Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

Tradeoffs among free-flow speed, capacity, cost, and environmental footprint in highway design

This paper investigates differentiated design standards as a source of capacity additions that are more affordable and have smaller aesthetic and environmental impacts than modern expressways. We consider several tradeoffs, including narrow versus wide lanes and shoulders on an expressway of a given total width, and high-speed expressway versus lower-speed arterial. We quantify the situations in which off-peak traffic is sufficiently great to make it worthwhile to spend more on construction, or to give up some capacity, in order to provide very high off-peak speeds even if peak speeds are limited by congestion. We also consider the implications of differing accident rates. The results support expanding the range of highway designs that are considered when adding capacity to ameliorate urban road congestion.     

Traffic noise abatement: How different pavements, vehicle speeds and traffic densities affect annoyance levels

In this paper, annoyance ratings from traffic noise recorded on cobblestones, dense asphalt, and open asphalt rubber pavements are assessed with regard to car speeds and traffic densities. It was found that cobblestones pavements are the most annoying; also while open asphalt rubber pavement imposes less annoyance than dense asphalt it is not significantly different. Higher car speeds always lead to greater annoyance, as does higher traffic densities. LAeq and LAmax correlate well with annoyance, but loudness is the best predictor. Roughness and sharpness exhibit inconsistent interactions.     

Developing an enhanced weight-based topological map-matching algorithm for intelligent transport systems

Map-matching (MM) algorithms integrate positioning data from a Global Positioning System (or a number of other positioning sensors) with a spatial road map with the aim of identifying the road segment on which a user (or a vehicle) is travelling and the location on that segment. Amongst the family of MM algorithms consisting of geometric, topological, probabilistic and advanced, topological MM (tMM) algorithms are relatively simple, easy and quick, enabling them to be implemented in real-time. Therefore, a tMM algorithm is used in many navigation devices manufactured by industry. However, existing tMM algorithms have a number of limitations which affect their performance relative to advanced MM algorithms. This paper demonstrates that it is possible by addressing these issues to significantly improve the performance of a tMM algorithm. This paper describes the development of an enhanced weight-based tMM algorithm in which the weights are determined from real-world field data using an optimisation technique. Two new weights for turn-restriction at junctions and link connectivity are introduced to improve the performance of matching, especially at junctions. A new procedure is developed for the initial map-matching process. Two consistency checks are introduced to minimise mismatches. The enhanced map-matching algorithm was tested using field data from dense urban areas and suburban areas. The algorithm identified 96.8% and 95.93% of the links correctly for positioning data collected in urban areas of central London and Washington, DC, respectively. In case of suburban area, in the west of London, the algorithm succeeded with 96.71% correct link identification with a horizontal accuracy of 9.81 m (2σ). This is superior to most existing topological MM algorithms and has the potential to support the navigation modules of many Intelligent Transport System (ITS) services.     

Novel Electrically Stimulated Catalytic Converter Prototype for Replacement of Conventional Auto Exhaust Emission Converters

High voltage electrostatics and corona discharge are utilized for various applications in pollution and environmental control. The traditional applications have many flaws due to improper construction of electrode design and assembly that cause system failure, in particular when electrically stimulated devices are exposed to high humidity. A new innovative-patented design by Hamade, electrically stimulated catalytic converter(ESCC),eliminates such flaws and shows the wide practical applications of the new design. The new design utilized previous patented designs and work of the same inventor but retrofitted for catalytic auto exhaust emission control. The current and previous patents include: employing electrically stimulated filtration(ESF) to replace high efficiency particulate air(HEPA) filters, treatment of biological and infectious diseases, electret fabrication, and, most notably, the invention of a new electrically stimulated catalytic converter(ESCC). The electrically stimulated catalytic converter invention includes an exhaust conduit fed from the engine exhaust port with a housed corona charger apparatus. The opposite end is opened to the atmosphere outside of the vehicle or connected to a reduced-size catalytic converter. The corona charger is intrusively or non-intrusively associated with a main flow path defined by the exhaust conduit. The corona charger includes at least one electrode, which may be recessed away from, the main flow path. A plurality of corona chargers may be used in various combinations, optimally a two dimensional grid. The electrically stimulated catalytic converter is adapted to treat and eliminate auto exhaust pollution emission to air.     

Experience as a conditioning effect on choice: Does it matter whether it is exogenous or endogenous?

Previous choice studies have proposed a way to condition the utility of each alternative in a choice set on experience with the alternatives accumulated over previous periods, defined either as a mode used or not in a most recent trip, or the mode chosen in their most recent trip and the number of similar one-way trips made during the last week. The paper found that the overall statistical performance of the mixed logit model improved significantly, suggesting that this conditioning idea has merit. Experience was treated as an exogenous influence linked to the scale of the random component, and to that extent it captures some amount of the heterogeneity in unobserved effects, purging them of potential endogeneity. The current paper continues to investigate the matter of endogeneity versus exogeneity. The proposed approach implements the control function method through the experience conditioning feature in a choice model. We develop two choice models, both using stated preference data. The paper extends the received contribution in that we allow for the endogenous variable to have an impact on the attributes through a two stage method, called the Multiple Indicator Solution, originally implemented in a different context and for a single (quality) attribute, in which stage two is the popular control function method. In the first stage, the entire utility expression associated with all observed attributes is conditioned on the prior experience with an alternative. Hence, we are capturing possible correlates associated with each and every attribute and not just one selected attribute. We find evidence of potential endogeneity. The purging exercise however, results in both statistical similarities and differences in time and cost choice elasticities and mean estimates of the value of travel time savings. We are able to identify a very practical method to correct for possible endogeneity under experience conditioning that will encourage researchers and practitioners to use such an approach in more advanced non-linear discrete choice models as a matter of routine.

     

Delivering mobility as a service (MaaS) through a broker/aggregator business model

Transportation - Mobility as a service (MaaS) promises a bold new future where bundled public transport and shared mobility options (carsharing, ridesharing, bikesharing and microtransit) will...     

Fuzzy-logic-based incident detection for signalized diamond interchanges

This paper documents a fuzzy-logic-based incident detection algorithm for signalized urban diamond interchanges. The model is capable of detecting lane-blocking incidents whose effects are manifested by patterns of deterioration in traffic conditions that require adjustments in signal control strategies. As a component of a real-time traffic adaptive control system for signalized diamond interchanges, the algorithm feeds an incident report (i.e., the time, location, and severity of the incident) to the system's optimization manager, which uses that information to determine the appropriate signal control strategy.The performance of the model was studied using a simulation of an actual diamond interchange. The simulation study evaluated the model's performance in terms of detection rate, false alarm rate, and mean time to detect. The model's performance was encouraging, and the fuzzy-logic-based approach is considered promising.     

地面注汽管线表面散热损失影响因素分析

文中采用Fluent模拟与理论计算结合比较的方法,研究了不同因素对蒸汽管道散热损失的影响规律,并分析了理论计算模型的相对误差.发现增加注汽管线距地面高度,对其散热损失影响较弱;空气温度升高,注汽管道表面散热损失降低;风速和表面发射率对注汽管线表面热损失影响较大;数值模拟结果与理论计算数据相对误差较大.     

The performance of route modification and demand stabilization strategies in stochastic vehicle routing

A key concern in managing vehicle routing operations under stochastic demands is whether, on the basis of travel distance, route modification yields materially greater logistical efficiency than fixed routes. This research uses statistical calibration as the primary technique to develop a robust and tractable model for estimating this difference in logistical efficiency. Based on features such as the models predictive accuracy and generalizability, it constitutes a substantive improvement over existing models. The present study also expands the range of predictive models relevant to vehicle routing under stochastic demands with models to estimate the transportation and inventory effects of persuading customers to stabilize their ordering patterns.