The performance of route modification and demand stabilization strategies in stochastic vehicle routing

A key concern in managing vehicle routing operations under stochastic demands is whether, on the basis of travel distance, route modification yields materially greater logistical efficiency than fixed routes. This research uses statistical calibration as the primary technique to develop a robust and tractable model for estimating this difference in logistical efficiency. Based on features such as the models predictive accuracy and generalizability, it constitutes a substantive improvement over existing models. The present study also expands the range of predictive models relevant to vehicle routing under stochastic demands with models to estimate the transportation and inventory effects of persuading customers to stabilize their ordering patterns.     

Induced traffic and economic appraisal

Economic appraisal of major roads in the UK is based on a set of standard procedures and conventions. A central assumption has been that the volume and pattern of traffic in any given year is independent of the quality of service offered by the network — the fixed trip matrix assumption. Failing to consider induced traffic can have serious consequences for the accuracy and robustness of the measured traffic benefits from road improvements. Assessment of the wider economic benefits of roads, which is an important political imperative for road investment, is also made more difficult. Two conclusions are reached. Variable trip matrix methods need to be introduced for the appraisal of major road schemes, and scheme appraisal needs to be complemented by a more strategic area-wide approach to evaluation. In responding to its advisory committee (SACTRA), the UK Department of Transport has accepted the first of these conclusions and is cautiously favourable to the second.     

Link choice proportions from trip distribution and assignment models: An overview and comparison

A number of estimation procedures have been suggested for the situation where a prior estimate of an origin-destination matrix is to be updated on the basis of recently-acquired traffic counts. These procedures assume that both the link flows and the proportionate usage of each link made by each origin-destination flow (referred to collectively as the link choice proportions) are known. This paper examines the possibility and methods for estimating the link choice proportions. Three methods are presented: (1) using ad hoc iteration between trip distribution and traffic assignment; (2) combining trip distribution and assignment in one step; (3) solving a new optimization problem in which the path flows are directly considered as variables and its optimal solution is governed by a logit type formula. The algorithms, covergencies and computational efficiencies of these methods are investigated. Results of testing the three methods on example networks are discussed.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

Parking policy and urban goals: Linking strategy to needs

Parking management strategies have traditionally been used as a means of accommodating traffic demand, with little or no effort made to identify how such strategies might relate to other urban objectives. In this paper, parking management strategies are classified according to the control they exert over the amount of aggregate parking supply, access to parking, spatial distribution of parking supply, or dollar price of parking. Six general categories of urban policy objectives are identified, and the relationship between parking strategies and these objectives analyzed. The parking program in Baltimore is used to illustrate some of the relationships identified in this analysis. This paper concludes that the linkage between parking and the attainment of some urban objectives is potentially quite strong, and that further empirical research is needed to fully establish this relationship. Several different directions for further research are also identified.     

Reported household gasoline purchasing experience: June 1979

A sample of 1000 households completed a questionnaire regarding difficulties encountered purchasing gasoline during the week 4–10 June 1979 and whether difficulties encountered purchasing gasoline affected household automobile tripmaking. Results of this survey were analyzed and it was found that the frequency of reporting purchasing difficulties varied directly with household income and inversely with the age of the household. The frequency of reporting that purchasing difficulties affected automobile trip-making varied directly with household income and inversely with the number of adults in the household. Further, although individual household response was highly sensitive to socioeconomic characteristics, the overall response to the survey would not have differed significantly had the socioeconomic mix of households been different.     

Junction interactions and monotonicity in traffic assignment

We consider the traffic equilibrium problem when the travel demand is inelastic and stationary in time. Junction interactions, which abound in urban road networks, are permitted. We prove that the set of equilibria (solutions to the assignment problem) is convex when certain monotonicity and continuity conditions are statisfied at each junction.     

TRAMS: Transit route animation and modelling by simulation

Public transport managers and operators face increasingly difficult problems in providing adequate levels of service at reasonable social and financial costs. A greater demand exists for analytical techniques which allow them to evaluate changes in operational strategies before committing themselves to implementation in the field. This paper describes the development of a discrete event simulation model for the analysis of on-street transit routes. The structure of the model is described and details are provided of the types of events which are explicitly modelled in the TRAMS package. The input requirements are described, and the modular nature of the simulation model is highlighted. The various options for output format are described, including the use of a computer graphics real-time animation option. The range of output performance measures are then discussed, and some comments on areas of application conclude the paper.     

Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.