中国经济与全球海运经济

在2007～2009年间的两年中,航运市场的供需发生了巨大变化。受全球金融危机的影响,需求减少,给全球经济带来重创。决策者不知道需求何时才能回暖。航运业的供应面临船厂造船能力扩张和订单量减少的压力。因此,航运业在未来很长一段时间将处于萧条状态。但是,有一点是可以避免的。     

Climate change and the future Maritime Policy for the EU

A cross-cutting Maritime Policy can ensure that climate change threats and challenges in regards to seas and oceans are dealt with in a wide policy framework that takes into account the impacts that climate change may have on other sectors and vice versa.     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

The taxi's role in urban America: Today and tomorrow

Changes in the economic and demographic characteristics of US cities over the past two decades have modified but have not diminished the need for extensive public transportation service in these areas. The vast bulk of trips to work, to shop, and for most other purposes within large American cities are still made by residents of those cities, a significant portion of whom do not own or have access to an automobile. Expensive and far-ranging programs to enhance surburban commutation to the central city by means of rail rapid transit do little to meet the needs of those who still must rely upon local, extensive service within the city.One form of public transport — the taxicab — offers the quality and flexibility of service which even those of limited means find well worth the price. As a consequence, fleet taxicabs serve almost 40 percent more passengers than all US rapid transit systems and about 60 percent as many passengers as all bus transit systems. Removal of archaic and restrictive regulations governing the number and use of taxicabs in major US cities would promote more effective and widespread use of this, the only form of public transit that still operates — at a profit — without public subsidy.     

Probabilistic model for destination inference and travel pattern mining from smart card data

Transportation - Inferring trip destination in smart card data with only tap-in control is an important application. Most existing methods estimate trip destinations based on the continuity of trip...     

Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography

This paper outlines an approach to complex spatio-temporal marine ecosystem modelling as applied to the North Western European Continental Shelf. The model presented here combines an eddy-permitting (approximately 6 km horizontal resolution) baroclinic model, the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS), with the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). This has been run within an operational framework using operationally available high resolution atmospheric and lateral boundary forcing, allowing hindcast and near-real time nowcast simulations to be performed. The modelled surface temperature and chlorophyll distributions are presented, and interannual variations discussed. Validation of both the physical and ecosystem submodels show the system to be effective, whilst highlighting areas where improvements in the system can be made. Distinct regional differences in predictive skill are shown. The system presented is ready for operational implementation to provide products and services for use both scientifically and in coastal zone and shelf seas management activities. A programme of work to update the system is already in place.     

Crime in public transit systems: An environmental design perspective

Crime on public transit is receiving increasing attention in the United States. This paper reviews security precautions taken in the planning of bus operations. Also included is a statistical analysis of criminal incidents occurring over a ten-year period on the Southern California Rapid Transit District of Los Angeles. The analysis shows that crime on transit has increased about in proportion to transit ridership, and that it is concentrated in both space and time. Crimes occur mostly on routes which traverse areas having high crime rates in general. Although most transit crimes occur at hours when ridership is high, the rates of occurrence are disproportionately high during the evening hours. Bus drivers experience much higher rates of exposure to criminal incidents than transit passengers. The transportation environment is really a complex of many dissimilar environments, and a variety of strategies is required to meet the needs posed by diverse environments.     

实现化、实例化和个性化——系统功能语言学的三种层次关系

系统功能语言学已走过50多年的历程。50多年里,首先研究的主要是语言系统层次的实现化关系,后来研究与之互补的实例化关系。语言系统中包括音系字系系统、词汇语法系统和语篇语义系统。这三个系统层次是实现关系,语篇语义由词汇语法实现,词汇语法由音系字系实现。每个系统都受语域和语类的影响,从而产生不同的文本类型,文本就是语域和语类的实例化结果。但实现化和实例化对个体文本中意识形态和互文性的解读缺乏说服力,急需建构与它们互补的其他层次关系。本文是在介绍实现化和实例化的基础上推出个性化层次关系,从而丰富系统功能语言学对大语篇研究的理论框架。除了介绍三种层次关系外,还通过实例分析来验证三种互补层次关系的可用性。     

Calculation of external costs for freight transport

Abstract

The negative impacts of transport are in general associated with costs. These costs are usually denoted as ‘external costs’ or ‘externalities’. This paper presents a tool for calculating external costs for freight transport together with its application to a number of case studies. The categories considered include: air pollution, greenhouse gases, noise, accidents and congestion. Results are presented for a number of different transport alternatives as total costs and divided into categories. The uncertainties in the results are discussed. The assessment of these costs is essential for predicting future transport costs.     

E‐Shopping and its Relationship with In‐store Shopping: Empirical Evidence from the Netherlands and the USA

Abstract

Despite considerable examination of the impact of telecommunications on travel, little empirical evidence sheds light on the impact of e‐shopping on travel—a recent and increasingly popular form of telecommunications. This paper analyses determinants of online buying and their relationship with in‐store shopping, using empirical data obtained from Minneapolis, USA, and Utrecht, the Netherlands. Based on chi‐square tests and logistic and ordinary least‐squares regressions, the results indicate that online buying is affected by sociodemographics and spatial characteristics of people, their Internet experience, and their attitudes towards in‐store shopping. US respondents who prefer to see products in person are less likely to buy online. Dutch respondents are more likely to buy online as travel times to shops are shorter. At first sight, this counterintuitive result might be related to an urban, innovative lifestyle that supports e‐shopping. A more detailed analysis of Dutch online buyers reveals that they make more shopping trips than non‐online buyers and have a shorter shopping duration. The results indicate that the relationship between online buying and in‐store shopping is not one of substitution but of complementarity.