Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

How much disruption to activities could fuel shortages cause? – The British fuel crisis of September 2000

In September of 2000 the UK experienced a blockade of oil refineries in response to rising fuel prices. These protests resulted in severe fuel supply disruptions that intensified over the course of about one week. During the peak of the crisis, travel activity by car was curtailed. This paper analyzes survey data collected about two months after the crisis utilizing the recent memory of respondents as to how they would expect this sort of disruption to affect their participation in daily activities. Specifically, we focused on a variety of non-discretionary and discretionary activities and examined what factors are associated with respondents expecting disruption to those activities. Statistical models were developed to analyze how demographic factors, commute mode selection, vehicle characteristics, and various other factors can explain how individuals expect disruption to their activities. Results suggest that the majority of individuals do not expect major disruptions, although for more car-dependent individuals, disruption was expected to be substantial, especially for work-related trips. These results have implications for the potential success and benefits of an integrated transport policy.     

UK tonnage tax: subsidy or special case?

Following the introduction of tonnage tax for UK-based shipping companies in 2000, the industry now has the opportunity to opt for a tax regime that is beneficial in contrast to the corporation tax applied to most other sectors. This paper aims to summarize the tonnage tax scheme and then to go on to assess whether its introduction was appropriate. In doing so, it assesses whether the benefits it brings to the UK shipping industry are in fact fiscally justifiable in terms of the advantages that have been suggested recently by a number of commentators. These are claimed to derive from the comparative advantage of the UK shipping industry, the need for more skilled on-shore shipping staff with sea-going experience, and in terms of sustaining the maritime cluster typified by the maritime activities of the City of London.     

Wave scattering by multiple floating elastic plates with spring or hinged boundary conditions

We solve the problem of wave scattering by multiple floating elastic plates with arbitrary boundary conditions, such as spring connectors or hinges at the plate edges. We present two solution methods, the first method is based on a matched eigenfunction expansion and the second uses a Green function. The matched eigenfunction expansion method allows arbitrary parameters for a given plate and also allows regions of open water. The Green function method requires that all plate properties must be uniform except plate length and the plate must cover the entire free surface. The Green function method is much less computationally demanding than the matched eigenfunction method and provides a test of accuracy. A range of results are presented, which show that the behaviour of the plate depends strongly on the boundary conditions at the plate edges.     

Shipboard manning

This paper reports the results of the first phase of a research project to explore alternative shipboard manning structures. A review was conducted of relevant literature, although since the STCW revision in 1995, earlier studies are no longer as relevant as they were. It was clear from this review that few organisations have explored the potential of Chapter VII of the Convention for alternative structures and certification.     

Simulation methods supporting homologation of Electronic Stability Control in vehicle variants

ABSTRACT

Vehicle simulation has a long tradition in the automotive industry as a powerful supplement to physical vehicle testing. In the field of Electronic Stability Control (ESC) system, the simulation process has been well established to support the ESC development and application by suppliers and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). The latest regulation of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UN/ECE-R 13 allows also for simulation-based homologation. This extends the usage of simulation from ESC development to homologation. This paper gives an overview of simulation methods, as well as processes and tools used for the homologation of ESC in vehicle variants. The paper first describes the generic homologation process according to the European Regulation (UN/ECE-R 13H, UN/ECE-R 13/11) and U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS 126). Subsequently the ESC system is explained as well as the generic application and release process at the supplier and OEM side. Coming up with the simulation methods, the ESC development and application process needs to be adapted for the virtual vehicles. The simulation environment, consisting of vehicle model, ESC model and simulation platform, is explained in detail with some exemplary use-cases. In the final section, examples of simulation-based ESC homologation in vehicle variants are shown for passenger cars, light trucks, heavy trucks and trailers. This paper is targeted to give a state-of-the-art account of the simulation methods supporting the homologation of ESC systems in vehicle variants. However, the described approach and the lessons learned can be used as reference in future for an extended usage of simulation-supported releases of the ESC system up to the development and release of driver assistance systems.

Abbreviations: ABS: Anti-lock braking system; ADR: Australian design rules; ALB: Automatic load-dependent brake force controller; AMEVSC: Alternative method to assess the electronic vehicle stability control system; APP: Application; BSC: Brake slip controller; CAE: Computer-aided engineering; CAN: Controller area network; CAT: Category; CoG: Centre of gravity; DIN: Deutsches Institut für Normung (German Institute for Standards); EB+: Trademark of Haldex; EBD: Electronic brake force distribution; EBS: Electronic brake system; ECU: Electronic control unit; ESC: Electronic stability control; ECVWTA: European Community Whole Vehicle Type Approval; FMVSS: Federal motor vehicle safety standards; GPS: Global positioning system; GRRF: Groupe de travail en matiere de roulement et de freinage (Working Party on Braking and Running Gear); HiL: Hardware-in-the-Loop; HSRI: Highway Safety Research Institute; K&C: Kinematic and compliant (KnC); MBS: Multibody systems; MPV: Multipurpose vehicle; NHTSA: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; OEM: Original equipment manufacturer; SiL: Software-in-the-Loop; ST: Summer tyres; STM: Single track model; StVO: Straßenverkehrsordnung (Government Highway Regulations); SUV: Sports utility vehicle; SW: Software; SwD: Sine with dwell manoeuvre; TC: Threshold consumption value; TCS: Traction control system; TRIAS: Test Requirements and Instructions for Automobile Standards; UN/ECE: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe; VAF: Value-added function; VDC: Vehicle dynamics controller; VTC: Vehicle test catalogue; WT: Winter tyres     

Defining and understanding trip chaining behaviour

Trip chaining is a phenomenon that we know exists but rarely investigate. This could be attributed to either the difficulty in defining trip chains, extracting such information from travel diary surveys, the difficulty in analysing all the possible trip chain types, or all of the above. Household travel diary surveys provide a wealth of information on the travel patterns of individuals and households. Since such surveys collect all information related to travel undertaken, in theory it should be possible to extract trip-chaining characteristics of travel from them. Due to the difficulty in establishing and analysing all of the possible trip chain types, the majority of research on trip chaining has appeared to focus on work travel only. However, work related travel in many cities does not represent the majority of activities undertaken and, for some age groups, does not represent any travel at all. This paper begins by reviewing existing research in the field of trip chaining. In particular, investigations into the definitions of trip chaining, the defined typologies of trip chains and the research questions that have been addressed are explored. This review of previous research into trip chaining facilitates the following tasks: the identification of the most useful questions to be addressed by this research; defining trip chaining and associated typologies and defining data structures to extract trip chaining information from the household travel surveys conducted in metropolitan Adelaide, South Australia. The definition and typology developed in our research was then used to extract trip-chaining information from the household travel diary survey (MAHTS99) conducted in Adelaide in 1999. The extracted trip chaining information was then used to investigate trip-chaining behaviour by households. The paper reports the results of this analysis and concludes with a summary of the findings and recommendations for further investigations.     

Boundaries of the coastal zone: A survey of state laws

Abstract

A survey of coastal state legislation reveals several types of statutes affecting activities occurring in coastal regions: Coastal management statutes, wetland statutes, and shoreline statutes. Each coastal state has adopted methods to delineate coastal areas or features, whether an entire coastal zone, a limited feature such as wetlands, or shorelands. Boundary delineation is done according to linear measurements, political boundaries, roads and highways, vegetation, elevation, tidal flow, and other factors. An appendix is provided containing state statutory provisions relating to boundary‐delineation techniques.     

Time-dependent Hyperstar algorithm for robust vehicle navigation

The vehicle navigation problem studied in Bell (2009) is revisited and a time-dependent reverse Hyperstar algorithm is presented. This minimises the expected time of arrival at the destination, and all intermediate nodes, where expectation is based on a pessimistic (or risk-averse) view of unknown link delays. This may also be regarded as a hyperpath version of the Chabini and Lan (2002) algorithm, which itself is a time-dependent A^* algorithm. Links are assigned undelayed travel times and maximum delays, both of which are potentially functions of the time of arrival at the respective link. Probabilities for link use are sought that minimise the driver’s maximum exposure to delay on the approach to each node, leading to the determination of a pessimistic expected time of arrival at the destination and all intermediate nodes. Since the context considered is vehicle navigation, the probability of link use measures link attractiveness, so a link with a zero probability of use is unattractive while a link with a probability of use equal to one will have no attractive alternatives. A solution algorithm is presented and proven to solve the problem provided the node potentials are feasible and a FIFO condition applies to undelayed link travel times. The paper concludes with a numerical example.     

The opinions and attitudes of Louisiana's Coastal Zone residents toward outdoor recreational development: A perspective for planning and management

Abstract

In 1967, a new road facilitated access to a number of small, impoverished, rural communities in a marshy region along Mexico's Pacific coast. One of these—the only one situated on the Pacific shore—began to be visited by an increasing stream of tourists. This article discusses the severe sociocultural problems which the initial phase of tourism development caused in Teacapán, and argues that these are part of a syndrome which is manifest in similar situations worldwide. By anticipating this syndrome before tourism development gets underway, planners and managers of coastal tourism development in Third World nations would be better prepared to mitigate most of its severe effects.