accessibility from other potential explanations
for productivity increases. For transport appraisal, this implies that the use of conventional point elasticity estimates
could be highly misleading. 相似文献
109.
Abbas Khosravi Ehsan Mazloumi Saeid Nahavandi Doug Creighton J.W.C. Van Lint 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2011,19(6):1364-1376
The transportation literature is rich in the application of neural networks for travel time prediction. The uncertainty prevailing in operation of transportation systems, however, highly degrades prediction performance of neural networks. Prediction intervals for neural network outcomes can properly represent the uncertainty associated with the predictions. This paper studies an application of the delta technique for the construction of prediction intervals for bus and freeway travel times. The quality of these intervals strongly depends on the neural network structure and a training hyperparameter. A genetic algorithm–based method is developed that automates the neural network model selection and adjustment of the hyperparameter. Model selection and parameter adjustment is carried out through minimization of a prediction interval-based cost function, which depends on the width and coverage probability of constructed prediction intervals. Experiments conducted using the bus and freeway travel time datasets demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method for improving the quality of constructed prediction intervals in terms of their length and coverage probability. 相似文献
110.
Rosaldo J. F. Rossetti Rafael H. Bordini Ana L. C. Bazzan Sergio Bampi Ronghui Liu Dirck Van Vliet 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2002,10(5-6)
The use of multi-agent systems to model and to simulate real systems consisting of intelligent entities capable of autonomously co-operating with each other has emerged as an important field of research. This has been applied to a variety of areas, such as social sciences, engineering, and mathematical and physical theories. In this work, we address the complex task of modelling drivers’ behaviour through the use of agent-based techniques. Contemporary traffic systems have experienced considerable changes in the last few years, and the rapid growth of urban areas has challenged scientific and technical communities. Influencing drivers’ behaviour appears as an alternative to traditional approaches to cope with the potential problem of traffic congestion, such as the physical modification of road infrastructures and the improvement of control systems. It arises as one of the underlying ideas of intelligent transportation systems. In order to offer a good means to evaluate the impact that exogenous information may exert on drivers’ decision making, we propose an extension to an existing microscopic simulation model called Dynamic Route Assignment Combining User Learning and microsimulAtion (DRACULA). In this extension, the traffic domain is viewed as a multi-agent world and drivers are endowed with mental attitudes, which allow rational decisions about route choice and departure time. This work is divided into two main parts. The first part describes the original DRACULA framework and the extension proposed to support our agent-based traffic model. The second part is concerned with the reasoning mechanism of drivers modelled by means of a Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions (BDI) architecture. In this part, we use AgentSpeak(L) to specify commuter scenarios and special emphasis is given to departure time and route choices. This paper contributes in that respect by showing a practical way of representing and assessing drivers’ behaviour and the adequacy of using AgentSpeak(L) as a modelling language, as it provides clear and elegant specifications of BDI agents. 相似文献