A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

Integrated Control Methodologies for Road Vehicles

Summary This paper considers the scope, methodologies and architectures for the design and development of interacting control systems in road vehicles. The increasing use of electronic controls leads inevitably to an increase in overall system complexity. Given the time and economic constraints of the modern automotive industry, it is not feasible to synthesise and validate the full set of vehicle controls in the form of a unified and centralized controller. On the other hand a fully decentralized approach to control system development and operation will induce performance limitations from un-modelled or unexpected interactions; at worst, such interactions can cause instability and loss of function. There is now increasing pressure to achieve control coordination whilst maintaining a modular approach to the overall system design. With this in mind, the paper provides a framework to review current practice in integrated vehicle control, assesses recent developments in control integration methodologies that are most relevant to the vehicle application, and formulates an enhanced multi-layer architecture that includes explicit coordination functionality. Overall emphasis is placed on the role of control system architecture, the resulting flow of control information and the implications for control system design. An example from handling dynamics is presented, demonstrating the viability of new and flexible approaches. In conclusion a number of outstanding research problems are highlighted.     

Using a random displacement model to simulate turbulent particle motion in a baroclinic frontal zone: A new implementation scheme and model performance tests

Numerical artifacts can limit accurate simulation of turbulent particle motion when Lagrangian particle-tracking models are implemented in hydrodynamic models with stratified conditions like fronts. Yet, modeling of individual particle motion in frontal regions is critical for understanding sediment dynamics as well as the transport and retention of planktonic organisms. The objective of this research was to develop a numerical technique to accurately simulate turbulent particle motions in a particle-tracking model embedded within a hydrodynamic model of a frontal zone. A new interpolation scheme, the ‘water column profile’ scheme, was developed and used to implement a random displacement model for turbulent particle motions. A new interpolation scheme was necessary because linear interpolation schemes caused artificial aggregation of particles where abrupt changes in vertical diffusivity occurred. The new ‘water column profile’ scheme was used to fit a continuous function (a tension spline) to a smoothed profile of vertical diffusivities at the x–y particle location. The new implementation scheme was checked for artifacts and compared with a standard random walk model using (1) Well Mixed Condition tests, and (2) dye-release experiments. The Well Mixed Condition tests confirmed that the use of the ‘water column profile’ interpolation scheme for implementing the random displacement model significantly reduced numerical artifacts. In dye-release experiments, high concentrations of Eulerian tracer and Lagrangian particles were released at the same location up-estuary of the salt front and tracked for 4 days. After small differences in initial dispersal rates, tracer and particle distributions remained highly correlated (r = 0.84 to 0.99) when a random displacement model was implemented in the particle-tracking model. In contrast, correlation coefficients were substantially lower (r = 0.07 to 0.58) when a random walk model was implemented. In general, model performance tests indicated that the ‘water column interpolation’ scheme was an effective technique for implementing a random displacement model within a hydrodynamic model, and both could be used to accurately simulate diffusion in a highly baroclinic frontal region. The new implementation scheme has the potential to be a useful tool for investigating the influence of hydrodynamic variability on the transport of sediment particles and planktonic organisms in frontal zones.     

Performance Potential and Power Consumption of Slow-Active Suspension Systems with Preview

Two possible layouts of a slow-active suspension model are analysed. Optimal control laws for different actuator bandwidths and various amounts of road preview are generated, and estimates of power consumption are made. Higher bandwidth systems (10Hz) require less preview to obtain a given level of performance than those with a lower bandwidth (3Hz) but use more energy in doing so. Similar performance is available from the two systems considered, although the second uses considerably less energy to obtain that performance.     

An approach to estimation of near-surface turbulence and CO2 transfer velocity from remote sensing data

The air–sea CO₂ exchange is primarily determined by the boundary-layer processes in the near-surface layer of the ocean since it is a water-side limited gas. As a consequence, the interfacial component of the CO₂ transfer velocity can be linked to parameters of turbulence in the near-surface layer of the ocean. The development of remote sensing techniques provides a possibility to quantify the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity on a global scale. In this work, the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and its patchiness has been linked to the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity with a boundary-layer type model. Field observations of upper ocean turbulence, laboratory studies, and the direct CO₂ flux measurements are used to validate the model. The model is then forced with the TOPEX POSEIDON wind speed and significant wave height to demonstrate its applicability for estimating the distribution of the near-surface turbulence dissipation rate and gas transfer velocity for an extended (decadal) time period. A future version of this remote sensing algorithm will incorporate directional wind/wave data being available from QUIKSCAT, a now-cast wave model, and satellite heat fluxes. The inclusion of microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) will provide additional information on the fractional whitecap coverage and sea surface turbulence patchiness.     

Quantifying erosion rates and stability of bottom sediments at mussel aquaculture sites in Prince Edward Island,Canada

Downward fluxes of organic biodeposits under suspended mussel culture cause benthic impacts such as microbial mat production. Quantifying sediment erosion in these coastal ecosystems is important for understanding how fluxes of organic matter and particulates contribute to benthic–pelagic coupling. Critical shear velocity (u?), erosion rates and particle size distributions of resuspended sediment were measured at two sites; an impacted muddy site with extensive mussel culture (site 1), and a coarser sandier site with less mussel influence (site 2), using a new method for assessing sediment erosion at Tracadie Bay, Prince Edward Island in August 2003. Shear forces were generated by vertically oscillating a perforated disc at controlled frequencies. These forces correspond to shear velocity, using a re-designed and calibrated Particle Erosion Simulator. Undisturbed sediment cores obtained by divers and grab (sub-cored using a Plexiglas? cores) were exposed to shear stress to compare differences between collection methods. Microbial mats were present at site 1 which initially biostabilized sediment against erosion due to ‘armoring’ of the sediment, but onset of erosion was abrupt once these mats failed. Erosion sequences at site 2 (without mat cover) were smoother resulting in less material being eroded. Mean mass of material eroded was 47 and 23 g m^? 2 min^? 1 at sites 1 and 2 respectively. Mat area cover and shear velocity was strongly related. Critical shear velocities varied between 1.70 and 1.77 cm s^? 1, with no obvious differences between location or collection method, so sediments from these two contrasting sites had identical mean critical shear velocities. Significant differences existed in the concentrations of chlorophyll a, colloidal and bulk carbohydrates, between mats and bare sediment from site 1. Particle sizes measured by videography of resuspended sediment at different shear velocities ranged from 100 μm (the minimum diameter capable of being detected by the system), to large mat fragments of 1700 μm for both sites. These results provide evidence of the relevance of using a portable erosion device to indicate how sediment erodability is affected by mussel–microbial relationships.