Flight delays,capacity investment and social welfare under air transport supply-demand equilibrium

This paper analyzes benefits from aviation infrastructure investment under competitive supply-demand equilibrium. The analysis recognizes that, in the air transportation system where economies of density is an inherent characteristic, capacity change would trigger a complicated set of adjustment of and interplay among passenger demand, air fare, flight frequency, aircraft size, and flight delays, leading to an equilibrium shift. An analytical model that incorporates these elements is developed. The results from comparative static analysis show that capacity constraint suppresses demand, reduces flight frequency, and increases passenger generalized cost. Our numerical analysis further reveals that, by switching to larger aircraft size, airlines manage to offset part of the delay effect on unit operating cost, and charge passengers lower fare. With higher capacity, airlines tend to raise both fare and frequency while decreasing aircraft size. More demand emerges in the market, with reduced generalized cost for each traveler. The marginal benefit brought by capacity expansion diminishes as the capacity-demand imbalance becomes less severe. Existing passengers in the market receive most of the benefit, followed by airlines. The welfare gains from induced demand are much smaller. The equilibrium approach yields more plausible investment benefit estimates than does the conventional method. In particular, when forecasting future demand the equilibrium approach is capable of preventing the occurrence of excessive high delays.     

The value of travel time and reliability-evidence from a stated preference survey and actual usage

This research examined travel behavior of Managed Lane (ML) users to better understand the value travelers place on travel time savings and travel time reliability. We also highlight the importance of survey design techniques. These objectives were accomplished through a stated preference survey of Houston’s Katy Freeway travelers. Three stated choice experiment survey design techniques were tested in this study: Bayesian (D_b) efficient, random level attribute generation, and an adaptive random approach. Mixed logit models were developed from responses using each of those designs. The value of travel time savings (VTTSs) estimates do vary across the design strategies, with the VTTS estimates based on the D_b-efficient design being approximately half the estimates from the other two designs. However, among the three design strategies, the value of travel time reliability (VOR) was only significant in the D_b-efficient design.The estimated VTTS from actual Katy Freeway usage (as measured using actual tolls paid and travel time saved on the managed lanes) is $51/h. This likely also includes any value that travelers place on travel time reliability. In comparison, our combined estimate of VTTS and VOR based on the SP survey (D_b-efficient design) was $50/h, which is remarkably close to the estimate from the actual usage data. Based on our dataset, the D_b-efficient design technique proved superior to the other two techniques. Finally, this research also supports the importance of including both travel time and travel time reliability parameters when estimating the willingness to pay for, and therefore benefits derived from, ML travel.     

The two-dimensional study of the interaction between liquid loshing and elastic structures

Sloshing phenomenon in the liquid cargo carriers has caught the attention of researchers as the interaction between the sloshing waves and structure is one of the key point and difficulty in the study of sloshing. In this paper, we captured the free surface with a volume of fluid (VOF) method and then calculated the motions and responses of the structure by adopting the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for the whole fluid domain. With the use of user defined functions (UDF) in Fluent, the interaction between fluid and structure was then simulated. As a reasonable simplification, the authors studied the response of a single cantilever in a tank under sloshing loads; Further study should pay more attention to the mechanisms of interaction between sloshing waves and elastic structures.     

Research of scalability of the belt-type sensor networks

For the large-scale application requirements of the belt-type networks, the mathematical modeling as well as quantitative analysis for the scalability of the network based on average path length is completed in this paper, and the theorem for the scale scalability of the belt-type networks is derived. The theorem provides a calculation formula for the upper limit of node scale theory of the belt-type networks and a calculation formula for the upper limit of single node load theory.     

Assessing appropriate stiffness levels for spudcan foundations on dense sand

Before a jack-up can operate at a given location, a site-specific assessment of its ability to withstand a design storm during operation must be performed. During this assessment, the complex state of stress and strain under a spudcan is usually simplified to a value of foundation stiffness that is integrated as a boundary condition into the structural analysis. Soil stiffness is a critical parameter affecting the foundation and structural load distribution and displacements, and the jack-up natural period and dynamic response. The level of spudcan stiffness is an area of intense interest and debate. This paper assesses appropriate stiffness levels for numerical simulation. Utilising results from a detailed “pushover” experiment of a three-legged model jack-up on dense sand, the paper compares the experimental pushover loads and displacements on the hull and spudcans to numerical simulations using different assumptions of spudcan stiffness. These include pinned and encastré footings, linear springs and a force-resultant model based on displacement-hardening plasticity theory. Constant stiffness levels are shown to be inadequate in simulating the experimental pushover test. The non-linear degradation of stiffness associated with the latter force-resultant model is critical.     

Humpback Whales in Tonga: An Economic Resource for Tourism

The growth of whale-watching internationally has been spectacular. It now occurs in almost 100 countries and is estimated to be worth in excess of U.S.$1 billion each year in revenue. Thus, whales have become valuable as a resource for tourism. The Vava'u island group in the northern part of the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific is an area with a growing reputation as a whale-watching destination. However, the industry is relatively new there and the impacts of whale-based tourism in these islands is, as yet, unknown. In addition, there has been a recent consideration of a return to hunting whales in Tonga. As a result, concerns regarding the value of these animals for tourism and the potential impact of a return to hunting have arisen. Consequently, a study was designed to provide a preliminary assessment of the economic impacts of these animals for the island community. This study estimates that humpback whales may be worth in excess of U.S.$700,000 annually as a tourism attraction and that there is significant potential for future growth. Furthermore, the study shows that current visitors are opposed to any resumption of whaling practices in the islands and that such a move would likely displace large numbers of tourists from Tonga. Thus, it is concluded that a resumption of whaling in Tonga would likely have a significant opportunity cost in terms of lost tourism revenues.     

Research of order allocation model based on cloud and hybrid genetic algorithm under ecommerce environment

For massive order allocation problem of the third party logistics (TPL) in ecommerce, this paper proposes a general order allocation model based on cloud architecture and hybrid genetic algorithm (GA), implementing cloud deployable MapReduce (MR) code to parallelize allocation process, using heuristic rule to fix illegal chromosome during encoding process and adopting mixed integer programming (MIP) as fitness function to guarantee rationality of chromosome fitness. The simulation experiment shows that in mass processing of orders, the model performance in a multi-server cluster environment is remarkable superior to that in stand-alone environment. This model can be directly applied to cloud based logistics information platform (LIP) in near future, implementing fast auto-allocation for massive concurrent orders, with great application value.     

Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models

The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood points and ρ² increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing countries.

The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key reasons for rapid growth

Annual electric bike (e-bike) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005. This rapid transition from human-powered bicycles, buses and gasoline-powered scooters to an all-electric vehicle/fuel technology system is special in the evolution of transportation technology and, thus far, unique to China. We examine how and why e-bikes developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical, economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides important insights to policy makers in China and abroad on how timely regulatory policy can change the purchase choice of millions and create a new mode of transportation. These lessons are especially important to China as it embarks on a large-scale transition to personal vehicles, but also to other countries seeking more sustainable forms of transportation.

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.