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121.
This paper proposes a theoretical methodology and practical data collection approach for modeling enroute driver behavioral choice under Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS). The theoretical framework is based on conflict assessment and resolution theories popularized in psychology and applied to models of individual consumer behavior. It is posed that enroute assessment and adjustment is a reactionary process influenced by increased conflict arousal and motivation to change. When conflict rises to a level at which conflict exceeds a personal threshold of tolerance, drivers are likely to alter enroute behavior to alleviate conflict through either route diversion of goal revision. Assessment and response to conflict arousal directly relate to the driver's abilities to perceive and predict network conditions in conjunction with familiarity of network configurations and accessible alternate routes.Data collection is accomplished through FASTCARS (Freeway andArterialStreetTrafficConflictArousal andResolutionSimulator), in interactive microcomputer-based driving simulator. Limited real-world implementation of ATIS has made it difficult to study or predict individual driver reaction to these technologies. It is contended here that in-laboratory experimentation with interactive route choice simulators can substitute for the lack of real-world applications and provide an alternate approach to data collection and driver behavior analysis. This paper will explain how FASTCARS is useful for collecting data and testing theories of driver behavior. 相似文献
122.
Michael Roe 《Transportation》1989,16(4):343-359
This paper analyses the development of transport policy making in Eastern Europe over the last forty years and describes the role of the CMEA in determining national developments in Poland, Romania, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. The USSR, Albania and Yugoslavia are excluded. The planning system as operated in the Eastern Block, is described, followed by a particular case study of Hungarian policy making with respect to the transport sector. Specific tansport issues relating to Hungary are outlined before conclusions are drawn in terms of future developments in relation with the European Community. 相似文献
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124.
Improvement in forecasting accuracy is a difficult task but critical for business success. This paper investigates the potential of neural networks for short- to long-term prediction of monthly tanker freight rates. Procedures are outlined for the development of the neural networks. The problem of under-training and over-training is addressed by controlling the number of iterations during the training process of neural networks. A comparative study of predictive performance between neural networks and ARMA time series models is conducted. Our evience shows that neural networks can significantly outperform time series models, especially for longer-term forecasting. 相似文献
125.
This paper examines the changing position of Polish Ocean Lines (POL) container shipping activities in the North Atlantic, in the light of social, political and economic changes occurring in Poland. An analysis is made of alternative ways of assessing company position—ranging from the qualitative to the quantitative—and that of a qualitative framework approach is selected. Application of this framework using POL as a case study provides an indication of positional change between 1988 and 1993 reflecting the period of major change in Eastern Europe. 相似文献
126.
This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecommute from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted 2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 = 0.64). A nested logit model is also estimated on the following four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted 2 = 0.35).The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interaction, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were statistically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecommute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommuting centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction. 相似文献
127.
We provide a sufficient condition for the convergence of diagonalization algorithms for equilibrium traffic assignment problems with asymmetric Jacobian matrix B(v) of the link user cost mapping s(v) of the flow v. When
, where D(v*) > 0 is the diagonal of B(v*) and v* is the equilibrium flow, we demonstrate a local convergence theorem for nonlinear cost functions. The implication of this result for practical applications of the model are outlined. 相似文献
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128.
The last decade has seen considerable developments in computer assisted design procedures which enable planners to investigate the impacts of changes in the transport system. These developments have become more available to analysts through the introduction of microcomputers and computer graphics. Unfortunately, the impacts of parking on the transport have not been incorporated explicitly in many of these models since their prime concern is the movement of traffic. Parking system design and policy analysis can, however, benefit greatly from these developments in computer technology and availability. The design of parking systems can be improved and the investigation of policy impacts can be trialed or refined prior to their introduction using microcomputer packages. This paper outlines some developments in these areas. More specifically, it outlines a hierarchy or microcomputer models and information systems that can investigate parking policy and study the level of service provided by parking systems. 相似文献
129.
Michael Everett 《Transportation》1977,6(1):57-70
Labor-intensive systems such as bikeways and pedestrian ways suffer in transportation planning in part because traditional benefit-cost analysis focuses on narrow, private transportation savings (e.g., reducing vehicle and time costs).Planners need benefit-cost frameworks which capture the community-wide effects of such innovative transportation systems — reduction in air pollution, less congestion, and increases in exercise and outdoor recreation. This study discusses practical methods for planners to include such categories in their analyses and applies these methods to two case studies. The analysis yields benefit-cost ratios which are much higher than those found in most public projects — suggesting negative returns to marginal automobiles in congested areas such as university campuses. The paper concludes with some suggested bikeway planning guidelines that emerge from expanded benefit-cost analysis. 相似文献
130.