Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Response spectrum method for extreme wave loading with higher order components of drag force

Response spectra of fixed offshore structures impacted by extreme waves are investigated based on the higher order components of the nonlinear drag force. In this way, steel jacket platforms are simplified as a mass attached to a light cantilever cylinder and their corresponding deformation response spectra are estimated by utilizing a generalized single degree of freedom system. Based on the wave data recorded in the Persian Gulf region, extreme wave loading conditions corresponding to different return periods are exerted on the offshore structures. Accordingly, the effect of the higher order components of the drag force is considered and compared to the linearized state for different sea surface levels. When the fundamental period of the offshore structure is about one third of the main period of wave loading, the results indicate the linearized drag term is not capable of achieving a reliable deformation response spectrum.     

Analysis of unsteady flow over Offshore Wind Turbine in combination with different types of foundations

Environmental effects have an important influence on Offshore Wind Turbine (OWT) power generation efficiency and the structural stability of such turbines. In this study, we use an in-house Boundary Element (BEM)—panMARE code—to simulate the unsteady flow behavior of a full OWT with various combinations of aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads in the time domain. This code is implemented to simulate potential flows for different applications and is based on a three-dimensional first-order panel method. Three different OWT configurations consisting of a generic 5 MW NREL rotor with three different types of foundations (Monopile, Tripod, and Jacket) are investigated. These three configurations are analyzed using the RANSE solver which is carried out using ANSYS CFX for validating the corresponding results. The simulations are performed under the same environmental atmospheric wind shear and rotor angular velocity, and the wave properties are wave height of 4 m and wave period of 7.16 s. In the present work, wave environmental effects were investigated firstly for the two solvers, and good agreement is achieved. Moreover, pressure distribution in each OWT case is presented, including detailed information about local flow fields. The time history of the forces at inflow direction and its moments around the mudline at each OWT part are presented in a dimensionless form with respect to the mean value of the last three loads and the moment amplitudes obtained from the BEM code, where the contribution of rotor force is lower in the tripod case and higher in the jacket case and the calculated hydrodynamic load that effect on jacket foundation type is lower than other two cases.     

Three-dimensional fluid-structure interaction case study on cubical fluid cavity with flexible bottom

In this paper, we report our study on a numerical fluid-structure interaction problem originally presented by Mok et al.(2001) in two dimensions and later studied in three dimensions by Valdés Vazquez(2007), Lombardi(2012), and Trimarchi(2012). We focus on a 3D test case in which we evaluated the sensitivity of several input parameters on the fluid and structural results. In particular, this analysis provides a starting point from which we can look deeper into specific aspects of these simulations and analyze more realistic cases, e.g., in sails design. In this study, using the commercial software ADINATM, we addressed a well-known unsteadiness problem comprising a square box representing the fluid domain with a flexible bottom modeled with structural shell elements. We compared data from previously published work whose authors used the same numerical approach, i.e., a partitioned approach coupling a finite volume solver(for the fluid domain) and a finite element solver(for the solid domain). Specifically, we established several benchmarks and made comparisons with respect to fluid and solid meshes, structural element types, and structural damping, as well as solution algorithms. Moreover, we compared our method with a monolithic finite element solution method. Our comparisons of new and old results provide an outline of best practices for such simulations.     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

Shared pilot passage plan and navigational safety during pilotage

Navigating in confined waters with a pilot aboard requires that the pilot’s intention and plan is understood by all present on the bridge. The present study investigates the effect of having a detailed route plan and monitoring it in the context of pilotage. The aim was to see how the presence of a shared pilot passage plan in the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS) affects the identification and recovery from navigational errors made by a pilot. Twenty participants, 10 with a shared route plan and 10 without, participated as navigators in a simulator scenario involving pilotage in the Oslofjord. Participants were bachelor students in nautical science. The navigation scenarios involved the intentional error by the pilot just before a predefined way point. Three measurements of relevance to navigational safety were recorded: (1) the time it took the participant to express concern, (2) the time it took the participant to correct the error (‘time to recovery’), and (3) the number of groundings. The study revealed that time to express concern and time to recovery were significantly much shorter for the group with a shared pilot passage plan presented in ECDIS than for the group without such a plan. Providing a bridge team with a shared pilot passage plan in ECDIS during pilotage might improve the ability to identify and correct navigational errors.     

Response-based analysis for Tension Leg Platform

The typical industry practice for Tension Leg Platform (TLP) design focuses on a conventional short-term design recipe, which assumes that an N-year design environment leads to an N-year response. In the response-based design method, the TLP is designed to withstand N-year responses rather than respond to N-year environmental conditions. In this paper, we present an overview and a general procedure for the response-based design method and use a case study to compare the critical TLP responses between the two methods. The results of our comparison show that the conventional short-term design method often contains an element of conservatism and that the response-based design method can reduce the design conditions and thereby achieve cost savings.     

Users’ perceptions and willingness to pay in interurban toll roads: identifying differences across regions from a nationwide survey in Spain

Users’ acceptability is considered one of the key drivers for the successful implementation of transport policy measures. This is especially crucial in the case of toll roads since they are financed through drivers’ contributions. Previous literature in this field has mainly focused on measuring users’ attitudes towards urban congestion pricing strategies. However limited research has been developed concerning interurban toll roads. Previous research shows that socioeconomic variables are not conclusive to explain users’ perceptions towards tolls. By contrast, other drivers such as regional differences seem to play a more important role, especially when charging conditions within the same nation greatly vary across regions. This paper analyzes regional differences in users’ attitudes within an asymmetrical distribution of the toll road network across regions. Based on a nationwide survey conducted to road users in interurban toll roads in Spain, we develop both a binomial logit and a censored regression (tobit) model to explore drivers’ perceptions and willingness to pay. The research concludes that users from regions with a more extensive tolled network generally show a more negative attitude towards charges, but not necessarily a lower willingness to pay. The paper also points out that an asymmetrical distribution of toll roads across regions may result in negative perceptions among those users perceiving to be unfairly treated when compared to citizens in other regions.     

An activity-based approach of investigating travel behaviour of older people

The paper presents the results of an investigation on daily activity-travel scheduling behaviour of older people by using an advanced econometric model and a household travel survey, collected in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Canada in 2011. The activity-travel scheduling model considers a dynamic time–space constrained scheduling process. The key contribution of the paper is to reveal daily activity-travel scheduling behaviour through a comprehensive econometric framework. The resulting empirical model reveals many behavioural details. These include the role that income plays in moderating out-of-home time expenditure choices of older people. Older people in the highest and lowest income categories tend to have lower variations in time expenditure choices than those in middle-income categories. Overall, the time expenditure choices become more stable with increasing age, indicating that longer activity durations and lower activity frequency become more prevalent with increasing age. Daily activity type and location choices reveal a clear random utility-maximizing rational behaviour of older people. It is clear that increasing spatial accessibility to various activity locations is a crucial factor in defining daily out-of-home activity participation of older people. It is also clear that the diversity of out-of-home activity type choices reduces with increasing age and older people are more sensitive to auto travel time than to transit or non-motorized travel time.     

Bicycle mode share in China: a city-level analysis of long term trends

In the past 15 years, cities in China have experienced big changes in socioeconomic and traffic conditions, resulting in a long term change in bicycle use. This study aims to quantify the changes in bicycle mode share in Chinese cities and explore the potential causes. Based on data from 51 cities, it is found that bicycle mode share at the city level decreased gradually in the past. Conventional bicycle mode share decreased with a rate of 3 % per year, but electric bicycle mode share increased with a rate of 2 % per year. The correlations between city features such as demographics and built environments and bicycle mode share at different city sizes are compared. The generalized linear models are estimated to relate the changes in the share of different trip modes to various city-level factors. The results show that the bicycle mode share in a city is impacted by factors including city area size, population density, number of cars, percentage of local road mileage among all roads, and trip purpose. Possible reasons for the changes in bicycle uses in Chinese cities are explored and policy implications are discussed.