Correcting for endogeneity in behavioral choice models with social influence variables

While psychologists and behavioral economists emphasize the importance of social influences, an outstanding issue is how to capture such influences in behavioral models used to inform urban planning and policy. In this paper we focus on operational models that do not require explicit knowledge of the individual networks of decision makers. We employ a field effect variable to capture social influences, which is calculated as the percent of population in the peer group that has chosen the specific alternative. We define the peer group based on socio-economic status and spatial proximity of residential location. As in behavioral economics and psychology, the concept is that one is influenced by the choices made by one’s peers. However, using such a social influence variable in a behavioral model causes complications because it is likely endogenous; unobserved factors that impact the peer group also influence the decision maker, yielding correlation between the field effect variable and the error. The contribution of this paper is the use of the Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (BLP) method to correct the endogeneity in a choice model. The two-stage BLP introduces constants for each peer group to remove the endogeneity from the choice model (where it is difficult to deal with) and insert it into a linear regression model (where endogeneity is relatively easier to deal with). We test the method using a mode choice data set from the Netherlands and readily available software and find there is an upward bias of the field effect parameter when endogeneity is not corrected. The procedure outlined presents a practical and tractable method for incorporating social influences in choice models.     

层间水对水下双层结构撞击历程的影响分析

双层壳体结构是潜艇等大型水下结构的重要结构形式,潜艇结构的水下碰撞是潜艇的主要事故形式,然而,针对双层壳体的潜艇结构水下碰撞问题的研究工作目前却极为有限.文中首先提出潜艇碰撞问题,并对其碰撞特征进行分析,然后针对潜艇水下碰撞环境下,层间水对碰撞历程的影响和双层结构的碰撞特点进行了理论分析,在数值仿真计算的基础上,着重讨论了双层板结构在碰撞过程中,层间水对撞击速度、碰撞力以及双层板吸能特性的影响,分析结果显示,层间水对双层壳板撞击历程的影响主要体现在两方面:一是接触初始阶段,耐压壳板将由于层间水的存在,与非耐压壳板组成抗冲击弹簧体系参与抗冲击作用,吸收冲击能量,这对于双层壳板的防撞性能是有利的;二是非耐压壳板穿透后,层间水的影响主要体现为水对耐压壳板的粘附作用,耐压壳板的抗撞能力显著下降.     

平台支撑的潜艇内部平面舱壁极限强度的模型试验研究

为了研究平台支撑的潜艇内部平面舱壁极限强度,根据实艇舱壁结构,按1∶2的缩尺比设计制作了一个舱壁模型,采用内压试验方法进行了模型极限承载能力的试验.利用国际通用的大型非线性有限元分析软件MSC/MARC,对舱壁模型进行了几何/材料的双重非线性的有限元分析,试验值与有限元分析计算值吻合良好.通过对模型试验结果的分析,得出了一些对指导潜艇平面舱壁结构设计有实用价值的结论.     

海上沉船碍航概率风险评估

为对我国沿海水域沉船进行科学的风险评估及处置决策,确保通航船舶水上安全和畅通,基于事件树方法分析了通航船舶碰撞沉船事故的发生过程和机理,建立了沉船碍航概率风险评估模型.假定通航船舶在航路中的航迹线服从正态分布,根据沉船位置确定了通航船舶驶入碰撞航路的几何概率.根据国内外事故资料确定通航船舶发生异常而避碰失败的基准偏航概率,并考虑了风、流、能见度和交通密度等因素进行修正.通过对实际沉船碍航特性的评估,验证了该方法对沉船管理和处置决策具有实用性和可操作性.     

Driver recognition of a run-over accident

If a driver passes over a pedestrian lying on the road and flees, it is considered a crime. In several cases, even if the driver fled and was arrested, he/she often asserts that they did not know that the victim was a human being. However, the investigation agency often believes that a driver can certainly recognize when he/she passes over a person. Accordingly, such cases frequently lead to disputes due to the lack of criteria for recognizing when a driver was involved in run-over accidents. In this study, tests were conducted both to identify if drivers can recognize whether their vehicles passed over a person and to examine how they feel at the time. A silicon dummy, which was manufactured to have the same characteristic as the human chest, was used in this study. According to the method specified in ISO2631, the vibration delivered to the driver was measured, and eighteen participants drove a vehicle over the silicon dummy to experience how the vibrations felt. When the passenger car for the test ran over the dummy at speeds ranging from 10 km/h to 60 km/h, all participants recognized the delivered vibration, and the VDV that was delivered to the participants ranged from 1.81 m/s ^1.75 to 2.38 m/s ^1.75. The participants thought that the object they drove over was a stone or a piece of wood. This indicates that the driver certainly can recognize the vibrations generated from passing over a human chest even though it feels like a solid object.     

PID plus fuzzy logic method for torque control in traction control system

A Traction Control System (TCS) is used to control the driving force of an engine to prevent excessive slip when a vehicle starts suddenly or accelerates. The torque control strategy determines the driving performance of the vehicle under various drive-slip conditions. This paper presents a new torque control method for various drive-slip conditions involving abrupt changes in the road friction. This method is based on a PID plus fuzzy logic controller for driving torque regulation, which consists of a PID controller and a fuzzy logic controller. The PID controller is the fundamental component that calculates the elementary torque for traction control. In addition, the fuzzy logic controller is the compensating component that compensates for the abrupt change in the road friction. The simulation results and the experimental vehicle tests have validated that the proposed controller is effective and robust. Compared with conventional PID controllers, the driving performance under the proposed controller is greatly improved.     

A novel adaptive algorithm with an IIR filter and a variable step size for active noise control in a short duct

The intake system in an automotive engine has a short duct compared with that of the exhaust system. The filtered-x LMS (FX-LMS) algorithm has been applied to the active noise control (ANC) system in a short acoustic duct. This algorithm design is based on the FIR (finite impulse response) filter; however, it has a slow convergence issue due to a large number of zero coefficients. To improve the convergence performance, the step size of the LMS algorithm was modified from fixed to variable. However, this algorithm is still not suitable for the ANC system of a short acoustic duct because the reference signal is affected by the backward acoustic wave propagated from a secondary source. Therefore, the recursive filtered-u LMS algorithm (FU-LMS) based on the infinite impulse response (IIR) is developed to consider backward acoustic propagation. Generally, this algorithm has a stability problem. The stability issue was improved using an error-smoothing filter. In this paper, the recursive LMS algorithm with a variable step size and smoothing error filter is designed. This recursive LMS algorithm, the FU-VSSLMS algorithm, uses an IIR filter. With fast convergence and good stability, this algorithm is suitable for the ANC system in a short acoustic duct, such as the intake system of an automotive engine. This algorithm is applied to the ANC system of a short acoustic duct. The disturbance signals used as primary noise source are a sinusoidal signal embedded in white noise and the chirp signal, which has a variable instantaneous frequency. The test results demonstrate that the FU-VSSLMS algorithm has a superior convergence performance when compared with the FX-LMS and FX-LMS algorithms. The algorithm can be successfully applied to the ANC system in a short duct, such as the intake duct.