The value of travel time and reliability-evidence from a stated preference survey and actual usage

This research examined travel behavior of Managed Lane (ML) users to better understand the value travelers place on travel time savings and travel time reliability. We also highlight the importance of survey design techniques. These objectives were accomplished through a stated preference survey of Houston’s Katy Freeway travelers. Three stated choice experiment survey design techniques were tested in this study: Bayesian (D_b) efficient, random level attribute generation, and an adaptive random approach. Mixed logit models were developed from responses using each of those designs. The value of travel time savings (VTTSs) estimates do vary across the design strategies, with the VTTS estimates based on the D_b-efficient design being approximately half the estimates from the other two designs. However, among the three design strategies, the value of travel time reliability (VOR) was only significant in the D_b-efficient design.The estimated VTTS from actual Katy Freeway usage (as measured using actual tolls paid and travel time saved on the managed lanes) is $51/h. This likely also includes any value that travelers place on travel time reliability. In comparison, our combined estimate of VTTS and VOR based on the SP survey (D_b-efficient design) was $50/h, which is remarkably close to the estimate from the actual usage data. Based on our dataset, the D_b-efficient design technique proved superior to the other two techniques. Finally, this research also supports the importance of including both travel time and travel time reliability parameters when estimating the willingness to pay for, and therefore benefits derived from, ML travel.     

Assessing appropriate stiffness levels for spudcan foundations on dense sand

Before a jack-up can operate at a given location, a site-specific assessment of its ability to withstand a design storm during operation must be performed. During this assessment, the complex state of stress and strain under a spudcan is usually simplified to a value of foundation stiffness that is integrated as a boundary condition into the structural analysis. Soil stiffness is a critical parameter affecting the foundation and structural load distribution and displacements, and the jack-up natural period and dynamic response. The level of spudcan stiffness is an area of intense interest and debate. This paper assesses appropriate stiffness levels for numerical simulation. Utilising results from a detailed “pushover” experiment of a three-legged model jack-up on dense sand, the paper compares the experimental pushover loads and displacements on the hull and spudcans to numerical simulations using different assumptions of spudcan stiffness. These include pinned and encastré footings, linear springs and a force-resultant model based on displacement-hardening plasticity theory. Constant stiffness levels are shown to be inadequate in simulating the experimental pushover test. The non-linear degradation of stiffness associated with the latter force-resultant model is critical.     

Humpback Whales in Tonga: An Economic Resource for Tourism

The growth of whale-watching internationally has been spectacular. It now occurs in almost 100 countries and is estimated to be worth in excess of U.S.$1 billion each year in revenue. Thus, whales have become valuable as a resource for tourism. The Vava'u island group in the northern part of the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific is an area with a growing reputation as a whale-watching destination. However, the industry is relatively new there and the impacts of whale-based tourism in these islands is, as yet, unknown. In addition, there has been a recent consideration of a return to hunting whales in Tonga. As a result, concerns regarding the value of these animals for tourism and the potential impact of a return to hunting have arisen. Consequently, a study was designed to provide a preliminary assessment of the economic impacts of these animals for the island community. This study estimates that humpback whales may be worth in excess of U.S.$700,000 annually as a tourism attraction and that there is significant potential for future growth. Furthermore, the study shows that current visitors are opposed to any resumption of whaling practices in the islands and that such a move would likely displace large numbers of tourists from Tonga. Thus, it is concluded that a resumption of whaling in Tonga would likely have a significant opportunity cost in terms of lost tourism revenues.     

Altruism,selfishness and coastal resources

Abstract

The basis for coastal zone management in the United States is established in legislation. In comparison, Canadian federal and provincial governments have adopted a piecemeal approach for managing a variety of concerns examined here: water quality, ecological protection, public access, aesthetics, natural hazards, and water dependency. As a result of this approach, which is characterized by a minimum of federal, provincial, and interjurisdictional coordination, the British Columbia coastal zone is showing signs of stress. For example, major shellfish harvesting areas are being lost to water pollution; ecologically sensitive habitats are being consumed by urban, commercial, and industrial expansion; recreation and tourism opportunities are being impaired by clear cutting and other inappropriate developments; and infrastructure is allowed in flood and erosion‐prone areas. Recommendations to improve the approach to coastal management in British Columbia include a variety of innovations. New federal and provincial policies, legislation, institutions, and experimentation with local and regional integrated resource planning are required to better govern the coastal zone. Increased support for existing agencies, public involvement, and access to information as well as more common use of environmental impact studies are needed to justify proposed coastal developments.     

An analysis of the retail and lifecycle cost of battery-powered electric vehicles

Regulators, policy analysts, automobile manufacturers, environmental groups, and others are debating the merits of policies regarding the development and use of battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs). At the crux of this debate is lifecycle cost: the annualized initial vehicle cost, plus annual operating and maintenance costs, plus battery replacement costs. To address this issue of cost, we have developed a detailed model of the performance, energy use, manufacturing cost, retail cost, and lifecycle cost of electric vehicles and comparable gasoline internal-combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). This effort is an improvement over most previous studies of electric vehicle costs because instead of assuming important parameter values for such variables as vehicle efficiency and battery cost, we model these values in detail. We find that in order for electric vehicles to be cost-competitive with gasoline ICEVs, batteries must have a lower manufacturing cost, and a longer life, than the best lithium-ion and nickel–metal hydride batteries we modeled. We believe that it is most important to reduce the battery manufacturing cost to $100/kWh or less, attain a cycle life of 1200 or more and a calendar life of 12 years or more, and aim for a specific energy of around 100 Wh/kg.     

Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK

This paper has two objectives: to examine the volatility of travel behaviour over time and consider the factors explaining this volatility; and to estimate the factors determining car ownership and commuting by car. The analysis is based on observations of individuals and households over a period of up to 11 years obtained from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). Changes in car ownership, commuting mode and commuting time over a period of years for the same individuals/households are examined to determine the extent to which these change from year-to-year. This volatility of individual behaviour is a measure of the ease of change or adaptation. If behaviour changes easily, policy measures are likely to have a stronger and more rapid effect than if there is more resistance to change. The changes are “explained” in terms of factors such as moving house, changing job and employment status. The factors determining car ownership and commuting by car are analysed using a dynamic panel-data models.     

A block queueing system for slow moving traffic

A common cause of pollution and waste in urban areas is facilities which provide a continuous slow service for motor vehicles. As demand approaches supply, queues can develop and large numbers of engines can often be idling. Typical examples are car park entrances and drive through fast food outlets. This paper proposes a block queueing system to alleviate the problem without using excessive road space and with a minimum of extra infrastructure. The queue is divided into an active section at the front (with engines running) and a passive section at the rear (where drivers switch their engines off). Periodically, as the active queue becomes depleted, the passive queue is momentarily activated and a block of vehicles advances into the active queue. A visual cue can be provided to the drivers using a vehicle actuated traffic signal. It is readily apparent that drivers in the passive queue have to switch their engines on and off at regular intervals. Since this operation has an inherent cost in itself, this argues in favour of a large block size. However, large blocks mean more engines idling in the active queue. A compromise must be therefore reached for the likely range of queue lengths which the system under consideration exhibits. An expression is derived for the optimum block size in steady state conditions. It is shown that the potential benefits of the regime are considerable.     

Park-and-ride lot choice model using random utility maximization and random regret minimization

This research aims to understand the park-and-ride (PNR) lot choice behaviour of users i.e., why PNR user choose one PNR lot versus another. Multinomial logit models are developed, the first based on the random utility maximization (RUM) concept where users are assumed to choose alternatives that have maximum utility, and the second based on the random regret minimization (RRM) concept where users are assumed to make decisions such that they minimize the regret in comparison to other foregone alternatives. A PNR trip is completed in two networks, the auto network and the transit network. The travel time of users for both the auto network and the transit network are used to create variables in the model. For the auto network, travel time is obtained using information from the strategic transport network using EMME/4 software, whereas travel time for the transit network is calculated using Google’s general transit feed specification data using a backward time-dependent shortest path algorithm. The involvement of two different networks in a PNR trip causes a trade-off relation within the PNR lot choice mechanism, and it is anticipated that an RRM model that captures this compromise effect may outperform typical RUM models. We use two forms of RRM models; the classical RRM and µRRM. Our results not only confirm a decade-old understanding that the RRM model may be an alternative concept to model transport choices, but also strengthen this understanding by exploring differences between two models in terms of model fit and out-of-sample predictive abilities. Further, our work is one of the few that estimates an RRM model on revealed preference data.